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There's been a lot of talk lately around baseball about how "slow" this offseason has been. I don't really buy it – I'm old enough to remember when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed record-breaking contracts after pitchers and catchers reported – but it is true that there hasn't been a ton of action lately. And the market around Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, two legitimate, in-their-prime stars, has been weirdly quiet, at least publicly.

Something else that is probably contributing to the perception of a slow offseason: We expected there to be multiple $100 million contracts doled out to players coming from Japan to the majors, and … that definitely didn't happen. Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murekami, and Kazuma Okamoto combined for $151 million across their deals, with both Murekami and Imai falling well short of expectations with the deals they signed with the White Sox and Astros, respectively.

And that matters! While lowly Fantasy analysts have access to all kinds of in-depth information about major-league (and, increasingly, minor-league) players stateside, that equivalent information is a lot harder to come by for players in Nippon Professional Baseball. At least in the public sphere. MLB teams surely have access to all of the granular data they want about these players, which creates (even more of) an information gap between the public and private spheres. 

And the fact that the people with access to that information didn't view Imai and Murakami as immediate difference makers in MLB should color our perception of these players. A few weeks ago, I did an in-depth breakdown of the biggest names coming over from Japan and Korea, and I was very bullish on all three of these names for Fantasy. Now, after signing, it's time to reassess. 

Let's look at each of these three big names, why they might have signed for less than expected, and how that should influence how we view them for Fantasy in 2026: 

Re-assessing the NPB imports

Tatsuya Imai with the Astros

I expected Imai's market to be something like Framber Valdez's, which is to say, I expected MLB teams to value Imai as more of a front-of-the-rotation starter than a mid-rotation guy. At three years, $54 million, it's hard to say that was the case, especially when you compare that to some other contracts signed in recent years. 

This offseason, Dylan Cease signed for $210 million, and while we can quibble about Cease specifically being a front-of-rotation starter, that's certainly what the money would suggest. The next biggest contract signed by a free agent starter so far is Michael King's three-year, $75 million deal. That deal serves as a helpful comparison point for Imai, because both deals offer the player the opportunity to opt out after each of the first two seasons and hit the market again for a greater payday. 

And that comparison does not look great for Imai. He came in around $7 million per year below King's for effectively the same contract terms, and while King is certainly more proven at the MLB level, he's also almost exactly three years older than Imai and is coming off a season where he made just 15 starts while dealing with shoulder and knee issues. The fact that King was able to still lock in $75 million guaranteed suggests teams aren't that concerned about an injury history that stretches a lot longer than just last year's issues; the fact that he wasn't able to get more suggests MLB teams aren't totally sold on him either.

And he was still able to get nearly $7 million more per year than Imai. Sure, Imai is unproven at the MLB level, but so was Kodai Senga, who got $75 million guaranteed two offseasons ago despite being around three years older. Shota Imanaga also got $53 million guaranteed from the Cubs that same offseason while also being three years older than Imai at the time. 

Looking at other recent pitcher contracts, Imai's deal compares to the likes of this:

That doesn't scream "We think Tatsuya Imai is a difference maker," does it? That screams, "We need someone to make 30 starts at the back end of our rotation who won't kill us." 

Those aren't totally useless pitchers for Fantasy, but none of them are guys we are particularly excited about. Kikuchi was probably the exception coming off his deal, when he had a 167.9 ADP last offseason, and that's probably a pretty fair spot for Imai's price to land after this signing. 

Because there are still plenty of things to like about Imai's skill set. He's got a low arm angle that should help his mid-90s fastball play up a bit – it has been comped to Joe Ryan's fastball, an effective pitch despite less-than-elite velocity – and he has a full arsenal of secondaries. Those secondaries are headlined by, as usual for pitchers coming over from Japan, an excellent splitter, plus a funky slider with backwards movement – it moves arm-side, rather than glove-side, which should help keep hitters off-balance. 

Which is to say: I still think Imai is well worth drafting. And it's possible he was willing to settle for a surprisingly small contract in order to lock in those opt-outs that could unlock seriously significant upside. He's betting on himself while maintaining a $75 million cushion if he fails, and honestly, it's a nice gig if you can get it!

But the idea that Imai would be viewed by MLB teams as a difference maker sure didn't come to fruition. And, since those MLB teams know more about Imai than those of us working in the public sphere do, I'll defer to their judgment. Ranking him around where Kikuchi was coming off the board a year ago makes a lot of sense. Let's just hope his 2026 goes better than Kikuchi's 2025 did!

Munetaka Murakami with the White Sox

Like Imai, Murakami bet on himself in his two-year deal with the White Sox. However, his contract notably doesn't include an opt-out after that first season, and his $34 million number is even more shocking. We're talking about a 26-year-old with legitimate plus-plus power, and he ended up settling for less money than a 32-year-old Jorge Polanco got, after; he'll make just $5 million more over the next two seasons than Ryan O'Hearn! 

If you compare Murakami to other recent hitters from Japan or Korea, it looks even worse, too:

Suzuki is the only unqualified success among those three, and Yoshida's contract with the Red Sox was almost immediately underwater in ways that might be relevant for how the market looked at Murakami. Yoshida and Murakami are very different types of hitters, but it's Yoshida's inability to handle left-handed pitching or prove a competent defender anywhere on the field that has really created headaches for the Red Sox over the past two seasons. You could live with a platoon bat who can handle multiple defensive positions, and you can find room for a defensive liability whose bat needs to be in the lineup; it's a lot harder to justify it when you have the kinds of limitations Yoshida does.

And I think MLB teams fairly have those concerns about Murakami. He had massive swing-and-miss issues in Japan that are likely to be exacerbated by the higher level of competition he'll face in MLB, and Murakami might be a limited enough defender that even first base isn't necessarily a fit for him. If he's mashing 30 homers a year and at least holding his own against lefties, the White Sox will be thrilled even if he's a poor defensive 1B or even just a DH. If not … well, nobody's beating down the Twins' door to give up a big trade package to secure the rights to pay Matt Wallner during his arbitration years, you know? 

I still think Murakami is worth drafting in all leagues in 2026 because there is serious power potential here, and something like Taylor Ward's 2025 – he had 36 homers and 189 combined runs and RBI despite hitting just .228 with 175 strikeouts – is within the realm of possibility. The contact concerns are real, and it's enough to keep him more in the CI or Util discussion, but it would be a mistake to treat him like a total non-factor, too. His ADP in NFBC drafts since his signing is 219.97, and that seems like a perfectly fair price; Murakamai is ranked 202 for me, so if anything, it's a slight discount for me. He'll be a priority later in drafts where I need power. 

Kazuma Okamoto with the Blue Jays

Okamoto is the most straightforward of this trio, since his contract came in right around expectations. The 29-year-old landed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Blue Jays, and while that isn't superstar money, it's not a deal the Blue Jays would happily swallow if he's a total bust, either. They're paying him a bit more than Jurickson Profar got last season from the Braves and a bit less than Tyler O'Neill got from the Red Sox on a per-year basis, with an extra year tacked on top. That's a legit starter commitment, and despite some talk about the Blue Jays viewing him as a "utility player," I fully expect Okamoto to be in the lineup nearly every day for the Blue Jays. 

That doesn't mean we should just ignore that "utility player" talk, though. Okamoto is viewed primarily as a corner infielder, but he's also played a bit of outfield in his career and might be able to handle second base in a pinch, and that versatility is very much in keeping with how the Blue Jays have built their roster around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Okamoto might primarily handle third base, but the Blue Jays have a very fungible lineup and Okamoto being able to slide around to multiple spots will help his ability to get more plate appearances – and, ideally, multiple eligibilities for Fantasy. 

Okamoto's best-case scenario probably sees him emerge as a less impactful player than either Murakami's or Imai's best-case scenarios. But his skill set might be easier to project for an immediate impact than Murakami's, certainly. Something like the last few good post-Coors seasons of Nolan Arenado's career feels like a reasonable best-case scenario – remember, Arenado hit .271 and averaged 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 75 runs in his first three seasons with the Cardinals. Okamoto has a similar blend of contact skills and pull-side loft to approach that even with mostly middling raw power, and even a more median projection could still make him pretty useful in a Brandon Nimmo-without-steals kind of way. 

And Okamoto's price remains very reasonable, with his ADP sitting outside of the top 300 in that same span where Murakami's has settled around 220, and even in three completed drafts since the signing, he has only gone inside of the top 300 in two of them. Okamoto may not be a superstar, but he looks like a very solid end-of-draft dice roll in 12-team leagues.