Alabama will have a tough time repeating as SEC champion if history has any say. (USATSI)
Alabama will have a tough time repeating as SEC champion if history has any say.  (USATSI)

HOOVER, Ala. -- When will the SEC have a repeat conference champion? It’s Alabama’s turn -- again -- to try to end the longest streak ever by any current conference without a repeat league champion.

The SEC sits at 16 years and counting since Tennessee accomplished the feat in 1997-98. It’s one of the more remarkable streaks in college football -- both a testament to the SEC’s depth and a warning over how quickly success can disappear in the league.

“It is unusual because there has been so many really good teams with a shot at it,” said former Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer, the last coach to pull it off. “I emphatically try to make people understand that winning a division in this league is like winning the old SEC when they only played six conference games. Now it’s almost like winning the division and winning the SEC championship is like winning the national semifinals.”

Most recent repeat champions
Conference Last repeat champ Seasons
SEC 1997-98 (Tennessee) 16
C-USA 2008-09 (East Carolina) 5
Big Ten 2010-12 (Wisconsin) 2
MAC 2011-12 (Northern Illinois) 2
Sun Belt 2011-13 (Arkansas State) 1
MWC 2012-13 (Fresno State) 1
Pac-12 2012-13 (Stanford) 1
ACC 2013-14 (Florida State) 0
Big 12 2013-14 (Baylor) 0
AAC 2013-14 (American) 0
WAC 2008-10 (Boise State) 2*
Big East 2011-12 (Cincy, L'ville) 0*
* The WAC and Big East no longer exist.

It’s at this point in the conversation America will remind the SEC that its past two champions lost in the postseason with the national title at stake. The SEC is 0-5 over the past two years in BCS/College Football Playoff games, losing those contests by an average of 15.6 points after going 10-4 in BCS games from 2006 to 2012 with an average margin of victory of 11 points.

So winning the SEC in and of itself doesn’t mean the champion is the country’s best team. For the first time in a while, the SEC faces questions about its national standing.

Still, no other conference comes close to this streak of no repeat SEC champions. The Big Ten is the closest among Power Five conferences for consecutive years without a repeat champ -- a “streak” that is at two years and counting.

At this rate, it’s going to soon be realistic to wonder if the SEC can break the record for most consecutive years without a repeat champion by a Division I conference. The Southwest Conference went 23 years without a repeat champ from 1917 to 1939.

So why is this happening in the SEC? Let's take a look.

1. SEC fans are crazy -- and so is the pressure on coaches: Only the SEC has these many fan bases that crave football success. Eight of the top 15 attendance leaders in 2014 play in the SEC. The SEC’s No. 13 team in attendance (Kentucky) had better average crowds than the Pac-12 champion (Oregon) and co-Big 12 champions (Baylor, TCU). They don’t just want or hope for success in the SEC. They’ll try to buy it.

The last-place coach in the SEC West this season will make at least $4 million in 2015. Within eight years, the entire sport went from no $4 million coaches to the game’s most competitive division having all seven coaches making at least $4 million. In 1997, the year before the last repeat SEC champion, the average SEC coach made about $471,000, topped by Steve Spurrier at $848,850.

More money equals more scrutiny; more scrutiny equals more pressure. More pressure equals more competition. This is the league, after all, where Gene Chizik got fired two years after winning a national championship once Auburn went in the tank.

2. Evolving style of play: College football’s style used to be very predictable. The “three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust” approach is long gone, giving way to up-tempo, spread offenses and unique plays and formations. Alabama could have been a repeat SEC champion in 2013 if not for Gus Malzahn’s offense, which traditionally frustrates Nick Saban’s defense, which prefers to regularly substitute and not face downfield blockers.

Team dynasties used to be the norm in the SEC, spanning the Bear Bryant, Herschel Walker and Steve Spurrier eras. Alabama won five straight SEC titles from 1971-75 and three in a row from 1977-79. Georgia had at least a share of three in a row from 1980-82. Auburn enjoyed a share of three straight from 1987-89. Florida won four in a row from 1993-96; then came the Vols repeat in 1997-98.

Now, there has been no repeat champ for 16 years. Prior to this stretch, the SEC’s longest drought without a repeat champion was seven years, from 1956-62.

3. Schedules matter: Alabama will likely be the favorite to win the SEC again this year. But the Crimson Tide in 2015 faces its toughest schedule since the SEC expanded to 14 teams. Alabama swaps a down Florida team from the East for division favorite Georgia in Athens, plus the Crimson Tide plays at Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn.

SEC champions: one season later
Season Champion Following season
2014 Alabama TBD
2013 Auburn 8-5, T-4th in West
2012 Alabama 11-2, T-1st in West
2011 LSU 10-3, T-2nd in West
2010 Auburn 8-5, 4th in West
2009 Alabama 10-3, 4th in West
2008 Florida 13-1, Lost SEC Championship
2007 LSU 8-5, 3rd in West
2006 Florida 9-4, 3rd in East
2005 Georgia 9-4, T-3rd in East
2004 Auburn 9-3, T-1st in West
2003 LSU 9-3, 2nd in West
2002 Georgia 11-3, Lost SEC Championship
2001 LSU 8-5, T-2nd in West
2000 Florida 10-2, 2nd in East
1999 Alabama 3-9, T-Last in West
1998 Tennessee 9-3, 2nd in East
1997 Tennessee 13-0, SEC Champions

Opponents no longer fear Alabama the way they did early in the Nick Saban era. “We’re held to a standard when I first got here that people feared and didn’t want to play,” center Ryan Kelly said. “We kind of got away from that the last few years. People thought we were beatable.”

Saban said it will be a challenge for Alabama to reestablish the identity it wants. Alabama’s toughest games on paper (as of now) are relatively spread out, although its final two SEC games come on the road (Mississippi State and Auburn).

Last year, Auburn tried to defend the SEC with a closing conference schedule that included trips to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama and a home game against Texas A&M.

“Our schedule was a little bit different the year before (2013) with home games and away games,” Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. “People outside this league, specifically outside the West, they don’t understand it unless they’re in it how tough it is week to week and the grind and how it wears on you.”

Since Tennessee's back-to-back titles, 13 of the 16 SEC champions lost at least two conference games the next season. Only two SEC champions even returned to the conference championship game a year later: Georgia in 2003 and Florida in 2009.

4. Target on your back: One of the primary reasons Tennessee repeated in 1998 was its underdog status. The Volunteers had lost a ton of NFL talent from 1997, including Peyton Manning, and were picked behind Florida in the East. Tennessee was still a preseason top-10 pick nationally, but it was coming off an embarrassing 42-17 Orange Bowl loss to Nebraska and had dropped five straight games to the rival Gators.

“I think you kind of have that bulls-eye when you're the champion, but that wasn’t the case with us,” Fulmer said. “The team and coaches did a great job of going to work and proving everybody wrong, that we were still Tennessee, and that was kind of the motto the kids really rallied around.”

Good luck getting Alabama to play the underdog role in 2015, even with so much of its offense gone. Saban has recruited too well for too long for the Crimson Tide not to have the target on its back.

“If they won the SEC the year before, they’re usually pretty fat and happy about it, and in this league you can’t be fat and happy about anything because you’re going to become the target when you’re SEC champs,” Saban said.

Alabama always has a target on its back. But if history is any indication, the target will be a lot bigger in 2015 and you might want to pick someone other than the Crimson Tide to win the SEC.