Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Tiering closers — who can you really trust?

There's a difference in the way managers have approached the ninth inning this season, and it's forcing our Scott White to reconsider the way he approaches closers.

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It had to happen eventually.

As rapidly as the game has changed in other areas over the past few years, from lineup construction to infield shifts to escalating strike rates to a newfound appreciation for the fly ball, it seemed like only a matter of time before the most widely scrutinized practice of all went belly-up.

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So here we are: 2018, the first year in which the fixed closer is no longer a fixture.

As we near the season's midway point, I couldn't tell you who the Astros or Phillies, two honest-to-goodness contenders, will turn to for their next save chance, and that has been true for each more or less all year. The Angels have only recently shown a preference for Blake Parker and the White Sox for Joakim Soria. A poor outing for either could send his manager's eyes a-wandering. Meanwhile, the Rays still have yet to settle on a closer after trading Alex Colome to the Mariners, but seeing as they've turned traditional bullpen usage completely on its head, often beginning the game with a short reliever on the hill, I doubt it's much of a priority for them.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. At different points this season, the Blue Jays, Brewers, Braves, Cardinals, Orioles, Padres, Rangers have at least flirted with the idea of having more than one reliever fill ninth-inning duties. When that many teams invite uncertainty to a role that's already known for its volatility, the next big saves source becomes sort of a moving target, keeping Fantasy owners a step behind at a position where role is everything.

It's a little like when backfield committees started to spring up all over the NFL. Once you can no longer count on the player at the top of the depth chart to serve as the bell cow, the few throwbacks who do command a premium in drafts and trades.

We're not quite there yet for saves, but with two of the brainiest organizations at the forefront and copycats lurking, the movement is beginning, to the cheers of countless number crunchers who have long argued that a game's most pivotal moment isn't always the ninth inning.

It shouldn't concern you so much as an owner of Craig Kimbrel, Wade Davis or anyone else who is genuinely entrenched in the role. But with guys like Hunter Strickland and Kelvin Herrera, who have been just as certain of handling their teams' save chances to this point but have clear impediments to their longevity in the role, it has to change your approach. While in the past, one pitcher losing save chances meant another would inherit them, now there's a reasonable chance a committee could spring up in his place.

Bottom line is that in this year more than any other, I care who my closer is. I don't care as much as I care who my third baseman or SP2 is, but I care. What I had long approached as more or less just a giant tier of saves-getters, with varying degrees of dominance therein, I now see as three distinct tiers.

And if I have one of the top-tier guys, I may not be so willing to give him up — not even for a better third baseman or SP2.

Tier 1: As secure as it gets

1	Craig Kimbrel Boston Red Sox RP
2	Aroldis Chapman New York Yankees RP
3	Edwin Diaz Seattle Mariners RP
4	Kenley Jansen Los Angeles Dodgers RP
5	Sean Doolittle Washington Nationals RP
6	Brad Hand San Diego Padres RP
7	Wade Davis Colorado Rockies RP
8	Corey Knebel Milwaukee Brewers RP
9	Brandon Morrow Chicago Cubs RP
10	Blake Treinen Oakland Athletics RP

Yup, we can pretty much all agree who the great closers are. Some might question what kind of leash Kenley Jansen has after his poor start to the season, but while his numbers haven't recovered to their usual standard, a 2.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning is still objectively good.

Others you might second-guess include Brad Hand, Corey Knebel and Blake Treinen. Hand pitches for a miserable team but is one of the most overpowering relievers in baseball and has had no trouble piling up saves so far. Knebel quickly reclaimed ninth-inning duties after returning from the DL, even with Josh Hader's continued dominance, and is bolstered by last year's numbers. As for Treinen, all I can say if you don't think he belongs is that you obviously haven't been paying attention.

Tier 2: Looks OK, but ...

1	Brad Boxberger Arizona Diamondbacks RP
2	Raisel Iglesias Cincinnati Reds RP
3	Jeurys Familia New York Mets RP
4	Felipe Vazquez Pittsburgh Pirates RP
5	Cody Allen Cleveland Indians RP
6	Kelvin Herrera Kansas City Royals RP
7	Arodys Vizcaino Atlanta Braves RP
8	Fernando Rodney Minnesota Twins RP
9	Keone Kela Texas Rangers RP
10	Hunter Strickland San Francisco Giants RP

Part of the beauty of tiers is that everyone brings their own instincts, biases and assumptions to them, so they're never going to look exactly the same for two different people — or from one day to the next. So if you want to second-guess what I've done here, well, I'm right there with you. 

Say Raisel Iglesias reels off four saves over the next week, for instance. I'm going to feel kind of silly for leaving him out of the first group since, in terms of ratios, he clearly belongs. My feeling now, though, is that the Reds are so bad -- and a particular kind of bad that makes them less likely to win low-scoring games -- that he won't deliver a competitive saves total. And because they're so bad, he's likely on the move at the trade deadline anyway, probably to become a setup man elsewhere.

Felipe Vazquez and Cody Allen seem to have long leashes and have performed like high-end closers in the past, but they've been so unreliable this year that you can't just assume everything's hunky-dory with them. Meanwhile, Kelvin Herrera is sure to be traded at some point, Arodys Vizcaino isn't the best reliever on his own team, and Hunter Strickland is looking over his shoulder at a more expensive reliever who's far more established as a closer and appears to be back to full health.

Tier 3: Man, who the heck knows?

1	Bud Norris St. Louis Cardinals RP
2	Zach Britton Baltimore Orioles RP
3	Kyle Barraclough Miami Marlins RP
4	Blake Parker Los Angeles Angels RP
5	Ken Giles Houston Astros RP
6	Shane Greene Detroit Tigers RP
7	Seranthony Dominguez Philadelphia Phillies RP
8	Ryan Tepera Toronto Blue Jays RP
9	Joakim Soria Chicago White Sox RP
10	Sergio Romo Tampa Bay Rays RP

Bud Norris only recently dropped to this tier, both because of his own inconsistencies and the newfound strikeout ability for Jordan Hicks, the man with the 103-mph fastball. Beyond him, there are pitches who are still trying to reclaim the closer role (Zach Britton, Ken Giles), pitchers who are re-acclimating to it (Kyle Barraclough, Blake Parker) and pitchers who we just don't think are particularly good (Shane Greene, Ryan Tepera, Joakim Soria and Sergio Romo).

And then there's Seranthony Dominguez, who by all recent indications is especially good. He's an odd case, being the one guy in these three tiers who we have good reason to believe isn't the Phillies' first choice for saves. But because it looks like a true committee and because there isn't a clear standout apart from him and because manager Gabe Kapler has already shown a willingness to let him finish a game from whatever point he enters, I suspect he'll end up leading the Phillies in saves, even if it's with fewer than 20.