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The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (20-4) enter the 2021 NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. However, the Gauchos face a substantial challenge in the opening round with a matchup against the Creighton Bluejays. Creighton (20-8) is the No. 5 seed in the West Region, with UC Santa Barbara as the No. 12 seed. The Gauchos won the Big West title, with Creighton falling to Georgetown in the finals of the Big East Tournament last week.

Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Indianapolis. The latest Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara odds from William Hill Sportsbook list the Bluejays as 7.5-point favorites, while the over-under is set at 137.5. Before finalizing any UC Santa Barbara vs. Creighton picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UC Santa Barbara vs. Creighton:

  • Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara spread: Creighton -7.5
  • Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara over-under: 137.5 points
  • Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara money line: Creighton -340, UCSB +270
  • CREI: The Bluejays are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UCSB: The Gauchos are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why Creighton can cover 

Creighton is a highly-experienced team, which could be helpful in the odd setting of this particular NCAA Tournament. In addition, veteran guard Marcus Zegarowski projects to be an X-factor. Zegarowski is averaging 15.5 points per game, and he is an All-Big East selection, providing the Bluejays with an important shot creator. With Zegarowski as the centerpiece, Creighton is an excellent offensive team, ranking second in the Big East and within the top 15 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

UC Santa Barbara is a balanced opponent with few clear weaknesses, but the Gauchos do struggle to protect the rim. That manifests in a shot-blocking rate of just 7.0 percent, and Creighton projects to have the edge in overall athleticism. UC Santa Barbara also faced a schedule that rates significantly easier than the national average, and this is a big step up in competition for the Gauchos.

Why UC Santa Barbara can cover

The Gauchos are an above-average offensive team, leading the Big West in both overall offensive efficiency and shooting efficiency. UC Santa Barbara is converting 54.4 percent of its 2-point attempts and 76.3 percent of its free throw attempts, landing well above the national average in both categories. The Gauchos also have only 6.0 percent of their shots blocked by their opponents, a top-10 national figure, and they are good at taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 16.5 percent of possessions. 

UC Santa Barbara also has a path to defensive success in this matchup. The Gauchos are above-average for the season in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover creation rate, defensive rebound rate and free throw rate allowed. Creighton is also one of the worst teams in the country at both creating free throws and converting them, making only 64.2 percent of its attempts. The Bluejays are also poor on the offensive glass, and the Gauchos can close possessions effectively as a result.

How to make UC Santa Barbara vs. Creighton picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 148 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.