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The first round of the 2025 College football Playoff concludes on Saturday night when the No. 5 Oregon Ducks host the No. 12 James Madison Dukes. James Madison, the Sun Belt champion, got a spot in the CFP bracket thanks in large part to Duke upsetting Virginia in the ACC title game, making JMU one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Oregon had a strong 11-1 campaign, but didn't hold a tiebreaker to get into the Big Ten title game.

Kickoff from Autzen Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Ducks are 21-point favorites in the latest Oregon vs. James Madison odds, while the over/under is 45.5. Before making any James Madison vs. Oregon picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Oregon vs. James Madison. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for James Madison vs. Oregon:

Oregon vs. James Madison spread

Oregon -21

Oregon vs. James Madison over/under

45.5 points

Oregon vs. James Madison money line 

Oregon -2000, JMU +1000

Oregon vs. James Madison picks

See picks at SportsLine

Oregon vs. James Madison streaming 

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Why Oregon can cover

Oregon rolls into the CFP field with three straight covers and a strong 8-4 record against the spread this season. Oregon is the largest favorite to this point in any bowl or playoff game, and that's because the Ducks own a huge talent edge across the board and will be playing on their home field. Quarterback Dante Moore is a possible top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft as he comes into this matchup with 2,733 passing yards, 24 touchdown passes and just six interceptions on the season. Dan Lanning's squad also ranked third in the Big Ten in scoring defense (14.8 points per game) and will present a challenge that James Madison isn't accustomed to. See which side to back at SportsLine.

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Why James Madison can cover

JMU went 8-5 against the spread this season and the Dukes were 1-0 ATS as road underdogs -- covering at Louisville earlier in the season. The Dukes are built to run the ball, leading the Sun Belt with 245.7 yards per game on the ground. Running back Wayne Knight led the way with 1,263 rushing yards, while quarterback Alonza Barnett III had 544 yards and 14 scores on the ground. That proficiency on the ground could shrink this game and give the three-score underdog a chance to keep this one within the number against an Oregon team that was blown out in its only CFP game last season. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make James Madison vs. Oregon picks

After simulating this matchup 10,000 times, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (45.5 points). The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the model's pick at SportsLine.  

So who wins Oregon vs. James Madison, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up on its top-ranked money-line picks, and find out.