MLB Home Run Best Bets and Picks: July 31

The Inside the Lines team has been dishing out nightly home run bets all season long -- up over 40 units on the year. For more free daily picks across all sports, visit the Inside the Lines blog.

MLB Best Bets 7/31

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Junior Caminero (TB) +500, BetMGM

Caminero is worth a shot at +500 on a short slate day. He's been much better against right-handed pitchers this season, with 21 of his 27 home runs coming against them. While Marcus Stroman has been solid in right-on-right matchups, he's allowing an .878 OPS at Yankee Stadium this season. Caminero hasn't faced Stroman yet, but this version of Stroman is very hittable. We set Caminero's line at +330 to homer.

Brandon Lowe (TB) +450, BetMGM

Unlike Caminero, Lowe has seen Stroman before—he's 4-for-16 with a home run in his career against him. Stroman is allowing left-handed hitters to post a .298 average and .925 OPS this season. Lowe just returned from the IL but looked sharp with two hits yesterday. He's hit 16 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitchers and owns a .297 average with an .881 OPS against them. We set Lowe's line at +380 to homer.

Corey Seager (TEX) +400 (BetMGM)

Seager is hitless in 13 career at-bats against George Kirby, which is rare for him, but he's only struck out twice in those ABs. He's posted 90+ mph exit velocities in 3 of his last 4 at-bats against Kirby, so we're leaning into the "he's due" narrative. Kirby has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season—7 of the 9 home runs he's allowed have come from the left side, and he's giving up a .789 OPS to lefties compared to .566 to righties. We set Seager's line at +366 to homer.

MLB HR, Stolen Base, Strikeouts Prop Cheat Sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Junior Caminero is our #2 projected HR hitter and we'd price him at +291 which is why getting +500 at BetMGM is such a good value. Use the same method for Stolen Bases. For the Starting Pitcher's strikeouts compare our line to the betting line. If we have 5.4 and the line is 5.5 it could be good value if the under is +100 or more. But if it's -120 then not so much.

RANK	HR	SB	K
7/31	PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE	PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE	STARTER | K PROJ
1	Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.316 | +216	Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.324 | +209	George Kirby (SEA) | 5.48
2	Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.256 | +291	Jose Caballero (TB) | 0.32 | +212	Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 5.48
3	Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.247 | +305	Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.29 | +245	Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.42
4	Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.221 | +352	Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.221 | +352	Kumar Rocker (TEX) | 4.4
5	Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.21 | +376	Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.183 | +446	Carlos Carrasco (ATL) | 4.25
6	Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.203 | +393	Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.168 | +495	Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.8
7	Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.202 | +395	Evan Carter (TEX) | 0.167 | +499
8	Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.191 | +424	Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.164 | +510
9	Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.187 | +435	Wyatt Langford (TEX) | 0.157 | +537
10	Ryan McMahon (NYY) | 0.185 | +441	Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.142 | +604
11	Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.175 | +471	Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.135 | +641
12	Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.164 | +510	Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.133 | +652
13	Jose Adolis Garcia (TEX) | 0.162 | +517	Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.122 | +720
14	Wyatt Langford (TEX) | 0.161 | +521	Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.121 | +726
15	Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.15 | +567	Jake Fraley (CIN) | 0.11 | +809
16	Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.15 | +567	Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.108 | +826
17	Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.146 | +585	Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.107 | +835
18	Josh Naylor (SEA) | 0.139 | +619	Ke`Bryan Hayes (CIN) | 0.103 | +871
19	Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.139 | +619	Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.099 | +910
20	Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.139 | +619	Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.096 | +942