Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Freddie Freeman joins already loaded Dodgers lineup, but how can he improve?
A hitter who's already so perfect has little more to be gained.
By
Scott White
•
3 min read
Freddie Freeman signing with the Dodgers is an earthshaking, landscape-altering, bring-the-league-to-its-knees sort of development that already has and will continue to spawn a thousand think pieces.
But for Fantasy Baseball purposes, it's kind of ... meh.
That's generally the way it goes. The most significant moves for real baseball are often some of the least significant for Fantasy Baseball because they typically involve players of such high caliber that their production will translate anywhere. Freeman is such a player.
He's been as steady as any hitter you could name over the past decade and especially since his power breakthrough in 2016. He's consistently among the leaders in line-drive rate, excels at hitting the ball the other way, has only once been less than 90th percentile for expected batting average in the entire history of Statcast, and is such a perfect hitting specimen that his ceiling is basically his floor. So what are the Dodgers going to do for him that the Braves didn't?
Overall, the park factors for his old and new home are similar, but you might point out that Dodger Stadium is better for home runs specifically. You might also ague that the Dodgers lineup is even better than the Braves -- a debatable yet plausible premise. Here's one possible look at that lineup with Freeman now in the fold:
- Mookie Betts, RF
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Trea Turner, SS
- Max Muncy, DH
- Will Smith, C
- Cody Bellinger, CF
- Justin Turner, 3B
- Chris Taylor, 2B
- A.J. Pollock, LF
Intimidating stuff. It includes three former MVPs (Betts, Freeman and Bellinger) and another player (Trea Turner) who's consistently a first-round pick in Fantasy. Is that enough to elevate Freeman from a combined 200 runs and RBI to 220 or 230? Maybe, but it's asking a lot to go right, for everyone to perform at full capacity and stay healthy and all that.
Of course, we've already seen that version of Freeman because the Braves had one of those years when everything went right in 2019. He finished with a combined 234 runs and RBI. So if in recent history, he already delivered the sort of outcome we're hoping for, has the range of outcomes actually changed? Probably not. His chances for that 100th percentile outcome may be slightly improved now, but it isn't a night-and-day difference from his 50th percentile outcome. Again, for a hitter this perfect, the ceiling is basically the floor.
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Practically speaking, what am I saying? I'm saying that if you didn't already value Freeman as a first-rounder, you probably should have. Factoring in sheer consistency and weighing against the possibility for failure, he's a nearly foolproof pick. I can understand him going after the big base-stealers in leagues that use traditional 5x5 scoring, but setting that category aside for the four others, you simply won't find better than Freeman.
But that's the way I felt even before this move. Will the fanfare of him going to this team, of all teams, elevate his ADP from 16th, past Kyle Tucker and Betts, and into the top 12? Possibly. But if so, it's less about his change in circumstances than what that change in circumstances accentuated.
The fallout of this deal goes beyond just Freeman, of course. There's less pressure on Muncy to man a position now, which is noteworthy since he's attempting to play through UCL damage in his elbow. There's also no longer a spot for Gavin Lux, which doesn't mean he doesn't play but that he likely steals at-bats from both Chris Taylor and A.J. Pollock, two of the thriftier Fantasy Baseball targets in this lineup.
It's basically a return to the status quo for those two, then, because the Dodgers have never been lacking in players in need of at-bats. One of Freeman's caliber is sure to get all he can handle. The rich have indeed gotten richer.
