Corner Picks: Best bets for West Ham vs. Chelsea top four Premier League battle and more

We're on the heater of a lifetime

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 23, 2021 at 1:54 pm ET • 3 min read

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When it comes to gambling, we often spend too much time focusing on the losses and not nearly enough time enjoying the good times. I'm changing that this week. It's somewhat crazy to think that a few months ago, I was down four units on the season in Corner Picks, and now, as the end of the season approaches, we're up 7.72 units following a 3-1 week last week.

That's nearly a 12-unit turnaround. The way I figure, one of two things is happening right now. I've either figured out soccer better than anybody else in the world, and I should be tasked with saving the sport, or I'm just on a heater the likes of which I'll never see again.

I'm hoping it's the former. I suspect it's the latter. Whatever it is, I'm just hoping we don't crater to finish the season.

1. West Ham vs. Chelsea, Sat. 12:30 p.m, NBC

Chelsea fans have to be facing a crisis of faith right now, don't they? No, I'm not talking about their revolt following the attempted formation of the Super League; I'm talking about the club's results under Thomas Tuchel. On the one hand, it's hard to argue that the team hasn't improved remarkably since dumping Frank Lampard for Tuchel. They're in the Champions League semis, and currently in position to qualify for next year's Champions League. These are great developments.

But the team is just so damn boring to watch. Tuchel has been in charge for 20 matches, and 10 of them have featured one goal or fewer (there have been four scoreless draws). Chelsea have dominated the ball and given opponents few opportunities to score, which is great for getting results, but it makes matches seem like four-hour affairs. It also makes it somewhat easy to figure out what to do this week. If we're going to be bored, let's at least make money in the process. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-125)

2. Wolverhampton vs. Burnley, Sun. 7 a.m, NBCSN

The early-season injury to Raúl Jiménez threw Wolves for a loop, as he was the cog that so much of the team's goal-scoring flowed through after losing Diogo Jota to Liverpool. So much so that, despite only playing nine full matches before going down, Jiménez is still tied for second on the team with four goals in the Premier League. The good news for Wolves is that while they won't finish the season where they hoped to because of it, they've found a groove of late. They've won two matches in a row, and even before the wins came, there were encouraging signs found in losses to Liverpool and West Ham before them.

Now Wolves face a Burnley squad that's limping to the finish line, hoping not to find itself dragged into a relegation battle. Burnley have lost three straight and been horrible away from home all season. While they have an expected goal differential (xGD) of -0.22 per match at home, it's nearly four times worse at -0.88 on the road. Take the Wolves team rounding into form. The Pick: Wolverhampton (+106)

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3. Fiorentina vs. Juventus, Sun. 9 a.m, ESPN+

Considering Fiorentina beat Juventus 3-0 earlier this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bianconeri come out for revenge, but there's not much value on Juve on the money line. Instead, let's try to take advantage of that desire for vengeance and mix it with a bit of Fiorentina's terrible defending.

While I don't expect Fiorentina to be relegated, the fact it's still possible late in the season is due to the fact they've allowed 53 goals in 32 league matches. All the Serie A clubs that have allowed more are in danger of going down. There are too many defensive lapses to trust them, but Fiorentina's wunderkind Dusan Vlahovic has been fantastic. He's scored 16 league goals, ranking seventh in the league. I wouldn't be shocked to see him find the back of the net again this weekend. Either way, Serie A has been the highest-scoring league of the big five European leagues this season (3.04 goals per match), and I'm expecting this match to follow that trend. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-150)