The Rams and Chiefs are fresh off a week at home after putting on the best show of the NFL season two Mondays ago, a game the Rams won 54-51. No one without a horse in the race would complain if we got a rematch in nine weeks in Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII.

Coming out of their bye, both teams find themselves as massive favorites on the road. Teams after a bye that are favored by at least 10 points are 9-8 against the spread since 1992, with the latest such game coming just a week ago when the Patriots covered against the Jets. Teams that are road favorites of at least 10 points regardless of coming off a bye or not are 13-10 ATS over the last six seasons, though that follows a 2-17 ATS stretch from late 2009 through 2012.

So who can you trust to cover amongst these two juggernauts?

Let's look at the Rams first. While they're third in points scored on the season and near the top of any offensive metric you can find, their mediocre defense has prevented them from covering many spreads lately. Despite averaging more than 35 points per game over their last eight contests, the Rams own a 1-6-1 ATS record during that stretch, and many people who played them last week when they pushed on the closing number likely had them at Rams -3.5, the spread for much of the week after the game was relocated to L.A. Detroit's defense isn't great, which is why the Rams are favored by 10 this week, but Matthew Stafford can score some points against bad defenses, and that's what the Rams have been dealing with for much of the season.

Now let's take the Chiefs, who are 8-2-1 ATS this season and likely had a ninth cover for many people last week with the opportunity to bet them at +3.5 most of the week. Their other two non-covers were against the Cardinals in a game they won easily but didn't cover by a few points, and against the Broncos in a game where they had the cover until the Broncos kicked a field goal with less than two minutes left to turn a 10-point lead into a seven-point win and non-cover. The biggest factor could be Andy Reid, who is 13-6 ATS after a bye including a loss last year against the Giants in an extremely windy game that tempered scoring. Reid is 16-3 straight up after a bye and has been on the road after a bye in all six years in Kansas City. He'll get to face a Raiders team that is either the worst in the league or close to it.

The Rams and Chiefs are two of the best teams in the league, but only one deserves to be laying double digits on the road this week. 

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If you want to know which sides I like this week, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on each game each week right here.

Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. Let's get to it.

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My picks

Over at SportsLine, I already have picks up for this weekend, and I'll likely have more coming on Friday. Join now and use promo code WHITE for $1 on your first month and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.

However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!

Saints (-7.5) at Cowboys

Home-field advantage: 2 points
Power rating line: Saints -5.5
Lookahead line: Saints -7.5


NODAL
Record vs. spread 9-2 6-5
Yards per play differential 0.3 0.0
Points per drive offense rank 1 16
Points per drive defense rank 23 6
Weighted DVOA 31.3 -9.4
Pass offense DVOA rank 3 27
Pass defense DVOA rank 21 20
Run offense DVOA rank 7 15
Run defense DVOA rank 3 8

I have the Saints as my No. 1 team in power ratings, a full point better than the two teams tied for No. 2. But the Cowboys have proven to be better than average, even if DVOA doesn't agree, and as a result I think this line is inflated by a couple points. But you can bet I'm not rushing to hop in front of the Saints train, especially not on a Thursday when favorites have been covering those games at an incredible clip this season.

The Saints rank third in rush defense DVOA but also second in yards per carry and first in carries and yards allowed. That last ranking isn't surprising, as many teams fall behind the Saints quickly and have to abandon the run. If that happens to the Cowboys, they could be sunk, even considering how much Amari Cooper has helped. Can Dak Prescott go toe to toe with Drew Brees if needed? If the Cowboys don't keep this one close at home, you can forget about them as a darkhorse Super Bowl candidate.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Visit SportsLine now to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.  

Colts (-4) at Jaguars

Home-field advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating line: Colts -2.5
Lookahead line: Colts -2


INDJAC
Record vs. spread 5-5-1 3-6-2
Yards per play differential 0.2 -0.1
Points per drive offense rank 5 28
Points per drive defense rank 18 8
Weighted DVOA 8.7 -7.6
Pass offense DVOA rank 13 29
Pass defense DVOA rank 23 11
Run offense DVOA rank 17 21
Run defense DVOA rank 5 9

These two teams played in Week 10 in Indianapolis and pushed on a line that had the Colts favored by three points. Now that the rematch has shifted to Jacksonville, the Colts are even bigger favorites?

The Jaguars offense has obviously performed poorly this season, and considering how bad Blake Bortles has been the last few weeks, I'm not sure Cody Kessler is a downgrade. The bigger concern on both sides could be injuries; the Colts were missing several key players on offense to start the week, while the Jaguars could be without Jalen Ramsey in the secondary. Throw out their records, and these teams are closer than the line indicates, but injuries could play a massive part of who gets the cover.

Panthers (-3.5) at Buccaneers

Home-field advantage: 2 points
Power rating line: Panthers -2
Lookahead line: Panthers -4.5


CARTB
Record vs. spread 5-6 4-6-1
Yards per play differential 0.3 0.2
Points per drive offense rank 7 11
Points per drive defense rank 26 29
Weighted DVOA 5.4 -18.9
Pass offense DVOA rank 11 10
Pass defense DVOA rank 27 32
Run offense DVOA rank 4 22
Run defense DVOA rank 7 27

Yards per play and points per drive thinks these are two similar teams, but DVOA is where you'll find the divergence. That's thanks in large part to the running game; the Panthers have an elite rush offense and a top-tier rush defense, while the Bucs' struggles doing both are only surpassed by their pass defense. 

The one thing the Bucs do well is throw the ball, and Carolina has had issues defending the pass all year. They were easily able to take care of Tampa Bay at home earlier in the year, however, though that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm of the Bucs offense. Throw in the fact that the Panthers are 5-1 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road, and this figures to be anybody's game, even considering Tampa doesn't translate into a huge home-field advantage for the Bucs.

Ravens at Falcons (-1)

Home-field advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating line: Ravens -1
Lookahead line: n/a


BALATL
Record vs. spread 5-6 3-8
Yards per play differential 0.6 -0.1
Points per drive offense rank 15 6
Points per drive defense rank 2 31
Weighted DVOA 12.7 -10.2
Pass offense DVOA rank 16 6
Pass defense DVOA rank 5 29
Run offense DVOA rank 10 30
Run defense DVOA rank 6 31

The Falcons are a bottom-four team in three of the four things you need to do on offense and defense, but atop-tier passing offense is the great equalizer. The Ravens might not be the best matchup for them though, as Baltimore's losses have largely come when a team can shut down their running game. Not only has Baltimore racked up 509 yards on the ground over the last two games combined, but Atlanta has one of the worst rush defenses in the league, ranking 31st in DVOA and 30th in yards per carry allowed.

In order to keep up with Baltimore, Matt Ryan will need to engineer long drives against a well-rounded defense that ranks first in net yards per attempt allowed and fifth in pass DVOA. The Falcons couldn't beat the Cowboys at home or the Browns on the road in recent weeks, and the way Baltimore is running the ball and playing defense, the Ravens might be a better version of both those teams. So it interesting that after the line opened Ravens -3, sharps were quick to jump all over the Falcons and bet them to being favored. They sure have more faith in that team than I do.

Browns at Texans (-6)

Home-field advantage: 3.5 points
Power rating line: Texans -5.5
Lookahead line: Texans -6


CLEHOU
Record vs. spread 7-4 5-6
Yards per play differential -0.6 0.6
Points per drive offense rank 26 18
Points per drive defense rank 9 3
Weighted DVOA -10.4 8.5
Pass offense DVOA rank 25 14
Pass defense DVOA rank 4 14
Run offense DVOA rank 25 28
Run defense DVOA rank 25 2

The Browns are on a bit of a hot streak, winners of two straight, including one on the road for the first time since Week 5 ... of 2015. But DVOA paints a pretty bleak picture of a team that can only do one thing well: defend the pass. That suits them well against teams like Cincinnati and Atlanta with good pass offenses tied with so-so running games and awful defenses.

The Texans are a whole 'nother ball game. They don't run the ball very well per DVOA, yet they're coming off a 281-yard performance on the ground on Monday night and have also run for 188 yards and 167 yards in games this season. And the Houston defense should give Cleveland their toughest test maybe of the entire season and at least since they won an ugly 12-9 game against the Ravens in Week 5.

Bills at Dolphins (-4.5)

Home-field advantage: 3.5 points
Power rating line: Dolphins -7
Lookahead line: n/a


BUFMIA
Record vs. spread 5-6 6-5
Yards per play differential -0.6 -0.8
Points per drive offense rank 31 27
Points per drive defense rank 13 21
Weighted DVOA -21.8 -9.0
Pass offense DVOA rank 32 24
Pass defense DVOA rank 1 22
Run offense DVOA rank 26 16
Run defense DVOA rank 15 18

DVOA will tell you that the Dolphins are the better team, but the Bills actually have the better yards-per-play differential thanks to their elite offense, which ranks No. 2 overall in DVOA. And their offense isn't even the worst in the NFL anymore (thanks, Cardinals!). Both these teams' offenses aren't likely to scare many people, but both had to make do without their starting quarterbacks for an extended stretch, so it's possible they're not quite as bad as we think.

The Dolphins secretly have one of the better home-field advantages in the league, and they're 4-1 at home this year (as well as 1-5 on the road). The team is also 5-2 straight up at home in divisional games since Adam Gase took over. But that Bills pass defense could make it tough for the Dolphins to jump out to a huge lead without creating turnovers; the Bills gave the ball away 14 times during a four-game losing streak starting in Week 6 but had zero turnovers during their two-game winning streak.

Bears at Giants (NL)

Home-field advantage: 2 points
Power rating line: Bears -4.5
Lookahead line: Bears -4


CHINYG
Record vs. spread 8-3 5-5-1
Yards per play differential 0.7 -0.1
Points per drive offense rank 13 19
Points per drive defense rank 1 24
Weighted DVOA 20.9 -7.4
Pass offense DVOA rank 15 19
Pass defense DVOA rank 2 28
Run offense DVOA rank 13 19
Run defense DVOA rank 1 17

The Bears keep rolling behind the best defense in the league and an offense that is average at worst. The Bears haven't had much of a ground game in recent weeks, but it hasn't mattered; they won their last four games by at least five points each while rushing for more than 64 yards just once in that stretch. 

Will the Giants be the team to break through offensively against this unit? They's scored plenty of points in their last three games but have also been held to 18 or fewer in five of their 11 games this year (all losses). The Bears defense has been dominant wherever it's played this year, save for a fluky loss to the Dolphins in Miami. The SuperContest set this line at Bears -5.5, which says to me they expect Mitchell Trubisky to return for this matchup.

Broncos (-5) at Bengals

Home-field advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating line: Broncos -4.5
Lookahead line: Bengals -2.5


DENCIN
Record vs. spread 5-5-1 5-6
Yards per play differential -0.1 -0.5
Points per drive offense rank 20 12
Points per drive defense rank 15 32
Weighted DVOA 21.8 -10.6
Pass offense DVOA rank 20 17
Pass defense DVOA rank 3 26
Run offense DVOA rank 3 14
Run defense DVOA rank 13 28

These are two 5-6 teams on completely different tracks, hence the line of Broncos -5 in Cincinnati. Advanced stats love Denver, so much so that DVOA wouldn't have any issue if the Broncos were favored by five against an Andy Dalton-led Bengals team. That's how poorly the Bengals defense has played, ranking last in points, yards and plays per drive and bottom of the pack in virtually every defensive statistic. 

The Broncos are a much better team at home, though they managed to beat the Chargers and Cardinals in two of their last three road games while covering against the Chiefs, something not many teams have managed. With Jeff Driskel at quarterback, are the Bengals that much better than the Cardinals, a team Denver beat 45-10 on a short week in Arizona?

Rams (-10) at Lions

Home-field advantage: 3 points
Power rating line: Rams -7.5
Lookahead line: Rams -7


LARDET
Record vs. spread 4-6-1 6-5
Yards per play differential 0.6 -0.8
Points per drive offense rank 3 17
Points per drive defense rank 25 27
Weighted DVOA 31.1 -22.8
Pass offense DVOA rank 4 22
Pass defense DVOA rank 7 31
Run offense DVOA rank 1 18
Run defense DVOA rank 29 22

The Lions haven't looked great in recent weeks, edging out the Panthers at home for a win but losing four of their last five games, including two at home. However, this is a team like most that typically plays better at home. The Rams offense will be the toughest test for them yet, but the Rams defense has been letting teams stay in games.

In fact, the Rams have covered just once in their last eight games precisely because the line has been inflated thanks to their offensive fireworks. But they've given up 127 points in their last three games, and while yes, two of those were against the Saints and the Chiefs, they also allowed the Vikings and Seahawks to score 31 and the Packers to get to 27 during this stretch of mostly failing to cover. These stats may say the Rams deserve to be 10-point favorites on the road, but the scoreboard has disagreed for the last two months.

Cardinals at Packers (-14)

Home-field advantage: 4 points
Power rating line: Packers -10.5
Lookahead line: Packers -11.5


ARIGB
Record vs. spread 5-5-14-6-1
Yards per play differential -1.1 0.6
Points per drive offense rank 3214
Points per drive defense rank 2016
Weighted DVOA -37.911.5
Pass offense DVOA rank 319
Pass defense DVOA rank 917
Run offense DVOA rank 312
Run defense DVOA rank 2123

Just when I thought I'd seen everything, a team with a losing record is favored by two touchdowns in December. It's only happened seven times going back to 1981, with the small sample size ending in a 4-2-1 ATS record for the favorites. This matchup will have a higher total (currently 44.5) than all but one of those games, the one back in 1981 where Washington beat the Baltimore Colts 38-14. The Over was 6-1 in those matchups, so maybe that's the way to play this game.

It's easy to see why the Cardinals are massive underdogs, as they rank last in DVOA, first downs and points, yards and plays per drive on offense as well as plenty of other metrics. But do the Packers deserve to be 14-point favorites with their baned up roster and a team that's won just once in its last five games. It's worth noting that while Green Bay is 4-6-1 on the season, they're 0-6 on the road and 4-0-1 at home. I don't know about 14 points, but they should be plenty safe to use in survivor pools and moneyline parlays.

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders

Home-field advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating line: Chiefs -14.5
Lookahead line: Chiefs -13.5


KCOAK
Record vs. spread 8-2-1 3-8
Yards per play differential 1.0 -1.1
Points per drive offense rank 2 29
Points per drive defense rank 26 30
Weighted DVOA 42.4 -30.1
Pass offense DVOA rank 1 18
Pass defense DVOA rank 13 30
Run offense DVOA rank 5 24
Run defense DVOA rank 32 30

The Chiefs are only eight points across three games from being 11-0 ATS against the closing number this year, so if they fail to cover, it won't be by much. They've become a favorite of teaser players, covering every six-point teaser on the season. While the Raiders have covered three times this season, they couldn't manage it as double-digit 'dogs against the Chargers (at home) or the Ravens (in Baltimore). Now they have to try to do so against the best offense in football.

The Chiefs defense had been playing better before the shootout against the Rams, giving up just 68 points in the team's previous four games combined before allowing 54 against the Rams. The Raiders fall a lot closer to the lower end of the spectrum offensively than to the Rams, so this could be a case where the team has the cover buttoned up by halftime. Whatever the first-half line is, it'll certainly look juicy to Chiefs backers.

Jets at Titans (-7.5)

Home-field advantage: 3.5 points
Power rating line: Titans -9.5
Lookahead line: n/a


NYJTEN
Record vs. spread 3-8 6-5
Yards per play differential -0.6 -0.5
Points per drive offense rank 30 25
Points per drive defense rank 11 12
Weighted DVOA -19.4 -14.4
Pass offense DVOA rank 30 23
Pass defense DVOA rank 15 25
Run offense DVOA rank 27 23
Run defense DVOA rank 19 11

Are the Titans just a slightly better version of the Jets? That's what the stats above suggest, and after the Titans were blown out by the Colts and Texans in back-to-back games, it's hard to see why this team is favored by so much, even at home. That a team can beat the Cowboys in Dallas and the Patriots by 24 points before losing by 28 in Indianapolis and 17 in Houston is pretty confounding.

The Jets have managed to score 48 points against the Lions, 42 against the Colts and 34 against the Broncos. Ignore the other eight games, and that's a pretty excellent team. But they haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their eight losses, and they've been held to 12 or less five times. If they don't find that flash of brilliance on offense -- and it's hard to see that happening with their top two QBs on the injury report -- the Titans just need to find a little big of success against a mediocre Jets defense to get a cover. But with how they've played lately, it's no guarantee they can do even that. Under, anyone?

Vikings at Patriots (-5)

Home-field advantage: 3.5 points
Power rating line: Patriots -5.5
Lookahead line: Patriots -6


MINNE
Record vs. spread 6-4-1 7-4
Yards per play differential 0.6 0.1
Points per drive offense rank 23 8
Points per drive defense rank 4 14
Weighted DVOA 8.9 13.5
Pass offense DVOA rank 12 7
Pass defense DVOA rank 8 19
Run offense DVOA rank 32 8
Run defense DVOA rank 4 10

The Vikings have a well-rounded defense that is a little more vulnerable when they take the road, which is obviously the case this week. On offense, their struggles running the ball could be a problem, especially if the Patriots' gameplan is to give their corners help in the passing game and let the Vikings try to run against a solid front seven.  

The Vikings defense probably can't count much on turnovers; after New England gave the ball away at least once in each of its first seven games, they haven't had a turnover in the last four. While the offense was stymied by Matt Patricia and Mike Vrabel, the Patriots have scored at least 20 on everyone else, including at least 27 in all five of their home games to day (all wins). The Patriots offense against the Vikings defense will be strength vs. strength, but it's possible with the offensive upside on both sides that this could turn into a bit of a shootout.

49ers at Seahawks (-10)

Home-field advantage: 3.5 points
Power rating line: Seahawks -9.5
Lookahead line: Seahawks -8.5


SFSEA
Record vs. spread 3-8 6-3-2
Yards per play differential 0.1 -0.6
Points per drive offense rank 21 9
Points per drive defense rank 22 17
Weighted DVOA -25.2 10.3
Pass offense DVOA rank 26 5
Pass defense DVOA rank 24 10
Run offense DVOA rank 29 12
Run defense DVOA rank 14 20

The Seahawks have poor yards per play numbers thanks in large part to an offense that prefers to run the ball over putting it in the air, with 351 carries on the season and only 309 pass attempts. As a result, DVOA sees an efficient offense that ranks 11th overall and fifth passing the ball, though they don't do it enough to carry the offense to a higher overall ranking. Despite some tough matchups, Seattle has racked up 20 first downs or more in each of their last five games since the bye, while they topped out at 20 first downs in their first six games before the week off. They've also played seven games on the road this year and have just one road game in their final five.

Speaking of road games, Nick Mullens got his first taste of the road last week and only managed to get nine points against a porous Tampa Bay defense. That loss makes the 49ers 0-6 straight up on the road this year no matter which of their three quarterbacks has started. Seattle should be a safe play for survivor pools and moneyline teasers as a result.

Chargers at Steelers (-3.5)

Home-field advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating line: Steelers -2
Lookahead line: Steelers -4


LACPIT
Record vs. spread 6-5 6-4-1
Yards per play differential 1.3 1.2
Points per drive offense rank 4 10
Points per drive defense rank 5 7
Weighted DVOA 28.2 17.0
Pass offense DVOA rank 2 8
Pass defense DVOA rank 6 16
Run offense DVOA rank 6 9
Run defense DVOA rank 16 12

This matchup between two AFC contenders was flexed to primetime, where the Chargers are 25-16-1 ATS since Philip Rivers took over as the starting quarterback. Conversely, the Steelers are 33-30-2 ATS in primetime since Ben Roethlisberger's rookie season. The Chargers have been a statistical darling this year, and their three losses were to two of the top three teams in the leagues (Chiefs, Rams) and by one to the Broncos at the last second despite putting up 479 yards of offense.

Yet the Chargers find themselves as underdogs, and 'dogs of more than three points, against a Steelers team that likewise has a great yards-per-play differential if not quite as impressive stats otherwise. The Steelers also lost to the Broncos to end a long winning streak while putting up an insane amount of yardage, and a team hasn't come within two touchdowns of them in Pittsburgh since the Ravens beat them in Week 4. Will the Steelers' home-field advantage be able to overcome the Chargers' stronger stats?

Redskins at Eagles (-6.5)

Home-field advantage: 3 points
Power rating line: Eagles -6
Lookahead line: Eagles -7


WASPHI
Record vs. spread 7-4 3-8
Yards per play differential -0.6 -0.6
Points per drive offense rank 24 22
Points per drive defense rank 10 19
Weighted DVOA -8.3 -11.6
Pass offense DVOA rank 28 21
Pass defense DVOA rank 12 18
Run offense DVOA rank 11 20
Run defense DVOA rank 26 24

Washington is rolling out a backup quarterback; otherwise, these stats suggest this line would be entirely out of whack. The road team is used to being doubted, racking up a 7-4 ATS record, while the Eagles have failed to reach expectations week after week, covering just three times all year and just once on a Sunday (two of their covers were vs. Atlanta on Thursday to open the season and at the Giants on a Thursday).

Is Washington in that bad of a place with Colt McCoy? They managed 23 points and 331 yards of offense on the road on a short week against a Cowboys team that's ranked near the top of several metrics and a solid 13th in overall DVOA. McCoy should figure to have a much easier test against the Eagles' ravaged secondary, and he gives the offense a little more downfield presence than Alex Smith did. If Washington's defense shows up, this team could spring an upset here.

Teaser of the Week

Patriots +1 vs. Vikings
Ravens +7 at Falcons

If you're reading this on a Thursday, I'd definitely try to work the Saints into a teaser, as I can't see the Cowboys being the team to trip up what looks like the best team in the league. But since I limit myself to the weekend games, I'm going to start by taking the Patriots to beat the Vikings and maintain their perfect home record and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. On the other leg, I don't see the Ravens getting blown out by a Falcons team that has been spiraling.

The teaser of the week is 8-4 after the Seahawks easily covered in Carolina and the Colts roared back to a three-point win and covered our 1.5-point spread.