2026 College Football Playoff semifinal odds, spreads: Picks, best predictions from proven model

SportsLine's model has revealed its CFP semifinal predictions after 10,000 simulations of Indiana vs. Oregon and Ole Miss vs. Miami

By Ross Kelly

Jan 6, 2026 at 9:03 am ET • 2 min read

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The 2025-26 college football bowl schedule saw its final standard bowl games on Friday, Jan. 2, but the season extends well into January as the 2026 College Football Playoff semifinals are up next. Ole Miss vs. Miami in the Fiesta Bowl is up first on Thursday, Jan. 8, while Oregon vs. Indiana in the Peach Bowl is the following day. The national championship game will then take place on Monday, Jan. 19.

The latest college football odds lists Miami at -3.5 with the over/under at 51.5 in the first semifinal matchup. Indiana is -4 with the over/under at 46.5 in the second CFP semifinal. All four teams in the CFP field are 9-5 against the spread this season thus far. Every team except Oregon has covered in each CFP matchup thus far as well. The Ducks didn't cover (-20.5) vs. James Madison in the first round. Before locking in any college football picks for those games, be sure to see the latest College Football Playoff picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds and 2025-26 bowl season college football betting lines on the spread, money line and over/under. Head here to see every pick.

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins:

Top college football predictions for the CFP semifinals

One of the college football picks the model is high on during the semifinal round of the College Football Playoffs: The Under (46.5) hits in the rematch between Oregon and Indiana on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

These teams met in Eugene on Oct. 11 and combined for 50 points. Both squads, however, have elite defenses that have been on display in the CFP. Oregon shut Texas Tech out in a 23-0 final in the quarterfinals, while Indiana held Alabama to just three points in its quarterfinal matchup.

SportsLine's model is projecting 46 points this time around as the Under hits in 54% of simulations. See the rest of the model's picks here, and bet the Under right here:

How to make College Football Playoff picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in both CFP games, including a spread pick in both games that hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine, and for a limited time you can use promo code CHAMPIONSHIP to get your first month at SportsLine for $1.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and which underdog is projected to win outright? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has simulated every game 10,000 times, and find out.