The Toronto Maple Leafs look to turn around their recent fortunes when they take on the host Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs (31-21-8), who are third in the Atlantic Division, have lost two of three and are 4-5 in February, while the Penguins (36-15-6), who are second in the Metropolitan Division, have won two straight and three of four. 

The puck will drop at 7 p.m. ET from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Toronto leads the all-time series 91-90-17. Pittsburgh is the -138 favorite on the money line in the latest Maple Leafs vs. Penguins odds, while the over-under for total goals scored is 6.5. Before making any Penguins vs. Maple Leafs picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, taking into account factors like current form, individual matchups, injuries and short- and long-term trends when making NHL picks. The model seeks the best values on the money line, puck line and total.

Now, the model has set its sights on Penguins vs. Maple Leafs. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL lines and trends for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins:

  • Maple Leafs vs. Penguins spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
  • Maple Leafs vs. Penguins over-under: 6.5 goals
  • Maple Leafs vs. Penguins money line: Toronto +119, Pittsburgh -138
  • TOR: Maple Leafs are first in the NHL in penalty minutes at 40
  • PIT: Penguins are 9-8-1 against the Atlantic Division this season

Why the Penguins have value

Pittsburgh is used to success and has a winning record in 13 straight seasons, having made the playoffs in each of those, and in 24 of the past 28 years. The Penguins have won five Stanley Cup championships since 1991, the most recent in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017. In parts of five seasons under coach Mike Sullivan, the Penguins are 209-107-40.

Center Evgeni Malkin has been red hot of late and has posted 19 points over the past 15 games, including seven goals and 12 assists, including a pair of three-point performances in wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia. He scored two goals against the Wild on Jan. 14, while assisting on a pair of goals against the Flyers on Jan. 31.

Why the Maple Leafs have value

Even so, there's no guarantee Pittsburgh is the best value on the Maple Leafs vs. Penguins money line. Toronto has had no trouble putting the puck in the net and leads the league in goals scored at 210. The Maple Leafs, who are looking to make their fourth straight playoff appearance, have had three straight winning seasons and are looking for their sixth winning season in eight years.

Since Sheldon Keefe took over for coach Mike Babcock earlier this season, Toronto is 21-10-4. Center Auston Matthews is a big reason for the Maple Leafs' success, leading the team with 71 points, including 42 goals. Matthews has registered 13 points over the past 10 games, including four in a 5-4 victory over Anaheim on Feb. 7.

How to make Penguins vs. Maple Leafs picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the simulation suggests Matthews and Malkin will have a lesser chance of scoring for their respective sides, and it also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Maple Leafs vs. Penguins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.