Too early for 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Sleepers 1.0
We're still a few weeks from the NFL Draft, but that doesn't mean you can't start thinking ahead about your Fantasy team. Jamey Eisenberg has an early list of sleepers for you to consider.
Eisenberg: Breakouts 1.0 | Busts 1.0
Are you ready? Excited? The best time of the year is getting closer and teams are already starting their voluntary offseason workout programs, with the NFL Draft just a few weeks away.
Maybe it's time to print a Fantasy Football cheat sheet.
It might be too early for that, but it's never too soon to start preparing for the upcoming season. And we like to give you food for thought whenever possible.
With that in mind, here is an early look at sleepers for 2016. I'll give you at least three versions of this story before the start of the season, along with breakouts and busts, and our goal here is to get you thinking about players to target with mid- to late-round picks depending on the size of your league.
Nothing is set in stone with these guys and a lot can change with the draft. But here are a few players to target heading into the season.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins
There are many Fantasy owners who like the stability and continuity of a stud quarterback, which is fine. We all love Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers. Then there are owners who have no problem going the streaming route, and that's the world Tannehill lives in now. He's what we like to call a post-hype sleeper because a lot of people were high on him in 2015, but he was a disappointment with 4,210 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and 141 rushing yards and a touchdown. He actually declined by 28 Fantasy points from 2014, which is a bad sign to be going backward. This year, he should have the best receiving corps of his career with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. Miami's defense should be bad, forcing Tannehill into plenty of increased throwing chances. And the addition of coach Adam Gase should be the biggest benefit to Tannehill. In his past three jobs as the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator of the Broncos and offensive coordinator of the Bears, Gase has made Tim Tebow look competent, helped Peyton Manning play at an MVP level and turned around Jay Cutler's career. Hopefully he can do the same with Tannehill, who is worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues. He could easily emerge as a Top 12 quarterback this year.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears
Cutler wasn't a great Fantasy quarterback in 2015, finishing No. 21 in standard leagues. But he had one of the best seasons of his career under Gase, and we hope he can build off that performance with an upgraded receiving corps. He passed for 3,659 yards, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, including a completion percentage of 64.4 and a passer rating of 92.3. The passer rating was the best of his career, the interceptions were his lowest total for playing at least 15 games and the completion percentage was the second-best ever. What makes it impressive was Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett battled injuries during the season, and first-round pick Kevin White didn't play a down. We expect White to be healthy this year, Jeffery is back with the Bears and Chicago might have upgraded at tight end with Zach Miller over Bennett. The offensive line is also improved, and we hope that leads to good things for Cutler, especially if the Bears struggle to run the ball with Forte gone. Like Tannehill, Cutler isn't someone to target on Draft Day, but he could emerge as a viable option during the year. We hope the loss of Gase doesn't hurt Cutler, but there should be continuity in the play calling with quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains being promoted to offensive coordinator. Cutler should be a surprise Fantasy option in 2016.
Other sleeper quarterbacks to consider: Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco
Duke Johnson, RB, Browns
Heading into the NFL Draft, the Browns are again planning to use a tandem at running back led by Johnson and Isaiah Crowell. Both have the chance to play well this season under new coach Hue Jackson, but Johnson has the higher ceiling based on his ability to catch the ball in this offense. Cleveland isn't likely going to be sitting on many leads late in games, and if the Browns are playing from behind that will benefit Johnson, especially with a less-than-stellar receiving corps in Cleveland. He didn't have a great rookie season with 104 carries for 379 yards and 61 catches for 534 yards and two touchdowns, but the reception total was fourth among running backs behind Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick and Devonta Freeman. He obviously has more upside in PPR leagues than standard formats, but Johnson has the ability to be around 1,200 total yards and five touchdowns. That's great value for someone you can get in the back half of most drafts.
Alfred Morris, RB, Cowboys
Morris was an easy bust candidate last year, and he had the worst season of his career with 202 carries for 751 yards and a touchdown and 10 catches for 55 yards. His career has been in decline since a breakout rookie season with the Redskins in 2012, but he gets a fresh start with the Cowboys this year. He will open the season behind Darren McFadden, who we know isn't the poster boy for health even though he's played 16 games each of the past two years. It will likely take a McFadden injury for Morris to fully help Fantasy owners, and remember he hasn't been a factor as a receiver during his four-year career with only 47 catches. But the Dallas offensive line can make a standout running back like DeMarco Murray look elite and a washed up guy like McFadden look serviceable. The same could happen with Morris if given the chance at increased playing time. I would have no problem drafting McFadden with a mid-round pick and handcuffing him with Morris late.
Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers
Sims was overshadowed last season by Doug Martin, who challenged Adrian Peterson for the NFL rushing title before finishing second. And there was a chance this offseason that Sims could have become the starter, but Martin stayed in Tampa Bay and will remain No. 1 on the depth chart. That doesn't mean Sims is strictly a backup, and he played well in a secondary role in 2015 with 107 carries for 529 yards and 51 catches for 561 yards and four touchdowns. He was seventh in receptions for running backs, and Koetter said his role will remain the same. But he's an excellent running back to target with a mid-round pick in all leagues. Martin was great as a rookie before battling injuries the next two years, and he put together a great season in 2015 in a contract year. We hope he doesn't get complacent now that he got paid, but if that happens, Sims will be waiting for increased touches. He is one of the top handcuffs to target in all leagues.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons
Devonta Freeman was the No. 1 Fantasy running back last season in all leagues, but he wasn't even supposed to start for the Falcons after they drafted Coleman in the third round. After Coleman hurt his ribs in Week 2, Freeman took over and never looked back, leaving Coleman in a secondary role. He also suffered a concussion to close the season and lost three fumbles, and coach Dan Quinn said he has to prove his health and work on ball control to earn increased touches. But Quinn also said Freeman excels in a receiving role, and Coleman should get more carries. We still expect Freeman to be the starter and lead the Falcons in touches, but don't discount Coleman playing a prominent role. Atlanta improved its offensive line with the addition of center Alex Mack, and that should help Coleman perform better after he had just 87 carries for 392 yards and one touchdown and two catches for 14 yards. He should be handcuffed to Freeman in all leagues and is worth a flier with a late-round pick on his own as well.
Other sleeper running backs to consider: Rashad Jennings, Theo Riddick, Jerick McKinnon, Justin Forsett and Karlos Williams
Kevin White, WR, Bears
Jeremy Langford recently told me that White looks great and is ready to go for OTA workouts. All the reports on White's recovery from last year's leg injury have been positive, and we're excited to see him on the field this season. He missed his rookie year in 2015 after being selected No. 7 overall out of West Virginia, but he should make an immediate impact with the Bears as a starter opposite Jeffery. Chicago is desperate for help in the passing game since its No. 2 receiver last season was Marquess Wilson, who had 28 catches for 464 yards and one touchdown. White was a star in college with 109 catches, 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2014, and he could be a dynamic Fantasy option this season if he can stay healthy. That's the key, so don't reach for him on Draft Day, but instead let him fall in your lap as a No. 4 Fantasy receiver with a late-round pick.
Phillip Dorsett, WR, Colts
I didn't like the Colts using a first-round pick in the NFL Draft on Dorsett last season (offensive line or defensive help would have made more sense), and he was a non-factor as a rookie with just 18 catches for 225 yards and one touchdown on 39 targets. Part of the reason for his down year was Andrew Luck missing time with a kidney injury, but Indianapolis had three established receivers with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Andre Johnson and two tight ends with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. But this year, Dorsett should see a much bigger role with Johnson and Fleener gone. That's 162 targets that need to be replaced, which should help Hilton and Moncrief, but also benefit Dorsett. He might not be a weekly starter for your Fantasy team, but you always want talented receivers with elite quarterbacks in potentially explosive offenses. Dorsett checks off those boxes, and he's an excellent target with a late-round flier in all leagues.
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans
We'll see what the Titans do in the NFL Draft to address their receiving corps, but Green-Beckham could easily be their No. 1 option. He proved to be a raw product last year after not playing college football in 2014, and he had some good moments as a rookie with 32 catches for 549 yards and four touchdowns on 66 targets. Coach Mike Mularkey said this offseason will be important for Green-Beckham because he has never gone through this experience before, and we hope he comes back ready to be the top target for breakout candidate Marcus Mariota. In 2015, Green-Beckham had seven games with at least five targets, and he scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in four of them. Mariota will continue to lean on Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright, but Green-Beckham has the chance to be a standout receiver and starting-caliber Fantasy option. He's worth looking at with a mid- to late-round pick.
Marvin Jones, WR, Lions
Jones has said all the right things about trying to replace the departed Calvin Johnson, who retired this offseason. Jones knows he can't play at Johnson's level, and just play his game and hope it's productive and worth the contract he signed at five years, $40 million, with $17 million guaranteed. The Lions have to replace Johnson's production from last season, which was 88 catches for 1,214 yards and nine touchdowns on 150 targets. Golden Tate and Eric Ebron will see a boost in production, but Jones will definitely play a huge role. He was a solid third option in Cincinnati last year behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert with 65 catches for 816 yards and four touchdowns on 102 targets, and he scored 10 touchdowns in 2013. He could emerge as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver during the season, and he's worth drafting with a late-round pick in all leagues. We hope Jones and Matthew Stafford develop a quality rapport right away, and that Stafford will lean on him as a go-to option.
Other sleeper receivers to consider: Breshad Perriman, Markus Wheaton, Devin Funchess, Willie Snead and Jeff Janis
Eric Ebron, TE, Lions
There's a cliché that says it takes a village to raise a child. For the Lions, it will take a village to replace Johnson in the passing game. Ebron was the No. 3 option last season behind Johnson and Tate, and he had his share of positive moments but also showed he needs to do more to help Fantasy owners. He got off to a hot start with two touchdowns in his first two games, but he didn't score again until Week 7 and had just three games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. For the season, Ebron had 47 catches for 537 yards and five touchdowns on 69 targets. Now, he did have at least five targets in each of his final four games, and he should be more involved with Johnson gone, even with the addition of Jones. Stafford should fully trust Ebron by now, and he has the chance to be a Top 10 Fantasy tight end this season that you can draft with a late-round pick.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers
Seferian-Jenkins looked like he was headed toward a big season in 2015 when he had five catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. It was all downhill from there, however, as he battled a shoulder injury and was out from Week 3 until Week 13. He did score two touchdowns in his final three games, and hopefully he can stay healthy and prove his worth for a full season. Jameis Winston has a good history with tight ends going back to Florida State, and eight of his 22 touchdowns in 2015 went to the position. Seferian-Jenkins could easily finish as a top-five Fantasy tight end this year if he plays 16 games, but he's struggled with ankle and shoulder injuries the past two seasons. We'll see how Seferian-Jenkins does this year with his health and production, but there's a lot of upside to acquire with a late-round pick. He could end up as the biggest difference maker at tight end this year if he plays 16 games.
Other sleeper tight ends to consider: Clive Walford, Dwayne Allen and Zach Miller



























