Betting impact of Antonio Brown's release: How Week 1 line vs. Broncos bounced around during saga
The Broncos are road favorites to win in Oakland, but that wasn't always the case
Back in April prior to the NFL Draft, many Vegas sportsbooks posted their initial lines on all Week 1 games. The final game of the NFL's opening weekend, Broncos at Raiders, featured a line around Raiders -2.5 at most places.
Of course, that was back when Antonio Brown was a happy camper. After all the twists and turns of the last several weeks, the Raiders cut ties with the receiver on Saturday morning. Soon after, the betting market moved on the game for the umpteenth time, generally making the road Broncos 2.5-point favorites.
But that's not the entire story. Let's follow the line movement of the Monday night matchup between the Broncos and now Brown-less Raiders throughout the offseason, with line data via Vegas Insider.
The early move (Raiders -2.5)
The line of Raiders -2.5 stayed relatively stable for much of the offseason, though we did see some back and forth between the opening line and Raiders -2 in June and July. This likely didn't have much to do with Brown, but with the market understanding that with the Broncos' win total set a full win higher than that of the Raiders, there was likely some value in taking the road underdog, as the implied odds of a Raiders -2.5 line would make the teams nearly even on a neutral field.
Early August drama (Raiders -1.5)
As news started to break on Brown's helmet grievance and cryotherapy mishap, we saw some more movement to the Broncos in the first few weeks of August. By the middle of the month, the line was Raiders -1.5 in many places, but the biggest moves were still to come.
Toss-up game in late August (Pick 'em)
By August 26, books like the Westgate and Golden Nugget started to deal the game at a pick 'em, meaning line bettors just had to decide who would win the game without taking a point spread into account. Within the next few days, many other spots also had the game at a pick 'em, though some Raiders -1 lines were out there and a few spots like Caesars even had a Broncos -1 line available for a brief time.
Suspension on the table (Broncos -2.5)
After seeing the line around pick 'em most of the week, news broke on Thursday that Brown was expected to be suspended after getting into an altercation with general manager Mike Mayock. That news caused the line to shoot up to either Broncos -2 at books like William Hill or Broncos -2.5 at other books like Westgate and Wynn. The market was valuing Brown's absence at anywhere between two and 2.5 points.
At this point, I said on the Pick Six Podcast that I didn't think Brown was worth that much to the line and that there was likely value on the Raiders at +2.5 regardless of whether he plays. You can hear our entire picks podcast below, and subscribe to the daily NFL podcast if you haven't:
Gruden says Brown will play (Broncos -1)
On Friday, everything seemed to be resolved amicably with Brown and the Raiders. Coach Jon Gruden came out and said Brown would avoid any suspension and play in Week 1. That announcement caused the line to swing back toward the Raiders, though there weren't many, if any at all, pick 'ems available in Vegas. The consensus seemed to put the line at Broncos -1, though enough Raiders +1.5 lines were accessible for anyone looking to back the home 'dog.
Brown released after social media posts (Broncos -2.5)
After more Brown drama on Friday night and Saturday morning, including Brown posting a video that appeared to include a private phone conversation with Gruden and then another post imploring the team to release him, the Raiders cut ties with the star receiver around noon ET. As you'd expect, the markets reacted quickly, with the Broncos again moving to 2.5-point favorites in most spots.
Ryan Wilson, John Breech and Sean Wagner-McGough broke down the latest development in the ongoing Brown saga in an emergency Saturday edition of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts:
Is that where the line will close now that we know definitely Brown won't be on the field for the Raiders in Week 1? Or are there more twists and turns we have yet to experience before Monday night? We'll know in just a few days.
















