Is Villanova going to lose tonight? Plus, why National Signing Day is so important to top CFB programs

Villanova is 5-1, but it's not blowing teams out

By Tom Fornelli

Dec 16, 2020 at 3:27 pm ET • 4 min read

It's a big day for teenagers around the country because today is the first day of the early signing period in college football recruiting. Yes, that means it's time for college athletic departments to take the fax machines out of the utility closet, dust them off, plug them in and wait for those letters of intent to trickle in slowly.

While there are no immediate results, believe me when I tell you that recruiting matters a lot in the world of college football. The reason it's always the same teams at the top of the rankings year in and year out isn't just because they have the best coaches or the most impressive facilities. It's because they have the most talented rosters.

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So make sure you catch up on everything that has happened today. The conference title games aren't being played until the weekend, but the championships of the next few years are being decided today.

Elsewhere around the wide world of sports:

Now let's try to figure out which teams are going to miss fewer shots tonight.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Butler at No. 7 Villanova, 7 p.m. | TV: FS1
The Pick: Butler +13 (-110): Villanova is a trendy play tonight, and I understand why. Ranked teams tend to be more popular with the general public. For those who pay closer attention, there's also the fact Butler comes into this game having played once back on Nov. 25. So it's been a while. As far as I can tell, that's all leading to a line that's out of whack because I would put this closer to a 10-point game than a 13-point game.

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Villanova is 5-1, but it's not blowing teams out. Aside from a 34-point win over Hartford, the Wildcats have won their other four games by an average of 8.75 points. Their lone loss came to Virginia Tech in overtime. It's difficult for Villanova to blow teams out due to its slow pace, which limits overall possessions. The Wildcats' adjusted tempo of 66.0 ranks 350th of 357 teams on KenPom. Well, Butler doesn't move much quicker, as it ranks 323 in adjusted tempo. It's why the total for this game is so low. Finally, if we can take anything from college football in 2020, teams with a long time off between games have done very well against the spread. Maybe that trend carries over to the hardwood.

Key Trend: Butler is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Is SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model as smart as I am? I don't know, I'm not smart enough to figure that out. I do know it's not as handsome as I am, or at least I hope it isn't. Anyway, it has some strong leans for this game as well.

💰 More College Basketball Picks

TCU at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Oklahoma State -5 (-110) -- It's a battle of two somewhat similar teams with contrasting styles of play. Oklahoma State likes to move quickly on offense, while TCU wants a more deliberate pace. When I break this one down, I have more faith in Oklahoma State's defense than any other unit. The Cowboys don't foul a lot, nor do they give up easy looks, and have proven to be one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country so far. That defense is what I believe will allow them to control the tempo on offense and force TCU to play their game. I don't think TCU can do that effectively. Finally, TCU has been awful at the free-throw line. It's hard to cover on the road if you're not making your free throws.

Key Trend: TCU is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 on the road.

Montana at Washington, 11 p.m. | TV: Pac-12 Network
The Pick: Washington -7 (-115) -- I'm sure you don't watch a lot of Montana basketball, and that's all right. The Grizzlies are 1-4 to start the season, and their lone win came against Yellowstone Christian. I don't know if that's a school or the nickname of a park ranger at Yosemite that recently transferred. Anyway, in two games against major conference opponents, the Grizzlies are 0-2. They lost to USC by 14 and Georgia by 13.

This Washington team is similar to that Georgia team regarding its competence level, even if it's only 1-4 itself. However, the Huskies have played a demanding schedule so far, and this strikes me as a get right spot. They have an eFG% of only 43.7% so far, which is terrible, but they shoot 80.4% from the free-throw line. This tells me that they're a better shooting team than the numbers indicate, and we could see things balance out here. Plus, even if they don't, the Huskies are strong defensively.

Key Trend: Montana is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking for a pick for tonight's ACC clash between Duke and Clemson? The Advanced Computer Model has simulated the matchup and likes what it sees.