Thursday presents a fairly confusing slate overall. Two-thirds of the NBA games on the board have lines of at least 7.5 points. Thursday Night Football is between two divisional opponents desperate to cling to their fairly limited playoff hopes. I'm not even going to attempt to dive into the vortex of randomness that is professional hockey. The likelihood of shenanigans tonight are fairly high, and the best defense against them is points. 

With one notable exception, underdogs should rule the day. That is true in the relatively lower-scoring world of football, and it will be true on an NBA schedule that is anticipating multiple blowouts. When in doubt, take the points and run. All lines via William Hill.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Steelers +3

The Steelers have forced 26 turnovers this season, second-most in all of football behind a New England Patriots defense that is going to break every conceivable fantasy record. The Browns have turned the ball over 17 times, fifth-most in football, but only one of the four teams ahead of them (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) has not changed quarterbacks during the season. Yes, turnover numbers are fairly unsustainable, but at this level, they shouldn't be ignored either. 

Pittsburgh's defense since adding Minkah Fitzpatrick has been built around generating turnovers, and Cleveland's offense all season has found it impossible to avoid them. Three-point lines in general are practically coin flips, but if one team is far likelier to win the turnover battle, odds are that team is going to cover.

SportsLine No. 1 NFL expert Larry Hartstein is a sizzling 36-19 against the spread this season, and he's released a strong spread pick for Thursday night's game. See which side of TNF he likes over at SportsLine.

2. Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks: Mavericks -7.5

The fact that the Knicks have already beaten the Mavericks this season -- and in the last week, no less -- is going to make some people queasy about giving this many points on the road, but given New York's overall performance this season, that outcome is unlikely to repeat itself. The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA by net rating and trail the Golden State Warriors in terms of record by only a half-game. They are playing a motivated Mavericks team due to last week's loss, and obviously a motivated Mavericks star in Kristaps Porzingis based on everything that happened between the two sides when Porzingis was in New York. Revenge games come in all shapes and sizes, but this is as close to a lock as you'll ever see in that vein. 

If the points still make you uncomfortable, considering teasing this game with the Steelers. Pittsburgh hasn't lost a game by more than four points since Week 1, so pushing that line up a few points is a fairly safe bet, and only two of New York's nine losses have come by four points or fewer, so a few extra points should make this one a lock.

DFS millionaire Mike McClure is off to a blistering start in the 2019-20 NBA season, cashing on a majority of his optimal lineups. He's back with more optimal plays for Thurssday, and you can see his lineups only at SportsLine.  

3. Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets: Nets +8.5

The Nuggets are 7-3 so far this season, but only one of those wins was by more than eight points. They would be 1-8 against an 8.5-point spread this season, and it's not hard to see why. Denver's previously dominant offense is stuck at No. 21 in the NBA. There just isn't enough evidence to suggest that they can score enough points against anyone to justify an 8.5-point line, let alone the No. 7 offense in basketball. Denver should probably come away with this win. The cover, however, is another matter entirely.

Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 11 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated picks.