The Windup is a weekly look at pitching trends that will affect your Fantasy outlook.

Before the season began, most experts looked at the Reds' pitching staff and figured there was no way the team could contend. The collection of has-been and never-were hurlers also prompted sideways glances and sneers from Fantasy owners.

Yet after 38 games, Cincinnati is only three games out of first place in the NL Central and quality pitching is a prime reason the Reds have played much better than expected. The model for Cincy's proficiency has been closer Danny Graves.

Graves didn't command much attention on Draft Day, as owners were skeptical of him after he was making a transition back to relief. Graves had endured a forgettable season as a starter in 2003, and even though he had been a quality closer in the past, Fantasy leaguers had certainly lost respect for him.

Yet Graves has been the most productive fireman in the game in the season's first two months, locking the door in 17 of the Reds' 20 wins. Graves doesn't finish with the same flash as other top relievers, but there's no arguing with the results.

Because Graves doesn't dominate hitters in the same manner as an Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera, it is widely assumed that it is time to trade him while his value is at his highest. If you can get a great deal for Graves, why not? But don't move him just because you are expecting a major falloff.

It's certainly not realistic to expect him to keep up his current pace all year, because that would give him 80-plus saves, a number you might only earn with him on a video game. Still, Graves has proven how reliable he can be again, and it's clear he'll remain an above-average closer. So don't get rid of him unless you get an absolutely great trade offer.

Under the new regime of GM Dan O'Brien and manager Dave Miley, the Reds are overachievers, and their starting pitchers have certainly performed much better than expected. Corey Lidle was chased after five innings on Tuesday, allowing six runs. Yet he has been very efficient on the road so far, not allowing more than three runs in any of his three starts. Lidle is a good starter on the road, and he is a good choice when the matchups are right.

No starter, however, has been a better example of the surprising Reds than Paul Wilson, who is off to a great start a decade after being hyped as a possible superstar. Wilson, who has endured very disappointing and frustrating times in the majors, has won all five of his decisions.

There is no doubting Wilson's toughness, and he has pitched well. Yet Wilson simply cannot be expected to keep such a pace up, and unlike Graves, he should be moved if you can get good value for him right now. Wilson's pitching style makes him prone to arm problems, and it's only a matter of time before hitters have less trouble with his breaking stuff than they have had.

Aaron Harang has been nearly as impressive as Wilson, yet it's a bit less of a surprise in his case. While his record also might be something of a mirage, Harang has begun to evolve by throwing strikes more consistently and making smart pitches in key situations. Even if his production drops off, he'll still be reliable enough to use in mixed leagues.

Jose Acevedo has been erratic as always. But Todd Van Poppel, who took over a rotation spot from a past overachiever, the departed Jimmy Haynes, has looked very formidable in his first two starts for the Reds. He shut out the Dodgers for six innings in his most recent turn. Van Poppel, however, has teased Fantasy owners before, only to disappoint them.

The Reds themselves are certainly teasing Fantasy owners right now. Yet there is certainly a new attitude in Cincinnati, and even if most of the pitchers fall back into mediocrity, you'll be able to depend on them when the matchups are favorable. And don't expect anything less than solid numbers from Graves the rest of the way.

Scott Engel is the 2003 champion of the Krause Publications Experts League.