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The Houston Texans (8-7) will try to keep themselves squarely in the AFC playoff race when they face the Tennessee Titans (5-10) in an AFC South battle on Sunday afternoon. Houston is sitting in a three-way tie atop the division standings, and it is also in four-way tie in the race for the final AFC Wild Card spot. Tennessee has been eliminated from playoff contention after losing three of its last four games, with all three of those losses coming by three points. Houston notched a 19-16 win over Tennessee in overtime when these rivals met two weeks ago.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday from NRG Stadium in Houston. The Texans are 4-point favorites in the latest Titans vs. Texans odds, while the over/under for total points is 44. Before entering any Texans vs. Titans picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Tennessee vs. Houston. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Titans vs. Texans:

  • Texans vs. Titans spread: Texans -4
  • Texans vs. Titans over/under: 44 points
  • Texans vs. Titans money line: Texans -205, Titans +169
  • Texans vs. Titans picks: See picks here
  • Texans vs. Titans live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Texans can cover

Tennessee has been one of the worst road teams in the NFL dating back to the end of last season, losing nine of its last 10 games away from home. The Titans have struggled in this rivalry as well, failing to cover the spread in five of the last six meetings. Houston also has a massive motivational edge, as the Texans are still in the middle of the playoff hunt with two weeks remaining.

They already beat Tennessee on the road without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, as backup Case Keenum led Houston to a victory in overtime two weeks ago. Stroud (concussion) is trending in the right direction as far as a potential return this weekend, which would give the Texans a boost. Regardless, the Texans have showcased more firepower than the Titans throughout the season, and they have significantly more motivation at this stage of the campaign. See which team to pick here.

Why the Titans can cover

While Tennessee has lost three of its last four games, all three of those losses have come by just three points. The Titans also pulled off a huge upset win over Miami during that stretch, so they have not stopped competing at the end of the season. Running back Derrick Henry has rushed for more than 85 yards in two of his last four outings, including last week's game against Seattle. 

He finished with 88 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Rookie quarterback Will Levis sat out last week due to an ankle injury, but he returned to practice earlier this week and doesn't have an injury designation heading into this game. The Texans have only covered the spread three times in their last nine games, including once in their last five home games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Texans vs. Titans picks

The model has simulated Titans vs. Texans 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texans vs. Titans, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Titans vs. Texans spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 178-129 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.