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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Is Miguel Sano about to go off? What does Spencer Turnbull's no-hitter mean?
Also, what to make of Tucker Davidson and Kris Bubic?
By
Scott White
•
3 min read
All right, friends and neighbors. Help me out with this one.
A 28-year-old who not so long ago was thought to be one of just a handful of players capable of a 50-homer outcome snaps out of a season-long slump with a three-homer game. Meanwhile, another 28-year-old heretofore regarded as no more than a streamer type throws a no-hitter in a season when no-hitters have become a near-weekly occurrence.
Who's your headliner for Waiver Wire?
With apologies to Spencer Turnbull and the entire Turnbull clan, the diminishing historical significance of his one-outing feat pales in comparison to what a Miguel Sano turnaround could mean for an environment so lacking in impact bats -- you know, the sort of environment where no-hitters are a weekly occurrence.
That's not to say Sano is an automatic pickup or worry-free all of a sudden. He remains the epitome of a high-variance hitter -- one of the worst at making contact but one of the best at inflicting damage when he does. The latter hasn't been true for him this year, which is why he's batting just .171, but seeing as his infield-fly-ball rate is verging on 30 percent, it's fair to say he hasn't been squaring up the ball so far.
If Tuesday's performance was the start of him doing that, then he could help you make up ground in the home run category in short order. I've mentioned that he's capable of a 50-homer outcome. Just pace out his 2019 numbers -- 34 homers in 105 games -- and he's there. He's also more than once been in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
But of course, there's also the possibility he recedes back into utter uselessness. Such is the dilemma of the high-variance hitter. Him being essentially free in the half of CBS Sports leagues where he's available makes now a good time to gamble if you do have that sort of ground to make up in a Rotisserie league. To get the full benefit, though, you have to be willing to ride him through thick and thin ... unless, of course, it becomes immediately clear that this three-homer game was just a one-off.
So what of Turnbull? His start Tuesday was legitimately impressive. He struck out nine, walking two, and his 19 swinging strikes represented a career high. He had 16 swinging strikes in his previous start, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts, and with two strong starts back-to-back, his season-long numbers are suddenly looking pretty good:
- Mike Trout is out 6-8 weeks! Who are some players you can look to add? Are Miguel Sano and Spencer Turnbull must-add players if they're available? We analyze it all on the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast. You can follow us to get the latest episodes on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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But again, he's no up-and-comer at age 28. He entered Tuesday's start with a career 4.49 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, averaging less than a strikeout per inning, and just two starts ago, his ERA for 2021 was 4.74. Of his 19 swinging strikes Tuesday, 12 came on the fastball, which has never shown to be much of a swing-and-miss pitch. Even with those impressive efforts back-to-back, his season-long swinging-strike rate is a modest 11.4 percent. It's also worth pointing out that the Mariners team he no-hit Tuesday was already no-hit once previously.
Maybe Turnbull has figured something out these past two turns that will see him soar to previously unimaginable heights, but I doubt it. As many surging starting pitchers as we've seen early this season, I'm struggling to move him into even my top 80 at the position.
I'll grant he's a more palatable pickup than both Tucker Davidson and Kris Bubic, who I'll be highlighting below, and with only 17 percent rostership, he's certainly worthy of mention in a waiver wire context. But in all honesty, my rest-of-season outlook for Turnbull isn't so rosy.
Here's who else stood out Tuesday ...
Possible waiver wire pickups
Austin Riley homered for the second time in as many games Tuesday (both to right-center) and is quickly making up ground in the one category where he seemed most bankable coming into the year. If he reclaims his power stroke without sacrificing his newfound plate discipline and up-the-middle approach, then the breakthrough long forecasted may be forthcoming.
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C.J. Cron came back from a 12-day absence for a strained back and picked up where he left off at the plate, going 3 for 4 even with Blake Snell dealing and the Rockies being away from Coors Field. He's now batting .415 (22 for 53) with five homers in his past 16 games and is living up to the preseason hype after a sluggish start.
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Nico Hoerner, also recently back from injury, had his own three-hit game Tuesday, showing no lingering effects from the forearm strain that sidelined him briefly. He has yet to connect for his first home run but is showing more extra-base pop, as was forecasted this spring. The hit tool is as good as you could hope for, and he's plenty fast enough to keep stealing bases. Get in before the breakout becomes obvious.
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Josh Staumont seemed to be emerging as the Royals closer when he converted three consecutive save chances toward the end of April. But then manager Mike Matheny brought him in for the seventh inning one day in early May only to see him melt down. The Royals haven't had a save since, giving us little idea where Staumont stood. He finally turned in his fourth save Tuesday, and his previous two appearances were to close out four-run leads. I feel like the job is his.
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In most leagues, you could probably wait to move on Tucker Davidson, but the 25-year-old left-hander impressed in his first start of 2021, in particular with his 15 swinging strikes on just 72 pitches. Eight of those whiffs came on his slider, which is a relatively new pitch that has quickly become his best. He had two strong seven-inning efforts at Triple-A prior to getting the call, allowing a combined one run on seven hits, so the Braves may have something here.
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Tuesday's outing was Kris Bubic's first start of the year, but his previous two relief appearances lasted five-plus innings. So we're talking basically three starts, and between them, he has allowed a total of five hits. The walks have been too high and the strikeouts too low -- a departure from his minor-league career in which his changeup often dominated -- but if he can maintain a 60 percent ground-ball rate, he may be useful nonetheless. I'd still like to see the changeup have more of an impact before I took the plunge.
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