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Arrieta allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out four over eight scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday.

The results were much better than eight swinging strikes and 17 of 28 first-pitch strikes would suggest. That's been a theme throughout the season, with Arrieta posting a top-10 ERA in the NL so far and outperforming the estimators by close to a run. Some pitchers can stave off regression for longer than others, but with Arrieta having just a 9.8 percent K-BB rate, it's wise to expect some regression over the remainder of the season. He lines up to face the Padres in San Diego this weekend.

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