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Two of the top quarterbacks in NFL history won't take snaps for the teams they finished with last year. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were popular quarterbacks for people to target with their NFL office pool picks. But with Brady retired and Rodgers joining for the Jets, what can you expect from their former teams in the Buccaneers and Packers when filling out Week 1 NFL pool picks? Baker Mayfield will start in Tampa Bay against the Vikings with Jordan Love in Green Bay against the Bears.

How confident can you be backing those two quarterbacks in your Week 1 NFL football pool picks? Before you make your NFL predictions, you need to see the Week 1 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 1 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Head to SportsLine to see them now.

Top Week 1 NFL office pool predictions

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions from the model: The Minnesota Vikings (-6) comfortably beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Although both teams made the playoffs last year, Brady being gone is a major hit for Tampa Bay since Mayfield had the worst QBR (26.3) of 31 qualified quarterbacks last season based on snaps. He started in 10 of his 12 games last season with the Panthers and Rams, with his teams going 2-8 in his starts.

The Vikings had offensive changes of their own, but they return the two most important players, Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Cousins threw for 4,547 yards in reaching 4,500 yards for just the second time in his 11-year career, and Jefferson had a head-turning season on his way to winning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Jefferson led the NFL in receptions (128) and yards (1,809) with eight touchdowns. The Vikings went 8-1 at home last season and Tampa Bay went 3-5 on the road, including losing five of their final six away games. The Vikings will take care of business in Week 1, with the model projecting them to win in well over 60% of simulations. See the rest of the model's Week 1 NFL pool picks here.

How to make Week 1 NFL office pool picks

The model also made the call on every other Week 1 NFL game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Packers vs. Bears and Bills vs. Jets. It's also calling for several favorites to struggle more than they are expected to. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.

So who should you pick in every Week 1 NFL game, and which favorites should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.