The Lightning look to claim a spot in the 2018 Stanley Cup Final on Monday when they face the Capitals in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals at 8 p.m. ET. The host Caps are at -130, meaning you would need to risk $130 to win $100. The Lightning are at +110, so you would risk $100 to win $110. The over-under, or total number of goals Vegas thinks will be scored, is six.

Tampa Bay lost the opening two games of the series at home, but rebounded to take both games at Washington and emerged victorious 3-2 on Saturday at home.

Before you make your pick, you need to see what SportsLine expert David Kelly has to say. A Toronto-born hockey analyst with multiple advanced degrees, Kelly has been one of the nation's premier hockey handicappers, earning more than $5,500 for $100 bettors this season.

He knows the ins and outs of these two teams, going 22-10 on Washington games and 24-15 on Tampa Bay contests.

Now, using his proprietary data models and unmatched knowledge of the game, Kelly has examined this East finals showdown from every angle and released a strong money line pick. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Kelly knows the Lightning have improved on both ends of the ice in their three consecutive victories. They were handled 4-2 and 6-2 in the opening two games, but won Games 3 and 4 by 4-2 scores before Saturday's squeaker.

Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed just six goals with a 94.3 percent save percentage the past three games. Meanwhile, Tampa's offense has overwhelmed Washington with speed and transition.

This isn't the first time the Caps have faced adversity this season. They opened the season just 11-10-1 before winning 16 of their next 21 games. They lost their first two games at home to the Blue Jackets in the opening round of the 2018 NHL playoffs before rolling to four straight victories. And they finally beat the Penguins in the in the Eastern semifinals, clinching it in Game 6 without several key players.

And they have Alex Ovechkin.

So will the Lightning secure their spot in the Stanley Cup Final, or can the Capitals sent the series back to Tampa for Game 7? Kelly's pick and complete analysis are locked in. Visit SportsLine now to get David Kelly's exclusive pick, all from an incomparable NHL expert who's 22-10 on picks involving the Capitals.