The Ravens will overcome their injuries and beat the Saints, plus other best bets for Monday
The Ravens are 16-5 straight up as a road favorite since 2019
By
Tom Fornelli
•
4 min read
The Indianapolis Colts fired Frank Reich Monday, in a move that qualifies as big news on its own. However, the Colts did something else that garnered far more attention. They named Jeff Saturday the team's interim coach for the rest of the season.
Yes, that's right, the same Jeff Saturday, whom you can currently catch on ESPN as an NFL analyst, who is also a member of the Colts Ring of Honor. They did this despite Saturday having no coaching experience above the high school level and two coaches -- John Fox and Gus Bradley -- on staff with plenty of head coaching experience.
But, hey, how much worse can things get? You get the impression that other significant changes will come to the organization.
- Week 9 NFL overreactions and reality checks.
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- Alabama needs to fix its offense.
OK, let's make some money
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Ravens at Saints, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- Key Trend: The Ravens are 16-5 straight up as a road favorite since 2019.
- The Pick: Ravens (-120)
The Ravens come into tonight's game with an injury report full of important names. Tight end Mark Andrews is out, while running back Gus Edwards, corner Marcus Peters and roughly 1,000 other players are questionable or probable. It's having an impact on the spread, as at full strength, the Ravens would be favored by more, but the spread is fair, and I'm staying away from it tonight.
However, that doesn't mean I'm staying away from the Ravens. While the Baltimore offense has hit a bit of a rut in recent weeks, it still has Lamar Jackson, and while Andy Dalton has played better than he's getting credit for in place of Jameis Winston, I'm still betting on Lamar over Andy Dalton. It seemed to work well enough when Dalton was in Cincinnati.
The Saints look better statistically than the Ravens in a lot of key areas I care about, but the Saints have also played a much easier schedule in the NFC South. The Saints SOS typically ranks between the 10th and 15th-easiest in the league so far. Baltimore ranks as one of the five most difficult. Had Baltimore faced the same schedule New Orleans has, I'd wager their metrics would look quite a bit better than they currently do, and they're already pretty good. Plus, Baltimore is coming into this game off 10 days rest as it last played in a Thursday night win over Tampa Bay.
While the rest is great for a team as banged up as Baltimore is, I think the additional days of preparation work to Baltimore's benefit more than anything, as John Harbaugh's team has always performed well coming off a bye. Since Harbaugh took over in 2008, the Ravens are 12-4 straight up coming off a bye and 29-15 straight up when they have a rest advantage over their opponents.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Mike Tierney is 35-14-2 in his last 51 ATS picks involving the Ravens, and he's got a spread play posted for tonight.
💰 NBA Picks
Blazers at Heat, 8:30 p.m | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Over 215 (-110) -- The Miami Heat are off to a 4-6 start and it isn't hard to figure out why. This is a team that's built its entire culture and identity about being strong defensively, but they enter the night ranked 15th in the league in defensive rating, and when you combine that with an offensive net rating that ranks 22nd, well, that's how you lose 60% of the time.
Meanwhile, Portland is 11th in defensive rating after being horrible in that department last season. While I don't think it's a fluke, I'm still skeptical the Blazers are as tight defensively as they've been this season, and I have questions about how well they'll do on the road tonight against a Miami team in need of a win. Damian Lillard's injury status is playing a role in this total being so low as well, and my read is that it's too low.
Celtics at Grizzlies, 9 p.m | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Under 231 (-110) -- This is a battle of two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, so why not take an under? The Celtics rank second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 117.5 points per 100 possessions, while Memphis is seventh at 114.8. Defensively, neither has been very good, with Boston rankings 23rd, just behind Memphis in 22nd.
So why am I taking the under? Well, it's the pace I'm looking to take advantage of. Neither one of these teams moves quickly.
The Grizzlies rank 14th in the league in pace, while the Celtics are 21st. Also, while Boston might not have one of the best defenses in the league statistically, the foundations of a good defense are there. They have the perimeter defenders necessary to slow down Ja Morant better than most teams can, and while this won't be a rock fight, I like our chances of finishing below this total.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: College basketball starts tonight! SportsLine's Matt Severance has shared his best futures bets for the season for the 2022-23 season.
