AFC wild card playoff race: Breaking down each team's path to the postseason, including schedules, predictions
Here's the tale of the tape for the AFC wild card race with four weeks to play
By
Bryan DeArdo
•
5 min read
There were two likely reasons why the NFL expanded its playoff field from 12 to 14 teams: money and added drama and excitement during the season's final month.
It goes without saying that the expanded playoff field has certainly added more of the later to the end of the regular season. All but two of the AFC's 16 teams are still mathematically alive for the right to earn one of the conference's seven playoff spots. No team, however, has clinched a spot with four weeks to go before the postseason begins.
Buffalo (10-3), Kansas City (10-3), Baltimore (9-4) and Tennessee (7-6) currently lead their respective divisions. The Bills have a two-game lead on the Dolphins; the Chiefs have a three-game edge on the Chargers; the Titans are two games up on the rapidly improving Jaguars. The Ravens are neck and neck with the red-hot Bengals but currently have the edge due to their Week 5 win over Cincinnati.
The Bengals, Dolphins and Patriots would be the wild card teams if the AFC playoffs started today, with the Chargers and Jets left on the outside looking in. Two teams that are currently in the mix will be home when the playoffs begin.
Below, we look through each wild card team's remaining schedule and current statuses to determine which teams will move on and which ones will be watching the playoffs with the rest of us.
Number next to team indicates its current playoff seed
5. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)
Remaining games
- at Buccaneers (6-7)
- at Patriots (7-6)
- Bills (10-3)
- Ravens (9-4)
Led by Joe Burrow, Cincinnati has won an AFC-best five consecutive games. Their last win, however, came at a cost as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins left the game early and Trey Hendrickson played through a broken wrist that will sideline him for a few games. The Bengals were able to win despite Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon's recent absences, so Cincinnati has the depth to keep the proverbial train on the tracks.
Prediction: 11-6, No. 3 seed
While their schedule is decidedly easier, Baltimore's health issues at quarterback make Cincinnati the safer bet to win the North. This is anything but a slam-dunk pick, however, given Cincinnati's remaining schedule coupled with the fact that Baltimore has one of the league's best defenses and just got back running back J.K. Dobbins. Either way, both Cincinnati and Baltimore will be in the playoffs.
6. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
Remaining games
- at Bills (10-3)
- Packers (5-8)
- at Patriots (7-6)
- Jets (7-6)
Mixed into Miami's eight wins are two multigame losing streaks. The Dolphins are currently mired in their second losing skid after dropping consecutive games on the West Coast. Sunday's game in frigid Buffalo won't be a picnic, but things lighten up after that.
Prediction: 10-7, No. 6 seed
If they had, say, Cincinnati's remaining schedule, the Dolphins would have likely been picked to fall short of the playoffs. But they should be able to split their remaining four games while ending their five-year playoff drought. Miami would surely welcome better defensive play down the stretch to complement its explosive passing attack. Speaking of that, Tua Tagovailoa will be asked on two occasions to win his first game in freezing temperatures during the season's final month.
7. New England Patriots (7-6)
Remaining games
- at Raiders (5-8)
- Bengals (9-4)
- Dolphins (8-5)
- at Bills (10-3)
Among the teams in this cluster, Bill Belichick's squad is the toughest nut to crack. Wildly inconsistent this season, the Patriots are currently riding the high of Monday night's decisive win over Arizona. The Patriots defense has largely been solid, but the offense has been anything but, which is one of the main reasons why the Patriots find themselves in their current predicament.
Prediction: 9-8, No. 8 seed
A playoff berth this January would be another well-deserved feather in Belichick's Hall of Fame-bronzed cap. The Patriots need to win Sunday's game in order to stay in the mix. A loss in Las Vegas would force New England to, at least, win two of its final three games against strong playoff contenders. Even if Belichick is able to beat his protege on Sunday, it may not be enough to get his team to the playoffs given the opponents the Patriots finish the season against.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)
Remaining games
Like New England, Los Angeles is a tough team to figure out. One thing that has remained consistent is the Chargers' penchant for losing close games, as each of the Chargers' last three losses came in one-score games. A glass half-full mentality would suggest that Los Angeles is better than its record, while a glass half-empty mindset would argue that the Chargers will lose more close games during the season's last month.
Prediction: 10-7, No. 7 seed
Clearly, the glass half-full approach was taken when assessing the Chargers' final four games. The big reason behind this thinking is the fact that Justin Herbert finally has his full complement of skill-position players back in the fold. Herbert is also motivated to avenge last year's heartbreaking finish.
One thing worth noting is should New England and Los Angeles finish with the same record, the Chargers would be left out in the cold for a second straight year. A 3-1 finish would all but secure a Chargers playoff berth, assuming New England doesn't do the same.
9. New York Jets (7-6)
Remaining games
Jets fans have probably begun bracing themselves for an inevitable collapse. It's already started, as Robert Saleh's team is just 1-3 over its last four games. New York's remaining schedule isn't terribly daunting, but an upcoming matchup against the surging Lions doesn't help matters. That being said, Sunday should be a fun, playoff-like atmosphere at MetLife Stadium.
Prediction: 8-9, No. 9 seed
For Jets fans, the fact that their team is playing meaningful football this late in the year should be cause for some celebration. New York could make things interesting by beating Detroit on Sunday, but would then have to at least split its next two games against Jacksonville and Seattle to avoid what would certainly be a must-win game in Miami in Week 18.
Given their lack of tiebreakers, a 3-1 finish is New York's best bet to make the playoffs, but a .500 finish and a 9-8 overall record could serve as a nice consolation prize. The Jets have many good pieces in place (especially on defense) but are still a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders.
