2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Frank Stampfl's 20 most-drafted players include Manny Machado, Bryce Harper

Frank Stampfl offers up the players he actually drafts most heading into the big weekend.

Of course there are players I want at every position. That's part of the preparation process for any Fantasy Baseball season. Whether or not I wind up drafting all of those players is a different story. In snake drafts, you're really just at the mercy of what's available to you when you're on the clock. 

You've read about my favorite Sleepers like Kenta Maeda and Bryan Reynolds, and Breakouts like J.D. Davis and Alex Verdugo, who are definite targets of mine. Below, you'll find plenty of them among the players I've actually drafted most, for one reason or another. It could be because they're overlooked or perhaps they're just a long-standing Fantasy-crush of mine. Target these players in your drafts leading up to Opening Day and you'll be sure to bask in Fantasy glory, and check out Scott White's 20 most-drafted players for a different perspective. 

J.D. Martinez is basically Nolan Arenado, except he gets drafted 10-12 picks later and has outfield eligibility. Over the past three seasons, Martinez's average season is .313-98-41-113-4. He's also lowered his strikeout rate in each of those seasons while maintaining a 10.8% walk rate. Basically, he's a stud regardless of format. He won't give you any steals but is one of the most reliable four-category contributors you can find. Martinez is especially useful if you choose to take one of Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom in the first round and then want a hitter in the second.  

If I miss out on Martinez in the second round, it's time to turn to Bryce Harper. There are some trade-offs, however, specifically in Roto. Harper isn't going to bat .300 like Martinez, but what he lacks in batting average, he should make up for with steals. Harper got off to a slow start in his first season with the Phillies, batting just .248 with a 30% strikeout rate through May. From June 1 on, though, Harper hit .267 with 25 home runs and a .903 OPS. To put that in perspective, Cody Bellinger hit .262 with 27 home runs and a .933 OPS during that same span. Harper is also a stud in points leagues given his 14.7% walk rate. Trust him at that two-three turn. 

It's true. Mike Clevinger has battled injuries over the past few seasons, but you're potentially getting first round talent in the second, sometimes third round. Just how good has he been? Since the start of 2017, he has a 2.96 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Just last year he had a 16-start stretch from July 3 through September 24 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP while averaging 11.8 K/9. His 19 Fantasy points per game last season ranked behind only Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. I'm fine with him as my SP1 in that late-second, early-third round range. 

You often hear about Lamar Jackson being a cheat code in Fantasy Football because of his running ability. Well I'm here to tell you Charlie Morton is a cheat code in Fantasy Baseball, and it has nothing to do with his running ability. Morton gets dinged for his age, often being drafted in round four or later. Considering Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are drafted two rounds earlier, Morton is a draft-day steal. Last season he finished as the SP7 overall in both formats and was the best we've ever seen him. Over 194.2 innings, he pitched to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, averaging 11.1 K/9. I'll gladly take him as my SP2 on Draft Day. 

Yes, Manny Machado has a career .890 OPS at Camden Yards. Does that mean he can't be great with the Padres? Let's slow our roll, because Dodger Stadium is not the hitter's haven that Camden is, either and Machado owned an .874 OPS at Dodger Stadium after being traded there in 2018. There's also the fact that Machado was hit by a pitch in his left arm on August 8 last season, when he was batting .272/.340/.494. He would go on to hit just .213 the rest of the way. Let's not forget he was a top-six third baseman and shortstop in both Roto and H2H points from 2015-2018. Put some respect on Machado's name!

We're now entering the White Sox territory of the draft. I often wind up with Eloy Jimenez as my OF2 because of his hit tool coupled with ridiculous raw power. It was an up-and-down rookie season for Jimenez but he really took off over his final 52 games. During that span, he hit .308 with 14 home runs and a .917 OPS. What separates Jimenez from other sluggers is that hit tool. During his minor-league career, he carried a .311 batting average. While I wouldn't expect that in 2020, I think he can settle in as a .280-.290 hitter. 

It's no surprise I've become synonymous with Jose Abreu on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. The guy is just incredibly consistent. He's batted .284 or higher five times, driven in 100 RBI five times, and has hit 30+ home runs in four of those. If you're worried about him being 33 years old, don't be. Last season he posted career-highs in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH, 94th percentile) and barrel rate (12.8%, 19th among qualified hitters). Admittedly, he is better in Roto than H2H points because he doesn't walk much, but he's a strong option in either. 

I was quite sure that once David Ortiz retired, we would not see another hitter like him… and then Nelson Cruz just kept rolling. I'm just amazed at what he's been able to do in his advanced age. Last year was his age-39 season and it was somehow his best. In just 120 games, he mashed 41 home runs while batting .311 with a career-high 1.031 OPS. His Statcast numbers were also abusrd, as Cruz's average exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG, and xwOBA were all in the 98th percentile or better. Yes, he's 40 years old, but I do not care. I'll take him in the fifth or sixth round. 

Some will credit PEDs for Frankie Montas' breakout (he served an 80-game suspension last season) and to those claims, we laugh. It was only 16 starts, but Montas posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, striking out 103 in 96 innings pitched. While his 11.5% swinging strike rate wasn't elite, his 35% chase rate and 49% ground ball rate were both near-elite. Montas added a splitter to his arsenal last season, which really helped play up his sinker and slider. I often grab Montas as my SP4 in round eight or nine. 

You'll notice a theme as I like to gobble up the value on older players. Michael Brantley is 33 years old but has showed no signs of falling off. Just last season he was a Top-21 outfielder in both formats, yet he's being drafted as the OF33 this year. He still makes a ton of contact, hits for a high batting average and bats in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. He may be a little boring but finding a .300 hitter with decent power is usually a rarity after pick 100. I don't mind drafting Brantley as my OF2 or OF3 regardless of format. 

Ken Giles has been inconsistent over the years but when he's on, he's on, and he was on last year. Giles finished with 23 saves, posting a 1.87 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. His 39.9% strikeout percentage and 18.8% swinging strike rate were both fourth among relievers last season. I have a fair amount of faith in his job security as well considering the Blue Jays' setup men are Anthony Bass and Shun Yamaguchi. I often win up with Giles as my RP1 in Roto leagues. 

I've made a rule for this draft season where I need to wind up with one of Montas, Zac Gallen, or Max Fried on every single one of my teams. Those are my favorite breakout candidates and for good reason. With Gallen, let's first look at what he did in the minors last season: In 91.1 innings in the PCL (which had a league-wide ERA of 5.48), Gallen posted a 1.77 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP, striking out 112 batters. While he struggled a bit with command in the majors, he still flashed his strikeout upside, averaging 10.8 K/9. Like Montas, I draft Gallen as my SP4 in round eight or nine. 

If you focus on batting average and steals early on in your Roto drafts, Franmil Reyes is a fantastic complement. While many flock towards sluggers like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge earlier on, Reyes hits the ball just as hard and can  be had 50-70 picks later. Over the past two seasons, Reyes' 46.2% hard contact rate ranks 15th among all hitters with at least 75 plate appearances. With everyday playing time in the middle of a solid Cleveland lineup, expect Reyes to approach a 40-homer pace this season. 

I guess I finally let Adam Aizer get to me with all his TAP-HAP-AMC (Editor's Note: That stands for "Two Aces Plus Hader And Paxton ..." and I can't remember the rest, but rest assured, he likes Paxton a lot) talk. The truth is you're getting James Paxton at a discount because he had back surgery back in February, but he's healthy now and is slated to start the second game of the season for the Yankees. Paxton has had issues with home runs the past two seasons but his strikeout upside is immense. During that stretch, his 11.4 K/9 ranks fifth among starting pitchers while his 14.2% swinging strike rate ranks eighth. I often wind up with Paxton as my SP3 or SP4in round seven or eight. 

As mentioned, Fried is one of my three favorite breakout candidates. The young lefty checks a lot of the boxes. Last year he struck out 173 in 165.2 innings while allowing just 2.55 BB/9 with a 54% ground ball rate. He started using his slider more in the second half, which helped him post a 3.63 ERA with a 3.12 xFIP. There's been a lot of talk about him developing a changeup this offseason too, which should help him neutralize right-handed batters. It wouldn't surprise me if Fried is being drafted as a Top-20 pitcher in 2021. 

Admittedly, drafting Craig Kimbrel this season is kind of a blind faith pick. Last season Kimbrel didn't sign until June because he was attached to draft-pick compensation. You can tell he wasn't ready to pitch as he went 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA. I'm really just trusting that that was a fluke and he can get back to his 2018 form when he saved 42 games with a 2.74 ERA. It helps that there isn't much competition in the Cubs' bullpen. If I miss out on Giles as my RP1, I often wind up with Kimbrel a few rounds later. 

The expectations were higher for Wilson Ramos last season but it's not like he was bad. He wound up hitting .288 with 14 homers and 73 RBI. Those are still good numbers for a catcher. It's often discussed but Ramos needs to lift the ball more, and it's something he has talked about doing this offseason. Last season he had a 62% ground ball rate with an average launch angle of… 0.0. ZERO! He'll be better. I usually draft Ramos as my first catcher regardless of format in the double-digit rounds. 

2020 is officially the year of the utility bat. Nelson Cruz and Khris Davis represent two of the best values in drafts. Davis had a very disappointing 2019, but I believe most of that was due to a hip/oblique injury he suffered on May 5. Before the injury, Davis had 10 homers with a .252 ISO in 35 games. Following the injury, he hit just 13 home runs with a .134 ISO in 98 games. Let's not forget that in the three seasons prior to 2019, Davis never hit less than 42 home runs. He can often be drafted in rounds 12-14, sometimes even later. 

If Abreu is the hitter I'm most tied to, Joe Musgrove is the pitcher. We all have "our guys", players you just can't give up on, and Musgrove is one of those players for me. It's a small sample size but over his final four games last season, he saw an uptick in velocity and started using his secondary pitches more. This resulted in a 2.25 ERA with an 11.8 K/9. The Pirates brought in a new pitching coach as well, Oscar Marin, who is more analytically advanced than previous pitching coach Ray Searage. You could easily draft Musgrove as your SP6 or SP7 in the later rounds. 

Another cheat code in Fantasy Baseball is Dansby Swanson, who is being drafted outside the top 250! Last season Swanson was finally breaking out before he suffered a heel injury. In his first 85 games, Swanson was batting .269 with 15 homers, 55 runs scored, 52 RBI and seven steals. The guy was a five-category contributor. We know the prospect pedigree is there and it was just a matter of time until he broke out. I wouldn't necessarily want him as my starting shortstop but he's a great middle infielder in Roto leagues.