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The 25th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks continue their rugged schedule Friday at home in an SEC on CBS matchup against the Missouri Tigers. The Razorbacks (7-4) have faced six ranked teams, beating three of them, and now they face Missouri (6-5) in the budding Battle Line Rivalry. The teams from bordering states have met 12 times since 1906 but have become regular rivals since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012 and the series resumed in 2014. Missouri is 9-3 in head-to-head matchups, but the Razorbacks have been tested this season and have a quarterback who makes a huge impact in KJ Jefferson.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Razorbacks as the 14.5-point favorites in its latest Missouri vs. Arkansas odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 63.5. Before making any Arkansas vs. Missouri picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Missouri vs. Arkansas and just released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines and trends for Arkansas vs. Missouri:  

  • Missouri vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas -14.5  
  • Missouri vs. Arkansas over-under: 63.5 points 
  • Missouri vs. Arkansas moneyline: Missouri +450, Arkansas -650
  • MISS: It is 8-13 ATS over the past two seasons 
  • ARK: It is 13-7-1 ATS since the start of last season

Why the Razorbacks can cover

Arkansas has lost to the top two teams in the nation, along with top-10 Ole Miss and Auburn. Missouri can't throw anything better at it, and the home team is 9-1 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. The Mizzou defense allows almost 35 points per game (118th in FBS) and is ranked 125th against run, yielding 235 yards per contest. That will be a problem against an Arkansas offense led by Jefferson, who has accounted for 25 touchdowns this season.

The sophomore quarterback has 2,316 passing yards and 496 on the ground, one of four players to top 475 rushing yards. Trelon Smith (555 yards, four TDs), Dominique Johnson (479, seven) and Raheim Sanders (478) should find holes against the Tigers, and receiver Treylon Burks (975 yards, 10 TDs) can get open deep. Burks also gets the occasional hand-off and broke a 49-yard TD earlier this season. The defense is led by hard-nosed linebackers Bumper Pool (107 tackles), Grant Morgan (89, one interception) and Hayden Henry (84, three sacks). 

Why the Tigers can cover

Missouri has a star of its own in running back Tyler Badie, who has rushed for 355 yards in the past two games and is fourth in the nation with 1,385 rushing yards. He also has 335 receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns. He was a backup last season when the teams met in Columbia, but he had 79 yards on just six carries in a 50-48 victory. The teams combined for more than 1,200 yards, with almost half coming on the ground. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the teams' last five meetings, and Missouri should come in with confidence after consecutive SEC victories.

Sophomore QB Connor Bazelak has 2,483 passing yards and 16 TDs, completing more than 67 percent of his throws. He was sacked five times last week but had been taken down just eight times in his previous nine starts. Receivers Tauskie Dove (34 catches for 542 yards) and Keke Chism (33 for 410) move the chains along with Badie (53 receptions). The defense has 16 takeaways, with Jaylon Carlies getting four of the unit's 11 picks. Safety Martez Manuel has a team-high 70 tackles, while linebacker Blaze Alldredge has four sacks and a fumble recovery.    

How to make Missouri vs. Arkansas picks

The model is going under on the total, projecting 60 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's Arkansas vs. Missouri pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Friday's Missouri vs. Arkansas matchup? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Arkansas vs. Missouri spread to back Friday, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.