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The 2025 NFL season continues Sunday, and while you can always wager on spreads, totals and player props offered at or near the typical -110 odds line, there are ample longshot plays available across every sportsbook to boost your payday. The longer the odds, the bigger the risk, but it also means the larger the payday. And with the SportsLine model, there are some longshots involving some of the most important players in the NFL that project value to include when online sports betting the Week 1 NFL schedule.

One of the model's favorite longshot plays for Week 1 NFL bets is Cardinals Kyler Murray to throw for at least 260 yards on DraftKings Sportsbook. Murray's passing yards over/under at DraftKings is set for 222.5, but the model projects the best value of taking him at 260+ odds for a +234 (risk $100 to win $234) payout. Murray and the Cardinals are set to take on the New Orleans Saints at 1 p.m. ET, with Arizona favored by 6.5 points in the latest Week 1 NFL odds. SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your Week 1 NFL picks at various sportsbooks, They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest bet365 bonus code, where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 bet:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. 

Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Now, the model has revealed its top Week 1 NFL longshot picks: 

Best Week 1 NFL longshot picks:

  • Giants vs. Commanders Over 52.5 alternative total points (+210)
  • Bo Nix, Broncos, 250+ passing yards (+225)
  • Kyler Murray, Cardinals, 260+ passing yards (+234)

New users can play these picks with the latest DraftKings promo code, where you can get $300 in bonus bets, as well as over $200 off Sunday NFL Ticket on a $5 bet: (odds subject to change)

Giants vs. Commanders Over 52.5 alternative total points (+210)

Both teams should be at full strength for Week 1, despite Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers missing much of training camp with separate toe, shoulder, and back injuries, and Terry McLaurin missing Commanders camp in pursuit of a new contract. These two receivers are arguably two of the most essential pass-catchers to their teams this season, as clear WR1s with an expected heavy target share. Nabers was second in the NFL in targets (170), with McLaurin (22nd), as the alpha in their team's playmaking group.

The Giants should have stronger quarterback play in Week 1 than they had the majority of last season, with veteran Russell Wilson taking over the offense. Jayden Daniels enters his second season after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The SportsLine model projects 53 total points in this matchup, and with FanDuel offering Over 52.5 points at odds longer than 2-1, it sees strong value in this longshot play. 

New users can use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 wins. Claim this bonus here: 

Bo Nix, Broncos, 250+ passing yards (+225)

The 2024 NFL Draft began with three straight quarterbacks being selected and by the time the top 10 picks were in, five quarterbacks were off the board. None of them were named Bo Nix, but if some teams could go back in time, maybe they'd change the names on those draft cards. Nix led all rookies in passing yards (3,775) last season, which ranked 12th in the NFL. He became more comfortable and successful as the season progressed, throwing for at least 250 yards in five of his final seven regular-season games.

Year 2 under Sean Payton should lead to even better results for Nix, and the Broncos have one of the better matchups in the Week 1 NFL schedule. Denver opens at home against the Titans, who had the No. 1 overall pick in last year's NFL Draft. The model projects Nix to throw for 252 yards, projecting strong value in playing Nix to reach its projection at +225 odds. This play is offered at FanDuel as another chance to receive $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 wins.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals, 260+ passing yards (+234)

The Cardinals open their season against the Saints, who allowed the third-most passing yards per game (238.5) in the NFL last season. New Orleans and the Browns are the only two teams with a win total over/under of 4.5, so this isn't projected to be a great season in New Orleans. Murray threw for at least 260 yards in four of his final eight games last season, including falling just shy with 259 yards in one contest, showcasing the chance for some value at +234 odds in Week 1 NFL player props.

With an entire year and another offseason to build chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, could be in line for a more productive second season as well. Harrison had 885 yards last season, but his talent suggests stronger results for his sophomore season. That could begin in Week 1, which would boost Murray's likelihood to hit this Over as well. The model projects Murray for 265 passing yards in Week 1. You can find this play on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the latest DraftKings promo code offers new users $300 in bonus bets, as well as over $200 off Sunday NFL Ticket on a $5 bet.

Want more Week 1 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's NFL longshot picks for Week 1. Now, get NFL Week 1 projections for every NFL spread, total and player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see the model's best bets for every Week 1 NFL game, including Buccaneers vs. Falcons and Lions vs. Packers. Finally, SportsLine expert Matt Severance, who is 5-0 (+250) over his last five NFL picks, has locked in his top Week 1 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.

Want more huge paydays? The model has also built a five-leg Week 1 NFL parlay that would pay 25-1. Check out the model's Week 1 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.