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Two AFC teams sitting at 1-1 on the season face off in NFL Week 3 as the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Paramount+. Drake Maye and the Patriots rebounded from a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders with a 33-27 win against the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers secured a Week 1 win against the New York Jets but returned to Earth with a 31-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Pittsburgh is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Patriots odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. The Steelers are -117 money line favorites (risk $117 to win $100), while the Patriots are -102 underdogs. Before making any Patriots vs. Steelers picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine Projection Model. Be sure to watch this game on CBS and Paramount+, where new users can get a free one-week trial. Sign up here. 

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Where to watch Steelers vs. Patriots on Sunday

When: Sunday, Sept. 21
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Patriots vs. Steelers betting preview

Odds: Steelers -1.5, over/under 44.5

Long story short, the Steelers have looked like two different teams through the first two games. It could still be too early to say whether that Rodgers' performance is the catalyst, since he had a four-TD outing against the Jets and then was 18-for-33 with two interceptions against the Seahawks. (Not to mention that he's already been sacked seven times.) Pittsburgh's defense has given up with fourth-most yards per game through two weeks (394.5) and the fourth-most points (31.5).

Meanwhile, the Patriots got their first win in Miami since 2019. Maye has been solid, averaging 258.5 yards per game with three touchdowns, although he has also already been sacked seven times. The defense has been lopsided, being the third-most efficient against the rush (58.5 yards per game) but the worst against the pass (315.0). One bright spot for the Pats defense is that cornerback Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) has returned to practice, and he would be a huge asset in covering DK Metcalf in Week 3.

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Model's Steelers vs. Patriots predictions, picks

This game looks like a toss-up between two teams ironing out some early-season kinks, but the model is leaning toward a comeback performance from Mike Tomlin's men. The SportsLine model projects Pittsburgh will cover the spread in 61% of simulations.

Want more Week 3 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 3 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.