2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four odds, picks: Advanced computer model says fade Loyola-Chicago
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated the 2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four 10,000 times
A 2018 NCAA Tournament Final Four loaded with three traditional powers and one shocking underdog gets underway in the Alamodome in San Antonio on Saturday. Villanova is a 1/1 sportsbook favorite to win it all, followed by Michigan at 5/2, Kansas at 3/1 and Loyola-Chicago at 12/1.
Before you make any kind of pick on which team advances to the title game or cuts down the nets in San Antonio, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer has to say.
This model has simulated every game of the NCAA Tournament 10,000 times and comes into the Final Four 2018 on a blistering 8-1 run on its college basketball picks. It also knows when an upset is brewing, as it has nailed 12 of 18 upsets by double-digit seeds in the first round over the past three years. Now it has run the numbers for the four remaining teams and found some big value in the betting odds.
One thing we can tell you: The model doesn't like the value of No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago.
The Ramblers have been a feel-good story in the NCAA Tournament 2018, pulling off three heart-stopping victories before rolling past Kansas State in the Elite Eight to punch their ticket to the Final Four.
Inspired by 98-year old team chaplain Sister Jean, Loyola has used an elite defense to become just the fourth No. 11 seed to advance to the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
The Ramblers have held all four NCAA Tournament opponents to 68 points or fewer and enter the Final Four with the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation, giving up just 62.4 points per game.
But if they're going to turn this unlikely Final Four run into a miraculous title, there's still a lot of work to do.
First up is a battle against No. 3 seed Michigan, a team that matches Loyola's intensity on the defensive end. The Wolverines give up just 63.1 points per game and haven't lost since early February after rolling through the Big Ten Tournament and surviving several tight battles in the NCAA Tournament.
And if the Ramblers advance to the finals, they'll be met by a No. 1 seed -- either Kansas or Villanova. The Ramblers haven't knocked off anybody better than a third seed, and that win over Tennessee came down to the final shot.
Loyola's 12/1 title odds give the Ramblers an implied championship probability of 8.3 percent. But the model says that's too high because they only win it all in 3.6 percent of simulations. Don't fall for the trap of banking on Loyola to continue its inspiring run because there are far better values to be had.
The model has found one team with must-back value because it is winning it all in a higher percent of simulations than their odds would imply. You can find out who that team is, and see who else to fade, only over at SportsLine.
So which teams should you back to win it all and what other teams should you steer completely clear of this weekend? Visit SportsLine now to get the best title picks for the NCAA Tournament, all from a proven model that enters the Final Four on a 8-1 run on NCAA Tournament picks.















