UEFA Champions League draw predictions, most likely groups of death: Arsenal, Barcelona could renew rivalry

PSG, Real Madrid and AC Milan should all fear tough draws, while some newcomers could shine

The group stage draw for the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League is this Thursday and with it will come the annual mouthwatering prospect of a potential "group of death" scenario. On top of that, there are always those underrated groups which throw together some of Europe's top club sides. This year's draw promises to be no different with a mix of the usual big name suspects and a mix of refreshing newcomers as well as some potential dark horses. Defending champions Manchester City will be out to avoid a tough draw straight out of the blocks but a number of other top sides including Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Christian Pulisic's AC Milan should be wary of some potentially tricky draws.

We take a look at some of the possible scenarios we could see unfold at the Grimaldi Forum in Monaco later this week.

Pots so far

• Pot 1: Manchester City, Sevilla, Barcelona, Napoli, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica and Feyenoord.
• Pot 2: Real Madrid, Manchester United, Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, Porto and Arsenal.
• Pot 3: Shakhtar Donetsk, Red Bull Salzburg, AC Milan, Lazio and Red Star Belgrade.
• Pot 4: Newcastle United, Union Berlin and Lens.
• Currently unseeded sides: Real Sociedad and Celtic.

*Note that this was written before the final round of qualifying games.

Possible groups of death

There is always at least one group which makes everybody wince -- not least those associated with the drawn clubs -- and this year the chances are strong of a possible all-timer. With Real and Arsenal in the second pot, Milan in the third and some tricky customers in the fourth pot as well, there might well be few -- if any -- of the supposed "easy draws" that some bigger clubs are often accused of landing. With some of these clubs in mind, as well as City, PSG, Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the top seeds, we have concocted some dastardly potential group scenarios.

Possibility 1: Man City, Real Madrid, Milan and Lens or Union Berlin.

If this comes to pass, poor Lens who are returning to the Champions League for the first time since 2002-03. The cult French club would bring plenty of color and fight to a scenario like this one, but City, Real and Milan is about as tough as it could get for Franck Haise's men. Union Berlin, who do not boast the same continental pedigree as Ligue 1 runners-up Lens, could also land the same draw which would represent a baptism of fire for the popular Bundesliga outfit.

Possibility 2: Barcelona, Arsenal, Milan and Lens or Union Berlin.

Another potentially unenviable mission for either Lens or Union Berlin who could see themselves drawn against Barcelona, Arsenal and Milan. Again, it would be another group dripping with pedigree with some of Europe's most established names assembled. However, there is arguably a case to be made that this sort of combination might actually enable the team from the fourth pot to at least hope to be competitive while the first possibility pretty much paints them as potential cannon fodder.

Possibility 3: PSG, Real, Milan and Newcastle or Union Berlin.

The stakes will be high when PSG are drawn into their group and then run the gauntlet to see who they will be up against. In what could prove to be a cruel twist of fate, there is a scenario which could see the French champions land on Real, Milan and Newcastle which could create two phenomenal pieces of narrative while posing a major challenge. The Spanish giants are longtime suitors for Kylian Mbappe who is currently into the final 12 months of his contract and has only just been reintegrated into the senior setup in Paris. Also, Qatar-owned PSG could find themselves up against… Saudi-backed Newcastle. This again features Milan who have by far the greatest prestige and pedigree from the third pot.

Possibility 4: Bayern, Real, Milan and Newcastle or Lens.

Another intriguing possibility could feature German champions Bayern Munich pairing with familiar foes Real and Milan before Newcastle or Lens are thrown into the mix. The Magpies are particularly tricky to come up against given their strong showing in the Premier League and the incredible atmosphere generated at St James' Park on big European nights. Given Newcastle's Saudi-backing and Bayern's proud and traditional history which rails against state-owned clubs, such a pairing has the potential to be incendiary should it come to pass.

Draws we want to see

City, Bayern or PSG vs. Real: Right now, there seems to be no better time to land on Real with issues left, right and center for Carlo Ancelotti. Vinicius Junior has just been lost to injury for four to six weeks while Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao also suffered long-term injuries. Form on the field might be fine so far in La Liga, but a tough Champions League draw is not what Los Blancos want or need right now -- but they might well get it from one of City, Bayern or PSG. We have seen Les Parisiens vs. Real a few times in recent years, but the Mbappe story added another contentious chapter over the summer so why not give us another?

Barca, Bayern or Napoli vs. Manchester United or Arsenal: Barcelona vs. United was a UEFA Europa League fixture last season and has now been restored to the top table. Napoli are marked men after last campaign's heroics and Mikel Arteta has steered Arsenal back to the continental summit where they could be welcomed back by the likes of Bayern. Should any combination featuring these clubs happen, they will be among the draw highlights.

PSG vs. Newcastle: We have seen PSG and City do battle before which is not possible here given that both are top seeds while Newcastle against City is also not possible due to both being Premier League clubs. However, PSG vs. Newcastle and thus Qatar vs. Saudi Arabia is very much possible in this scenario, which could be the first instalment of a new soccer age rivalry.

Is this an underdog season?

Looking at the pots, there is a decent chance of quite a favorable route to the knockout phase despite there also being a strong probability of a "group of death." Sevilla, Benfica or Feyenoord from the first pot along with a Dortmund, Leipzig or Porto from the second could combine with a Shakhtar, Salzburg, Lazio or Red Star and finish with either Union or Lens. Adding extra intrigue is that should Dortmund, Leipzig or Union draw Shakhtar, they will play an additional "away" game in their home country of Germany due to the Ukrainian giants playing this term's European games in Hamburg.

Underrated draws

Despite going into detail about how Union and Lens could be lambs to the slaughter, do not rule either out from springing an upset or two. The Germans are off to a fast start in the Bundesliga and lead the pile after two rounds of games having looked decent at times in UEFA competitions last season. Lens also finished just one point behind PSG in Ligue 1 last term and boast one of the most impressive fanbases coming into this group stage. Union's story sets them apart from many UCL clubs while Lens are a cult favorite in France so do not sleep on either of these two who will undoubtedly be considered an "easy" draw by many.