Fantasy Baseball: Why Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jazz Chisholm aren't your ordinary prospect call-ups
These prospects are heavy in hype but light on production.
By
Scott White
•
3 min read
I'm not rushing to pick up third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes or shortstop Jazz Chisholm now that they're in the majors.
The easy response is to do just that whenever a prospect of note gets the call, and they are indeed prospects of note. But they're notable just as much for what they haven't done as what they have, and what they haven't done is produce at a level befitting their prospect standing.
It doesn't mean they aren't interesting. Hayes is the son of longtime major-league third baseman Charlie Hayes, who is perhaps best known for catching the final out of the Yankees' 1996 World Series win. Chisholm, meanwhile, is the first of what could be a wave of Bahamian talent set to enter the league. Both were consensus top-100 prospects coming into the season, and both were acquired at significant cost, the PIrates using their first-round pick to nab Hayes back in 2015 and the Marlins using Zac Gallen to grab Chisholm at last year's trade deadline. The pedigree is well established for both.
But what about the production?
We broke down Chisholm and Hayes, multiple triple-dongs and much more on Wednesday's edition of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Follow all our podcasts and subscribe here.
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If you're underwhelmed by Hayes' power numbers, you're not alone, especially given the offensive explosion we saw throughout Triple-A last year with the introduction of the MLB baseball (i.e., the juiced one). But would you believe his 10 home runs were a career high and his .411 slugging percentage represented only his second time over .400? Across five minor-league seasons, he slugged .399.
Yet there he was in his major-league debut Tuesday, hitting a double and home run across five at-bats.
YOUNG HAYES!#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/IWFeLhQmHh
— Pirates (@Pirates) September 2, 2020
I don't know. Looks like there may be a little bit of pop there.
As for Chisholm, the power certainly isn't what's lacking. He delivered a .220 ISO last year — and without the benefit of the juiced ball considering he spent all of his time at Double-A. But the bat skills themselves are pretty raw, as you might have deduced from the batting average. A 32.1 percent strikeout rate isn't the sort that most players would be able to navigate, and of course, he compiled it against much lesser competition than he's bound to face in the majors.
So for both prospects, it's pretty obvious what could go wrong, And yet the scouting reports speak of their upside and likelihood of developing into first-division regulars.
Part of the issue here is we're blind to whatever developing they've done at the alternate training site, where media coverage is sparse and the stats aren't made public. For instance, Chisholm cut his strikeout rate down to 25.5 percent in 94 plate appearances after joining the Marlins organization late last year. If that improvement carried over, he may indeed be poised for big things as a power/speed threat up the middle.
Chisholm's profile is especially volatile and seems likely to end with him either booming or busting. Hayes at least puts the bat on the ball, and his defensive prowess should keep him in the lineup regardless of whether the power fully manifests. But the scouting reports speak of potential power, and with his sparkling debut Tuesday, I can't help but be reminded of the way Francisco Lindor broke into the league, having contributed little more than a high contact rate and slick defense in the minors. But as soon as he got to the majors, it's like a flip switched and he took off.
That's the hope for these two — that the arrival of what seemed like the inevitable will be what finally brings out their best — and the precedent for it goes beyond just Lindor. Given how loaded the third base and shortstop positions are, though, you're probably not in a place where you have to throw up a Hail Mary for either, in which case you're better off sitting back and watching it all play out.
Hayes and Chisholm may not be priority pickups, but they're definitely players to monitor. And I'll be among the first to leap if either shows signs of going the Lindor route.
