MLS Cup playoffs scenarios, odds: What teams need to qualify for postseason on Decision Day

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The final day of the MLS regular season promises to be an entertaining one as a handful of teams make one final push for the playoffs. Across both conferences, 10 teams are competing for five postseason berths on Saturday. The race is particularly tight in the east with only two spots on the line and five teams -- CF Montreal, the New York Red Bulls, the Chicago Fire, Charlotte FC, and New York City FC -- with eyes on them. For Charlotte, finishing ninth or higher would mark their first-ever trip to the MLS Cup playoffs, while the Red Bulls aim to extend the league's longest active postseason streak to 14.

There's only a little more room for error in the west. Five sides -- the Portland Timbers, FC Dallas, the San Jose Earthquakes, Sporting Kansas City, and Minnesota United -- are all eligible to land in the conference's last three spots.

A handful of other teams, meanwhile, can still clinch a top-four finish in their conference and priority to host playoff games as a result.

For the eighth and ninth-place teams in each conference, a winner-takes-all wild card game awaits before they earn a spot in the first round. The action begins on Oct. 25 and culminates with MLS Cup final on Dec. 9.

Here's what teams need in order to reach the postseason.

Eastern Conference playoff scenarios

CF Montreal (41 points, 12-16-5)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

CF Montréal WIN at Columbus Crew OR
Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC AND Charlotte FC LOSS/DRAW vs. Inter Miami CF OR
Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC AND New York Red Bulls LOSS/DRAW at Nashville SC OR
Charlotte FC LOSS/DRAW vs. Inter Miami CF AND New York Red Bulls LOSS/DRAW at Nashville SC

New York Red Bulls (40 points, 10-13-10)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

New York Red Bulls WIN at Nashville SC AND CF Montréal LOSS/DRAW at Columbus Crew OR
New York Red Bulls WIN at Nashville SC AND Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC OR
New York Red Bulls WIN at Nashville SC AND New York Red Bulls advantage in tiebreakers over Chicago Fire FC OR
New York Red Bulls DRAW at Nashville SC AND Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC AND Charlotte FC LOSS/DRAW vs. Inter Miami CF

Chicago Fire (40 points, 10-13-10)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

Chicago Fire FC WIN at NYCFC AND CF Montréal LOSS/DRAW at Columbus Crew OR
Chicago Fire FC WIN at NYCFC AND New York Red Bulls LOSS/DRAW at Nashville SC OR
Chicago Fire FC WIN at NYCFC AND Chicago Fire FC advantage in tiebreakers over New York Red Bulls OR
Chicago Fire FC DRAW at NYCFC AND New York Red Bulls LOSS at Columbus Crew AND Charlotte FC LOSS/DRAW vs. Inter Miami CF

Charlotte FC (40 points, 9-11-13)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

Charlotte FC WIN vs. Inter Miami CF AND CF Montréal LOSS/DRAW at Columbus Crew AND Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC OR
Charlotte FC WIN vs. Inter Miami CF AND CF Montréal LOSS/DRAW at Columbus Crew AND New York Red Bulls LOSS/DRAW at Nashville SC OR
Charlotte FC WIN vs. Inter Miami CF AND Chicago Fire FC LOSS/DRAW at NYCFC ANDNew York Red Bulls LOSS/DRAW at Nashville SC

New York City FC (38 points, 8-11-14)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

NYCFC WIN vs. Chicago Fire FC AND New York Red Bulls LOSS at Nashville SC AND Charlotte FC LOSS/DRAW vs. Inter Miami CF

Philadelphia Union (55 points, 15-8-10)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Philadelphia Union WIN/DRAW at New England Revolution OR
Columbus Crew LOSS vs. CF Montréal OR
Philadelphia Union LOSS BY TWO OR FEWER GOALS at New England Revolution

Columbus Crew (54 points, 15-9-9)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Columbus Crew WIN/DRAW vs. CF Montréal OR
New England Revolution LOSS/DRAW vs. Philadelphia Union

New England Revolution (52 points, 14-9-10)

Can clinch top four seed with:

New England Revolution WIN vs. Philadelphia Union AND Columbus Crew LOSS vs. CF Montréal OR
New England Revolution WIN BY THREE OR MORE GOALS vs. Philadelphia Union OR
New England Revolution WIN vs. Philadelphia Union AND Columbus Crew DRAW vs. CF Montréal AND New England Revolution advantage in tiebreakers over Columbus Crew

Western conference playoff scenarios

Portland Timbers (43 points, 11-12-10)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

Portland Timbers WIN vs. Houston Dynamo FC OR
Portland Timbers DRAW vs. Houston Dynamo FC AND San Jose Earthquakes DRAW vs. Austin FC OR
Portland Timbers DRAW vs. Houston Dynamo FC AND FC Dallas DRAW at LA Galaxy OR
San Jose Earthquakes LOSS vs. Austin FC OR
FC Dallas LOSS at LA Galaxy OR
Sporting Kansas City DRAW vs. Minnesota United FC

FC Dallas (43 points, 10-10-13)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

FC Dallas WIN at LA Galaxy OR
FC Dallas DRAW at LA Galaxy AND Portland Timbers LOSS vs. Houston Dynamo FC OR
FC Dallas DRAW at LA Galaxy AND San Jose Earthquakes LOSS/DRAW vs. Austin FC OR
San Jose Earthquakes LOSS vs. Austin FC AND FC Dallas advantage in tiebreakers over San Jose Earthquakes OR
Sporting Kansas City DRAW vs. Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes (43 points, 10-10-13)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

San Jose Earthquakes WIN vs. Austin FC OR
San Jose Earthquakes DRAW vs. Austin FC AND Portland Timbers LOSS vs. Houston Dynamo FC OR
San Jose Earthquakes DRAW vs. Austin FC AND FC Dallas LOSS at LA Galaxy OR
FC Dallas LOSS at LA Galaxy AND San Jose Earthquakes advantage in tiebreakers over FC Dallas OR
Sporting Kansas City DRAW vs. Minnesota United FC

Sporting Kansas City (41 points, 11-14-8)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

Sporting Kansas City WIN vs. Minnesota United FC AND Portland Timbers LOSS/DRAW vs. Houston Dynamo FC OR
Sporting Kansas City WIN vs. Minnesota United FC AND San Jose Earthquakes LOSS/DRAW vs. Austin FC OR
Sporting Kansas City WIN vs. Minnesota United FC AND FC Dallas LOSS/DRAW at LA Galaxy

Minnesota United (41 points, 10-12-11)

Can clinch a playoff berth with:

Minnesota United FC WIN at Sporting Kansas City AND Portland Timbers LOSS/DRAW vs. Houston Dynamo FC OR
Minnesota United FC WIN at Sporting Kansas City AND San Jose Earthquakes LOSS/DRAW vs. Austin FC OR
Minnesota United FC WIN at Sporting Kansas City AND FC Dallas LOSS/DRAW at LA Galaxy

Seattle Sounders (50 points, 13-9-11)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Seattle Sounders FC WIN/DRAW at St. Louis CITY SC OR
Houston Dynamo FC LOSS/DRAW at Portland Timbers AND Real Salt Lake LOSS/DRAW at Colorado Rapids OR
Houston Dynamo FC LOSS/DRAW at Portland Timbers AND Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC OR
Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC AND Real Salt Lake LOSS/DRAW at Colorado Rapids

Houston Dynamo (48 points, 13-11-9)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Houston Dynamo FC WIN at Portland Timbers OR
Houston Dynamo FC DRAW at Portland Timbers AND Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC AND Real Salt Lake LOSS/DRAW at Colorado Rapids OR
Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC AND Real Salt Lake LOSS at Colorado Rapids OR
Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC AND Real Salt Lake DRAW at Colorado Rapids AND Houston Dynamo FC advantage in tiebreakers over Real Salt Lake

Real Salt Lake (47 points, 13-12-8)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Real Salt Lake WIN at Colorado Rapids AND Seattle Sounders FC LOSS at St. Louis CITY SC OR
Real Salt Lake WIN at Colorado Rapids AND Houston Dynamo FC LOSS/DRAW at Portland Timbers OR
Real Salt Lake DRAW at Colorado Rapids AND Houston Dynamo FC LOSS at Portland Timbers AND Vancouver Whitecaps FC LOSS/DRAW vs. LAFC AND Real Salt Lake advantage in tiebreakers over Houston Dynamo FC

Vancouver Whitecaps (47 points, 12-10-11)

Can clinch top four seed with:

Vancouver Whitecaps FC WIN vs. LAFC AND Seattle Sounders FC LOSS at St. Louis CITY SC AND Houston Dynamo FC LOSS/DRAW at Portland Timbers OR
Vancouver Whitecaps FC WIN vs. LAFC AND Seattle Sounders FC LOSS at St. Louis CITY SC AND Real Salt Lake LOSS/DRAW at Colorado Rapids OR
Vancouver Whitecaps FC WIN vs. LAFC AND Houston Dynamo FC LOSS/DRAW at Portland Timbers AND Real Salt Lake LOSS/DRAW at Colorado Rapids