Albany v Baylor
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The No. 17 Baylor Bears will try to pick up their first road win of the season when they face Iowa State on Saturday afternoon. Baylor lost at then-No. 21 BYU in double overtime two weeks ago, but it bounced back with a 42-7 blowout over Texas State. Iowa State brings a perfect 3-0 record into this contest, including a 43-10 win against Ohio last week.

Kickoff is set for noon ET. The Cyclones are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Iowa State vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before locking in any Baylor vs. Iowa State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 4 of the 2022 college football season on a 51-43 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Iowa State vs. Baylor. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for Baylor vs. Iowa State:

  • Iowa State vs. Baylor spread: Iowa State -2.5
  • Iowa State vs. Baylor over/under: 45 points
  • Iowa State vs. Baylor picks: See picks here

Why Iowa State can cover

Baylor kickstarted a conference schedule that ended with the Bears winning their first-ever outright Big 12 championship last year when it beat Iowa State by two points at home. The Cyclones are poised to return the favor on Saturday, as they have won six of their last nine home games against Baylor. They have also won six consecutive home games overall, including last week's blowout win over Ohio.

Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers has completed 78 of 105 passes for 745 yards and eight touchdowns through the first three games of the season. The Cyclones have also been a strong defensive team, recording 14 tackles for loss and five sacks, led by All-American defensive end Will McDonald IV. Baylor has already lost one road game this season, and Iowa State is ready to deal the Bears their second road loss on Saturday. 

Why Baylor can cover

Baylor will be the best opponent that Iowa State has faced this season, and the Bears have a competitive edge after playing BYU on the road earlier this month. Their run defense has been spectacular, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Iowa State ranks ninth in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game, which is going to make it difficult for the Cyclones to put up points on Saturday. 

The Bears led the conference in rushing yards last season, and they are averaging 234.7 per game this year. They put up 69 points against Albany and 42 points against Texas State, so they are prepared to outscore Iowa State this week. Baylor has won six of the last nine meetings between these teams, covering the spread in four of the last five outings. 

How to make Baylor vs. Iowa State picks

The model has simulated Iowa State vs. Baylor 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Iowa State? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Iowa State vs. Baylor spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.