NFL Playoff Picture: No clinch scenarios heading into Week 13

We are clearly seeing some parity among the top two-thirds of NFL teams this year as we still have 21 of 32 NFL teams within one game of a playoff spot. After an eventful Week 12 with the majority of league leaders coming out winners, we still do not have any playoff spot or division title-clinching scenarios heading into Week 13. This is only the second year since 2000 that we have not had any official clinching scenarios prior to Week 14 (the other year was 2010).

The historical signifcance of this unique season from a standings perspective is evidenced by these notes gathered from the NFL and Elias Sports Bureau:

Entering Week 13, there are 16 teams with at least seven wins, the most ever through 11 games in league history
The AFC has 11 teams with winning records, the most from one conference through 11 games in a season in NFL history
The lowly NFC South now, with Atlanta and New Orleans leading at 4-7, marks the first time in NFL history any division leader has been three games below .500
The crowded AFC North is the first division in NFL history to have every team at least three games over .500 at any point in a season

We did have a few teams eliminated from playoff contention during Week 12. Jacksonville joined Oakland as an eliminated team once they lost to Indianapolis and couldn't win the division and can't catch potential wild card teams. Tennessee is also eliminated from the playoffs as they can't beat out Indianapolis for the division title at 7-9 (Indy has a common opponents advantage at 6-6 to 4-8 if they tie at 7-9, split head to head and are both 4-2 in division). Also, Tennessee can't use Houston in a three-way tie to jump Indianapolis. And finally, the New York Jets joined the ranks of the eliminated with their loss to Buffalo on Monday night. The best the Jets can be now is 7-9, they can't win the division and with 7-4 clubs Baltimore and Cleveland playing and Kansas City playing San Diego on Week 17, there is no way to compete for a wild card tie.

Historical notes on these eliminations (with a strong assist from Ivan Urena, who has tracked this blog and our official scenarios submitted to the league for many years):

This is the earliest exit for the New York Jets since 1996 when the Jets were out in Week 12. That was Rich Kotite's final year as head coach of the 1-15 Jets.
Jacksonville's Week 12 elimination is their earliest since the 2003 season when the Jaguars were 2-9 after Week 12 under first-year head coach Jack Del Rio.
You have to go way back to 1994 to find the Tennessee Titans franchise eliminated in Week 12 (then the Houston Oilers, with coach Jack Pardee resigning after Week 11 and some guy named Jeff Fisher taking over as head coach for Week 12). The Oilers were 1-10 at that point and were eliminated from the playoffs.

Looking ahead, here's how we see the playoff picture at this point and where it's likely headed for individual teams and divisional/wild card races.

AFC playoff picture:

New England's convincing win over Detroit gives them a 9-2 record and a three-game lead over Miami (who lost to Denver) and Buffalo (who beat the N.Y. Jets) and the largest division lead in the NFL. The Patriots have key wins over the other three division leaders in Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver and their loss to Kansas City earlier this year may not come into play if the Chiefs continue to struggle like they did in Oakland last week to fall to 7-4. New England can't clinch next week as even if they get to 10 wins and Miami/Buffalo could get to six losses, the Dolphins can still sweep the Patriots, so that kills a division title clinch this week. And a playoff clinch won't happen at 10 wins either, with too many teams with only four losses at this point.
Miami and Buffalo currently sit at 6-5 and in the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds in the AFC. Realistically, they need to get to at least 10 wins and hope the current 7-4 teams struggle and beat each other up.
Cincinnati's win over Houston allowed the Bengals to maintain a slim division lead over a crowded AFC North at 7-3-1 and the other three teams at 7-4. The Bengals still have a home game with Pittsburgh left that will be key, but also have a sweep of Baltimore in their pocket and a 2-1 division record. With their tie against Carolina earlier this year, it's unlikely they will be involved in a year-end tiebreaker barring another tie or two in the AFC as overall record will likely be determining factor. They still control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed overall as they have a Week 16 clash with Denver and can jump the Broncos.
Baltimore is currently leading the 7-4 pack in the AFC North 2-1 in head-to-head games against Pittsburgh (2-2) and Cleveland (1-2). Pittsburgh's only remaining division games are both against Cincinnati, which leaves the Baltimore-Cleveland game on Week 17 as a key matchup among these teams. One key will be that Pittsburgh has one less conference loss at this point (6-3) than Baltimore (3-4) and Cleveland (4-4).
Indianapolis regained it's two-game lead over Houston with a win, eliminating Jacksonville to get to 7-4 and Houston's loss to Cincinnati dropping them to 5-4. Indy has a big leg up with a 4-0 division record and a win at Houston (1-1 in division) earlier this year. Houston will likely have to win out or at least go 10-6 and hope Indianapolis struggles to try to win the division... realistically their only hope.
Denver is back on top in the AFC West with their win over Miami and Kansas City's disappointing loss to Oakland. The Broncos can take a two-game lead along with a season sweep over the Chiefs with a win at K.C. this week. On the other hand, Kansas City can gain a tie with Denver and a season head-to-head split with a win at home this week, however they would still trail the Broncos on division record.
San Diego is sneaking back into the picture with a gutty win over St. Louis and they are now just one game back of Denver. The Chargers' problem is their upcoming schedule, which includes at Baltimore, New England, Denver, at San Francisco and at Kansas City. Ouch. If they can run that gauntlet and make the playoffs they will be a very deserving team (as opposed to the eventual NFC South division winner).

The Bengals are hanging on to the AFC North lead, just barely. (Getty Images)

NFC playoff picture:

Philadelphia and Dallas continued their overall winning ways and are now both at 8-3 heading into a home and home series on Weeks 13 and 15 starting in Dallas this week. The Eagles have the current tiebreaker with a 2-0 division record (Dallas is 2-1 with their Redskins loss) but that will likely be moot unless the teams split the head to head, in which case Philadelphia would likely still be on top unless they lose a tough game in between versus Seattle.
In the race for first-round byes and the No. 1 seed, the Eagles have head-to-head losses against both Arizona and Green Bay while Dallas lost to Arizona as well and doesn't play Green Bay or Detroit. Another downside for Philly and Dallas is all three of their losses so far are conference losses.
Green Bay is back on top in the NFC North and has a strong 4-1 division record, but can still be caught by Detroit as the Lions can sweep the Packers with a win in Week 17 in Green Bay. The Packers are the current No. 2 seed due to their win over Philadelphia, but if Green Bay beats New England this week and Dallas beats Philadelphia, the tiebreaker for next week would come down to strength of victory (record against teams you've beaten) and Green Bay would have the edge there (currently at .426 to .330 with both teams picking up nice wins this coming week). HOWEVER, when there are enough common opponents (Dallas still has to play Chicago in Week 14), Dallas would win that tiebreaker unless Dallas beats Chicago and loses to Philadelphia in Week 15 and they would be tied at 3-2 against common opponents... of course that might impact overall record as well.
If Detroit doesn't win the NFC North, they are likely in a wild-card battle with the NFC East non-division winner and Seattle and San Francisco. They haven't played any of them head-to-head and have a nice 5-2 conference record (only matched by Seattle at 5-2) that could help the Lions.
The NFC South. What to say? Two teams tied for the division lead through Week 12 at three games under .500 isn't the best foot forward for a division. BUT, the NFL values division championships so much that it gives the top four playoff seeds to division winners, who share 14 common opponents. So this is a race for the No. 4 seed in the NFC and Atlanta has the current edge with a head-to-head win over New Orleans in Week 1 and a 4-0 division record. Carolina is only one-half game back, but does have a 1-2 division record including losses to both the Falcons and Saints. The interesting note with the top three teams here is they all control their own destiny for the division title.
We go from a relatively weak division to a very strong division in the NFC West. Arizona stubbed their toe this past week at Seattle and lost a great chance to lock up the division title soon. Even with that, they still have a two-game lead but now can be swept by Seattle. Arizona also holds head-to-head wins over Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit and San Francisco and has a solid 7-1 conference record so they are still in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed.
Seattle is now in a better position for a wild card spot and to chase down Arizona in the West, but they have a very tough schedule ahead with games at San Francisco, at Philadelphia, vs. San Francisco, at Arizona and vs. St. Louis. Their 5-2 conference record may help come wild card time and they do have a win over Green Bay and can beat Philly, but they did lose to Dallas already.
San Francisco keeps winning despite a sputtering offense and is locked in the wild card race. The 49ers have two games against Seattle starting in Week 13 at home and they still have two AFC games left with San Diego and Oakland. Their Week 17 game at home against Arizona could be interesting if the 49ers are fighting for a wild card spot and Arizona has a No. 1 or No. 2 seed locked up.

We will likely see more eliminations in Week 13 as the Giants, Redskins and perhaps the Vikings and Rams are hanging on to their playoff hopes by a thin margin.

Here's my weekly take on eventual playoff seeds based on team performance, upcoming schedules and likely tiebreakers (sticking with last week's prognostication):

AFC: 1.) New England 2.) Denver 3.) Indianapolis 4.) Baltimore 5.) Kansas City 6.) Cleveland

NFC: 1.) Arizona 2.) Green Bay 3.) Philadelphia 4.) New Orleans 5.) Detroit 6.) Dallas

Joe Ferreira is an NFL playoffs expert in his 23rd season of handling official playoff scenarios for the NFL. Follow Joe on Twitter: @JoeNFL.