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The Las Vegas Aces will look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead in the 2025 WNBA Finals when they visit the Phoenix Mercury Wednesday evening for Game 3. The Aces took the first two games at home and will now look to win on the road, while the Mercury try to hit back to avoid an insurmountable deficit. Las Vegas is seeking its third championship in the last four years while Phoenix is looking to win its first championship since 2014. Before you lock in any bets for Game 3 on Wednesday, be sure to check out what WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai are recommending.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Wetzel and Barzilai's best bets for Las Vegas vs. Phoenix on Wednesday:

Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 picks:

Mercury 1H -2.5

In the NBA, there is a longstanding trend of teams in a 7-game series who are down 2-0 returning home for Game 3 and coming out of the gates with a bang. While we don't have any data on this on the WNBA side – this is the first 7-game series in WNBA history – we do know teams trailing in a series play better on the women's side too.

Between that and the ugly 3-point shooting (under 20%) for the Mercury in Game 2, expect a bounce back from Phoenix in this one. The full game line has a bit of value as well, but let's bet on the NBA trend carrying over and ride the first half line at -2.5.

Monique Akoa Makani Over 6.5 points

The rookie has played 26+ minutes in each of the first two Finals games, as head coach Nate Tibbetts seems to trust her more than Sami Whitcomb against this Aces backcourt. In her two games, Akoa Makani has taken seven and 10 true shooting attempts while scoring 11 and nine points, respectively.

While she may be due for a bit of regression, I'd still project her for around 8 points at home, which gives us value on this prop. Her line is fairly set at 6.5, but the juice should be closer to -115 both ways, so take this prop at even odds or better.