Can't buy a win these days. Lost an all-time bad beat last week with whatever the hell happened at the end of the Cardinals-49ers game. All the bad bounces and all the luck going in the opposite direction. Got to at least get back over .500 for the year this week. I'm keeping it relatively simple. 16-17-1 sucks.

Packers (+3) at 49ers

The 49ers are very beat up, including along the defensive line, which is the strength of the team. I'm not sold on them beating good teams in big spots and I'm not sold, in general, on home-field advantage this season. Green Bay can pound it on the ground and run play action and I could see this game getting lopsided, frankly. Too many beat up 49ers at the point of attack and too few fully healthy weapons for them.

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Ravens (-3.5) at Rams

The Ravens are good for about 40 points a week. The Rams don't have the speed on defense to deal with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens secondary will swarm this depleted Rams passing game. Jared Goff is running into a buzzsaw here, and I guarantee you Marcus Peters has a big game. Baltimore isn't letting up on anyone these days in general and is blowing teams out by halftime. I see more of the same here.

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