armando-bacot-north-carolina-getty-images.jpg
USATSI

The Virginia Cavaliers can strengthen their case for an at-large bid to the 2022 NCAA Tournament when they host the No. 7 Duke Blue Devils in a key conference game on Wednesday at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va. With just a 3-5 record against Quad 1 teams, the Cavaliers (17-10, 11-6 in ACC) are widely considered well outside the 68-team bracket and are running out of opportunities against quality teams to enhance their résumé. Meanwhile the Blue Devils (23-4, 13-3) are projected to be either a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in March. 

Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are favored by five points in the latest Duke vs. Virginia odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over/Under for total points scored is 130. Before making any Virginia vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Virginia, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Virginia vs. Duke:

  • Duke vs. Virginia spread: Blue Devils -5
  • Duke vs. Virginia Over-Under: 130 points
  • Duke vs. Virginia money line: Duke -230, Virginia +190
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils rank third in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.62)
  • UVA: The Cavaliers rank 11th in the country in scoring defense (60.1 points allowed per game)

Why Duke can cover 

Opponents have had a difficult time shooting the ball against Duke this season. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in both field goal percentage defense (40.6) and 3-point percentage defense (29.7). Since Jan. 1, they have allowed opponents to shoot just 28.2 percent from beyond the arc, which is the best 3-point defense by any power conference team in that span.

In addition, sophomore Mark Williams has been a force recently. The 7-foot-1 center from Virginia Beach, Va., is averaging 13.6 points and shooting 78.4 percent (29-of-37) from the field over the last five games. A finalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year, he also leads the ACC and ranks 10th nationally in blocked shots per game (2.89). 

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia excels at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. The Cavaliers lead the ACC and rank 11th in the country in scoring defense (60.1 points allowed per game). Over their last six games, they have gone 5-1 and have allowed just 61.2 points per contest.

In addition, Virginia enters Wednesday's game knowing it already beat Duke on the road this month. On Feb. 7, Reece Beekman's 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds remaining proved to be the winning points in a 69-68 win against the seventh-ranked Blue Devils. The Cavaliers limited star Duke freshman Paolo Banchero to a season-low nine points on 3-of-9 shooting.

How to make Virginia vs. Duke picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 136 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Duke vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $2,000 on its college basketball picks the last five-plus years, and find out.