Corner Picks: Real Madrid to go to Chelsea and win; Napoli vs. AC Milan to feature plenty of goals

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling with UCL quarterfinal second legs

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 17, 2023 at 3:53 pm ET • 4 min read

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The second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals resume this week, and unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot of intrigue going into these matches. All four of the first legs saw one team getting shutout by the other, and only AC Milan's 1-0 win over Napoli came by a margin of one goal.

Manchester City have a 3-0 lead on Bayern Munich, while Real Madrid and Inter are up 2-0 on Chelsea and Benfica. Barring some incredible comebacks, there's a very high likelihood that City, Madrid and Inter are all moving on.

But what are the best bets to make? All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

Date: Tuesday, April 18 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS and Paramount+ | Tactical cam: CBS Sports Golazo Network

Oh man, so I guess Frank Lampard isn't going to fix it, huh? As I wrote last week, when given a chance to bet on the team managed by Carlo Ancelotti against a team managed by Frank Lampard, I will take that bet every time. This week is no different, even if Real Madrid have already taken a 2-0 lead and won't feel the need to be as aggressive.

However, with Chelsea being so desperate, that will present Real Madrid -- the superior team -- with plenty of opportunities to exploit space and score goals, and I fully expect Madrid will do just that. As for Chelsea, we're talking about a team that have scored one goal in its last five matches. Maybe they are due, or maybe they are just really bad at scoring goals. The Pick: Real Madrid (+140)

Napoli vs. AC Milan

Date: Tuesday, April 18 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

So last week, I anticipated that Victor Osimhen would return for the first leg. Not only was I incorrect, but Napoli were without his backup Giovanni Simeone as well. It turns out that if you remove Napoli's top two strikers, they struggle to score. However, would you believe that Napoli still won the xG battle 1.3-1.1? It did, and my biggest takeaway from last week's first leg was that Milan might seriously regret not doing more damage against such a wounded team. After all, Napoli spent a good portion of the second half down to 10 men after Frank Zambo Anguissa picked up a red card.

Which is where this leg gets tricky. Osimhen played over the weekend and is expected to start in this match. That's great news for Napoli. However, Napoli will not only be without Anguissa (a big part of its midfield) due to the red card, but center-back Kim Min-Jae will also miss the match after picking up another yellow in the first leg. So Napoli's attack will be much more potent with Osimhen, but their defending will be considerably weaker. Maybe that over bet that didn't win last week will come through this time. The Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)

Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City

Date: Wednesday, April 19 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS and Paramount+ | Tactical cam: CBS Sports Golazo Network

Speaking of overs, Manchester City may hold a 3-0 lead already, but Pep Guardiola has no chill. The man does not believe in sitting back and protecting leads. He believes that he's doing a disservice to the sport to do anything but play beautiful football and try to score as many goals as humanly possible. And scoring goals is quite possible against a Bayern side that have been terrible defensively all season long. For example, look at the three goals City put on them with ease in the first leg.

I won't be surprised if City do it again because I'm not sure what Bayern can do to stop it. At the same time, I don't know that City will shut Bayern out at the Allianz Arena. So I expect another high-scoring affair here, even if there isn't much drama regarding which team will move on in the competition. I don't hate the over 3.5 if you want to take the juicier play, but I feel the over 2.5 is smarter. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-175)

Inter Milan vs. Benfica

Date: Wednesday, April 19 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Benfica picked a bad time to fall into its first slump of the season. From Aug. 2 to April 2 -- an eight-month stretch -- Benfica played 38 matches across all competitions, and they ost only one of them. In fact, they won 33 of the other 37. The Portuguese club enter this match having lost three straight, including the first leg at home 2-0. Now, losing to Porto and Inter can be excused, as they're two excellent teams.

Losing 1-0 to Chaves, the 10th-place team in Portugal, over the weekend? Not a great sign. Not going to inspire a lot of confidence. Benfica are struggling to put the ball in the net right now, and Inter have been a monster defensively at home all season. Sitting on a two-goal lead, I don't expect Inter to get too adventurous here. I anticipate a stodgy, dull affair. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-120)