What's next for the USMNT after draw in Azteca?
Jurgen Klinsmann has shown, once again, he can coax his team to terrific road results against heavily favored teams. But the job of qualification will require beating underdogs at home, too.
By
Jerry Hinnen
•
6 min read
"If a draw is like kissing your sister," one Twitter wag said of the U.S. Men's National Team's emotional 0-0 tie in Mexico City, "this is like making out with Salma Hayek."
Given that the USMNT had visited the impregnable Azteca stadium 14 times previously in World Cup Qualifying and come back with a grand total of one point taken off their archrivals, that's an accurate metaphor. But this was still only Game 3 of the 10-match Hexagonal grind, and if Tuesday night represented an exciting flirtation with greatness, it's not enough for a squad that still must prove it can go all the way (ahem) to Brazil.
In some ways, this was the easy part for Jurgen Klinsmann. With a badly shorthanded roster and the U.S.'s terrible record on the road at El Tri, the Americans were free to play with only the barest hint of pressure -- either to avoid making a backbreaking mistake, from a psychological standpoint, or to have to send numbers forward, from a tactical one. The result was a team that played with a loose, comfortable confidence at the back that had enough numerical cover to make up for its infrequent breakdowns ... and one that came away with the critical result that defensive performance earned.
But if there's anything Klinsmann has proven during his almost two years in charge of the national side, it's that he's capable of coaxing surprising results away from home. He'd already beaten Mexico in Mexico once, albeit in a low-stakes friendly; he's beaten Italy in Italy; he's drawn Russia in Russia; he's beaten Slovenia in Slovenia (a not-insignificant accomplishment for a program that's struggled nearly as badly in Europe as it has south of the border). Even if the deluge of injury- and illness-related absences -- not to mention, you know, it being Mexico in Mexico -- meant that a point Tuesday was unlikely, Klinsmann's record also suggested it would always be possible.
What Klinsmann hasn't yet fully proven is that he's capable of delivering the high-pressure home victories over CONCACAF's Central American and Caribbean nations that are even more essential to World Cup qualification than the occasional point on the road. The U.S. looked less-than-convincing in narrow wins over Jamaica and Antigua in the last round of CONCACAF qualifying, and gave up an early goal at home to Guatemala to put its entire qualification in doubt before coming back for a 3-1 victory. In the final friendly before the Hex, Klinsmann saw a month's worth of training camp produce a dismal 0-0 draw against Canada. And as crucial as the three points were, the 1-0 "SnowClasico" victory over Costa Rica last week is just this side of useless when it comes to projecting future U.S. performance, given that conditions ranged from "almost playable" in the first half to "utter farce" in the second.
That's not to say that with the Azteca trip in the rearview, there aren't positives heading into June's away match to Jamaica and must-must-win home dates against Panama and Honduras. Omar Gonzalez took all of three qualifiying starts to cement himself as the U.S.'s highest-ceilinged central defender since Eddie Pope, and whether he's paired with the impressive Matt Besler or Geoff Cameron, the heart of the U.S. defense looks stronger than it has in years. Michael Bradley continues to star as the calm, collected, and occasionally explosive box-to-box midfielder the U.S. has rarely, if ever, had. And goalkeeper Brad Guzan's stellar season at Aston Villa and now back-to-back qualifying shutouts has given Klinsmann legitimate reason to consider dropping mainstay Tim Howard if his recovery from broken vertebrae doesn't go as planned.
But Klinsmann also has several pivotal questions to answer before those June qualifiers:
Can Clint Dempsey operate as the team's offensive engine if Landon Donovan doesn't return? With the U.S.'s all-time leading goalscorer currently on sabbatical and unsure if he'll ever play for the Yanks again, Klinsmann has installed Dempsey as the team's central offensive hub -- Jozy Altidore in front of him, with attacking midfielders on either flank -- and the results have been mixed at best. Against Mexico Dempsey often seemed unsure when to play the possession game with Bradley and Maurice Edu or when to turn and attack, and in the end wasn't particularly convincing doing either. Even accounting for the difficulty of playing in either the Azteca or a blizzard, the bottom line is that the U.S. attack generated one shot on goal across two games, a worrying sign for the team's ability to break down the packed defenses Panama and Honduras will put on display. Dempsey's best position still seems to be as an out-and-out striker, but with Donovan absent, does Klinsmann even have the option of returning him to the front line?
Why can't he get anything out of Jozy Altidore? Altidore still has yet to score from the run of play in the Klinsmann era, despite becoming one of the most prolific American goalscorers ever seen in Europe over his past two seasons with Dutch club AZ Alkmaar. While Altidore has provided the occasional incisive pass or good passage of build-up play, his looks at goal have been few and far-between, and his frustration at being subbed for Eddie Johnson in the second half vs. Mexico was palpable. Are his struggles a product of a lack of service -- see above -- or a disconnect between himself and Klinsmann, or both? Whatever the answer, Klinsmann can't afford for his most talented natural striker to continue to be an offensive afterthought.
Will the wide players step up? Of course, both Dempsey's and Altidore's jobs would be easier if they could get a little more support from the flanks. Herculez Gomez and Graham Zusi put in four soild, hard-working shifts as the wide midfielders against Costa Rica and Mexico -- Zusi's defensive work was particularly impressive -- but the offensive impact still left something to be desired. The U.S. has also traditionally gotten attacking help from its defensive wingbacks, and while Cameron and DaMarcus Beasley did as well (or better) in those roles as could reasonably be expected, they also made clear that getting Timmy Chandler (on the right) and Fabian Johnson (on the left) back for June is necessary if there's going to be any offensive punch from those positions.
In the end, there's more reasons to think the U.S. will be successful going forward than not. It's not hard to see Gonzalez's ascension pairing with Johnson's and Chandler's return to create an airtight defense, Bradley continuing to own the center of the field, some combination of Donovan, Zusi, Eddie Johnson, Brek Shea and possibly central attacker Joe Corona (via a bump of Dempsey wide) solving the wide midfield issues, in turn unleashing Altidore, and the U.S. dominating their June matches on their way to a simple qualification.
By the same token, though, it's almost just as easy to see the U.S. attack getting bogged down by the weight of Altidore's and the wide attackers' ineffectiveness, Bradley not getting enough help in midfield, the pressure of delivering three points at home causing some all-too-familiar slip-ups in a young defense, and a series of June draws paving the way for a white-knuckle October.
Coming out of Mexico City with a draw is a tremendous accomplishment, and one Klinsmann and his team should rightly be proud of, given both the hamstrung roster and recent off-field distractions. But it hasn't guaranteed the U.S. a thing just yet.
