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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 15. The Bucs (7-6) are fighting with Carolina (7-6) at the top of the NFC South standings, while the Falcons (4-9) are just looking for answers. It will be a contrast at running back, where explosive Falcons star Bijan Robinson will be counted on to carry the offense but faces a pretty stout Bucs run defense. Meanwhile, gritty Bucky Irving will be fighting for yards behind a banged-up Tampa Bay offensive line but could see some openings against an Atlanta defense that can be exploited.

Robinson and Irving should both be focal points in the Thursday Night Football matchup and will be popular options for NFL player props. So which running back should you back when it comes to rushing yards and attempts props? The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has issued its top picks for both of these props and shared which one you should target. All odds and lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Head to SportsLine for a full game forecast for Buccaneers vs. Falcons and more NFL player prop recommendations.

Rushing yards props

  • Bijan Robinson: 73.5 (Over -114, Under -114)
  • Bucky Irving: 62.5 (Over -114, Under -114)

Top pick: Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 rushing yards (4 stars)

Robinson has been a bright spot for the Falcons, rushing for 1,082 yards (5.0 per carry) and five touchdowns. Robinson has gone Over his rushing yards prop six times this season and is averaging 83.2 rushing yards per game. The Bucs' defense remains pretty solid against the run, allowing 100.6 yards per game (eighth), but Robinson averaged five yards per carry in two meetings last season. He had a season-low 24 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 1, but he had 100 receiving yards, including a 50-yard TD, and has been taking more handoffs in recent weeks. The SportsLine model pegs Robinson for 91.8 yards.

Rushing attempts props

  • Bijan Robinson: 16.5 (Over -112, Under -118)
  • Bucky Irving: 16.5 (Over -108, Under -122)

Top pick: Bijan Robinson Over 16.5 carries (4 stars)

Robinson had 20 carries for 86 yards in the loss to Seattle last week as Kirk Cousins threw for just 162 yards. The third-year standout has at least 20 carries in three of the past four games. He also has 56 receptions for 602 yards and two more scores, so he clearly is the main threat on offense. The Bucs have the sixth-worst passing defense in the league, but Atlanta's best chance to win is to feed Robinson, and that's what the model expects. The Sportsline Projection Model predicts 19.6 carries.