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The Arizona State Sun Devils and Mississippi State Bulldogs will square off in the 2023 Barstool Sports Invitational on Wednesday night to open the season. Both teams reached the NCAA Tournament last season, making this a good test for both squads to open their respective 2023-24 campaigns. Arizona State went 23-13 before winning a play-in game against Nevada in the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi State fell to Pittsburgh in a 60-59 thriller in a First Four matchup to end its season. 

Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Wintrust Arena. The Bulldogs are favored by 3.5 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Arizona State odds, while the over/under is set at 129.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Arizona State vs. Mississippi State picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It went 85-55 on all top-rated college basketball picks last season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anyone who followed it saw huge returns.  

The model has set its sights on Arizona State vs. Mississippi State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:

  • Arizona State vs. Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -3.5
  • Arizona State vs. Mississippi State over/under: 129.5 points
  • Arizona State vs. Mississippi State money line: Mississippi State: -175, Arizona State: +145
  • Arizona State vs. Mississippi State picks: See picks here

Why Mississippi State can cover

Mississippi State put together an impressive opening season under first-year coach Chris Jans, going 21-13 before getting knocked out of the First Four of the NCAA Tournament by Pittsburgh. The Bulldogs held opponents to just 61 points per game, which was the lowest for the team since the 2002-03 season. They are going to be without star forward Tolu Smith (foot) until conference play, but they brought back several other key contributors to go along with some transfers. 

Senior forward D.J. Jeffries averaged 8.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season, while senior guard Dashawn Davis averaged 8.7 points and 3.5 assists. West Virginia transfer Jimmy Bell Jr. will help fill Smith's void on Wednesday night after averaging 4.8 points and 5.2 rebounds for the Mountaineers last year. The Sun Devils are going to be without a key player of their own, as transfer Adam Miller is still awaiting an eligibility ruling from the NCAA. 

Why Arizona State can cover

The Bulldogs are going to have trouble replacing Smith, who was an All-SEC First Team selection. He averaged 15.7 points and 8.5 rebounds last season, and he has started 84 games across three seasons with the team. Mississippi State failed to cover the spread in five straight games to close the 2022-23 campaign, while Arizona State covered in six of its final nine games. 

The Sun Devils blew out Nevada in a play-in game before losing a close contest against TCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They returned just three players from that team, but head coach Bobby Hurley brought in seven Division I transfers this offseason. Junior guard Frankie Collins is a key returner after averaging 9.7 points, 4.3 assists and 4.1 rebounds last year. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mississippi State vs. Arizona State picks

The model has simulated Arizona State vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Arizona State, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that went 85-55 on its top-ranked college basketball picks last season, and find out.