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Ten Kentucky Derby hopefuls will vie for qualifying points at the 2025 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty and Holy Bull runner-up Tappan Street will be in the 2025 Florida Derby field and will try to stay strong after already impressing at Gulfstream. Kentucky Derby qualifying points will awarded on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale at the Florida Derby 2025, which has a post time of 6:48 p.m. ET. Sovereignty is the 8-5 favorite in the 2025 Florida Derby odds, followed by Madaket Road at 7-2 and Disruptor at 4-1. Tappan Street is 5-1 to win among the 2025 Florida Derby horses. With several talented three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions. 

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Last November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score.

For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Florida Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Florida Derby predictions

One surprise: Menez is fading Sovereignty, even though he is the betting favorite at 8-5. Sovereignty won by a neck in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, his first race following a four-month layoff period. The victory was impressive given the three-year-old reportedly wasn't racing at 100%. The expert expects Sovereignty to be even better in the Florida Derby, but has his doubts this son of Into Mischief can pull off another win at less than 100%.

"He clearly is the horse to beat, but is he good enough to win this race again at less than 100%, knowing the big goal-the Kentucky Derby-is on the horizon?" Menez told SportsLine. "Sovereignty is the horse to beat, but he isn't the horse to bet, especially at 8-5 or shorter." You can see all of Menez's 2025 Florida Derby bets here.

How to make 2025 Florida Derby picks

Instead, Menez's top pick is a horse who "has been training up a storm" and "provides the best value." He also is high on a double-digit longshot coming off a "sneaky good" effort. He is including these horses in his 2025 Florida Derby bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.

So what horse wins the Florida Derby 2025? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Florida Derby, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday, and find out. 

2025 Florida Derby odds, contenders, post positions

HorseOddsPicks
Neoequos10-1SEE PICKS
Cool Intentions20-1SEE PICKS
Smoken Boy30-1SEE PICKS
Disruptor4-1SEE PICKS
Indecisiveness30-1SEE PICKS
Jimmy's Dailys12-1SEE PICKS
Enterdadragon30-1SEE PICKS
Madaket Road7-2SEE PICKS
Tappan Road5-1SEE PICKS
Sovereignty8-5SEE PICKS