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Borussia Dortmund has a healthy lead and home-field advantage when it hosts Sevilla on Tuesday with a spot in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on the line. Dortmund is up 3-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16 matchup, and the three away goals make it an uphill climb for Sevilla, which has lost three straight in La Liga. The Spanish side will try to exploit the suspect defense of Dortmund, which is sixth in the Bundesliga after a 4-2 loss to European champion Bayern Munich. 

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m ET at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany. Dortmund is a 0.5-goal and +111 money-line favorite in the latest Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you make any Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.

Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up more than $8,900.

Now, the model has set its sights on Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several odds and trends for Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund:

  • Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund spread: Dortmund -0.5
  • Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund money line: Sevilla +225, Dortmund +111, Draw +270
  • SEV: F Luuk de Jong has scored three goals in his last five matches.
  • BVB: F Erling Haaland has scored 47 goals in his 44 games with the team.

Why you should back Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund will want to take its frustration out on another team after letting a 2-0 lead against Bayern slip away on Saturday. Striker Erling Haaland scored twice in the loss, and he also tallied two goals in the first leg of this matchup. He is the Champions League's top scorer with eight despite missing two matches, and he has 18 goals and two assists in 13 career UCL games. 

Dortmund has scored 15 goals and has a plus-8 goal differential in seven UCL games, while Sevilla has scored 11 and is even on goal differential. Dortmund is 4-0-2 in its last six at home, outscoring opponents 14-6 during that span, and should find opportunities as Sevilla presses forward. Marco Reus and Thorgan Hazard, who assisted on a Haaland goal in the first meeting, should step up in place of injured star midfielder Jadon Sancho.

Why you should back Sevilla 

The Spanish side is well rested after a 2-1 loss to struggling Elche on Saturday in La Liga, as all of the key players sat out. It is clearly focused on this task, and the refreshed players face a Dortmund side that comes off a draining match with Bayern, both physically and emotionally. Sevilla should be the more energized side, and it showed in the first leg it can score on Dortmund's defense.        

The Dortmund back line is its weakness, and Sevilla will throw everything it has at it. Sevilla is averaging almost 16 shots per game and is tied for second in the Champions League in shots on goal with 42. Striker Youssef En-Nesyri is one of the players who should be re-energized, and he has 13 goals to tie for fourth in La Liga. He also has four in the Champions League, one of six Sevilla players with at least one.     

How to make Champions League picks for Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla

The model is leaning over on the total, and it has also locked in a strong money line pick for Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own Champions League picks.

So who wins Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up more than $8,900, and find out.