Vikings at Bears: Prediction, odds, key matchups, how to watch, stream 'Monday Night Football' in Week 10

The Bears and Vikings have been heading in opposite directions the past three weeks

After a thrilling slate of Sunday games, we've got a battle of NFC North rivals on our hands Monday evening. 

The Chicago Bears, current owners of the No. 7 seed in the NFC with their 5-4 record, welcome the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings to Soldier Field. Lest you think those records are indicative of team quality, though, consider that the Bears have lost three games in a row while the Vikings have won three straight, and the two teams have nearly identical point differentials on the season. 

In other words, this figures to be a closely-contested matchup. Without further ado, let's break things down. 

How to watch

Date: Monday, Nov. 16 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App

When the Vikings have the ball

The Bears remain one of the NFL's best defense. Nine games into their season, the Bears are allowing just 335 yards (ninth in the NFL) and 21.1 points (seventh) per game. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, with top-seven units against both the run (seventh) and pass (fourth). 

What's fascinating about the pass defense is the Bears have done it despite surprisingly generating pressure at a below-average rate (32.2 percent of opponent dropbacks, compared with a 35.1 percent league average, per Pro Football Focus and Tru Media), indicating that there is still untapped upside for the unit, considering the talent Chicago has up front. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has been among the most heavily-pressured passers in the league this season, seeing defenders in his face on 38.2 percent of his dropbacks. Cousins is just 38 of 68 for 545 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions under pressure this season, with a passer rating nearly 30 points worse than the one he's posted when throwing from a clean pocket. 

Cousins prefers to get rid of the ball quickly and on rhythm, spraying the ball to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in stride once he hits the top of his drop. Any time he has to hold the ball for longer than a hitch or two, there's potential for something to go wrong. That makes the Bears a particularly tough matchup for Cousins, being that they have allowed opposing passers to complete just 71 of 146 passes for 945 yards, no touchdowns, and three picks on throws at least 2.5 seconds after the snap. 

Minnesota should be able to get the matchups it wants inside or out because the Bears mostly play sides with cornerbacks Kyle Fuller (89 percent on the left) and Jaylon Johnson (95 percent on the right) while leaving Buster Skrine in the slot (95 percent). They'll likely design quick-hitting routes at the expense of trying to hit too many big plays, but counting on Cousins to dink and dunk his way down the field and avoid turnovers against such a swarming defense could also play into Chicago's hands. 

That's why the Vikings figure to treat the Bears to a healthy dose of Dalvin Cook, who has been absolutely on fire the past couple of weeks. In two games since returning from injury and the bye, Cook has hit up the Packers for 226 total yards and four touchdowns on 32 touches, and demolished the Lions for 252 total yards and two scores on just 24 touches. In those two games alone he ripped off 11 carries of 10 yards or more, compared with only seven runs for zero or negative yards. 

The Bears, while generally an excellent run defense, have actually allowed 24 explosive runs so far this season, per PFF and Tru Media, so there's a chance of Cook popping a long one if he gets into the open field. Per Football Outsiders, Chicago ranks just 20th in second-level yards allowed per carry, and 18th in open-field yards allowed per carry. Those figures are far worse than their marks when it comes to stopping runs closer to the line of scrimmage: they've stopped the 12th-most opponent rush attempts at or behind the line, and they've allowed conversions in power situations (third or fourth down with two or fewer yards to go) at the ninth-lowest rate in the league. 

The only thing that would conceivably force the Vikings out of a Cook-focused game plan is if the Bears were to take a sizable early lead, but considering the quality of Chicago's offense, that seems somewhat unlikely -- even if most teams are able to rather easily move the ball against the Minnesota defense.  

When the Bears have the ball

Ever heard of the ol' unstoppable force against the immovable object? This ain't that. The Bears might better be described as a stoppable force, and the Vikings as a moveable object. 

The Bears average just 317.8 yards per game, 29th in the NFL. They score just 19.8 points per game, also 29th in the NFL. Per Football Outsiders, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency, with the 31st-ranked rushing attack and 25th-ranked passing game. The Vikings, meanwhile, allow a ton of yards -- 412.9, to be exact, 29th in the NFL. They allow 29.3 points per game, 25th in the league. They rank just around average in defensive efficiency (15th, per Football Outsiders), but they do not sport a top-10 rank against against either the run or the pass. 

Chicago's pass offense has looked slightly improved the past few weeks, but the run game is essentially nonexistent at this point. It would be far too kind to say David Montgomery has been running in mud this season. Montgomery, though, is set to miss this game with a concussion. Instead, it'll be some combination of Ryan Nall, Cordarrelle Patterson, and potentially Lamar Miller, who has been on Chicago's practice squad and has not played since 2018. (Miller tore his ACL prior to last season.) 

Nall showed some explosiveness on his four carries last week against Tennessee, but he also has just six carries in his career so far. Patterson is a converted wide receiver who has shown deftness in short yardage situations but not the kind of consistency or breakaway ability necessary to be a full-time back. And again, Miller has not played in quite some time. Chicago's offensive line has yet to display the ability to consistently move defensive linemen backward in the run game, so it's possible that even this paper-soft Minnesota defensive front could hold up in this spot. 

The Bears having to lean on their passing attack is not a good situation for them to be in, but perhaps Matt Nagy ceding play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will inject some more verve into the aerial attack. If well-protected, Foles may actually have a chance to do some damage against Minnesota, which has one of the league's more burnable secondaries. 

The Vikings are incredibly young on the perimeter, even with Mike Hughes, Holton Hill, and Cameron Dantzler all out. Those absences will leave Allen Robinson, promising rookie Darnell Mooney, and slot man Anthony Miller to do battle with the likes of Jeff Gladney, Kris Boyd, and Chris Jones. Those are matchups the Bears should be able to consistently win. 

Whether or not those wins turn into anything noteworthy will depend on which version of Foles shows up, which in turn will depend on which version of the Bears' offensive line shows up. Foles is as sensitive to pressure as any passer in the league, and can only be counted on to succeed when he has a clean pocket. If the Bears afford him time, he can keep them in this game. If they don't, it could be a long night. 

Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 20