2016 U.S. Open: Expert picks and predictions before a tough test at Oakmont
Our golf writers give you their picks and predictions for what should be a terrific week of golf at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania
•
4 min read
Who are you picking at Oakmont? That's all anyone wants to know this time of year, right? And rarely has the decision at the top been more difficult.
The 2016 U.S. Open field is loaded with stars who have been tremendous already this season, including a few who have notched important wins leading up to the second major of the year.
Let's not delay any further. Here's our picks for the U.S. Open.
Kyle Porter, golf writer
Winner: Jason Day -- I keep coming back to the fact that I trust his game more than I trust anyone else's game. He's been a top five machine at U.S. Opens gone by and ticks all the boxes for Oakmont winners. Superior ball-striker. Mentally dogged. Possible all-time great. Check, check and check.
Top-10 lock: Jordan Spieth -- I keep coming back to the fact that the only two golfers in this field I trust completely are Day and Spieth. So I picked one to win and one to finish in the top 10. Spieth has become very Tiger-like in his ability to peak at the four most opportune times of the season.
Sleeper: Kevin Chappell (100-1) -- Chappell has made the cut at four of the last five Opens and has two top 10s in that time. Doesn't really fit the bill of an all-timer (to say the least), but I could see him getting frisky on Saturday and Sunday.
Top five in order: Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Matt Kuchar
Surprise prediction: Rory McIlroy will never be in contention over the event's four days. If I could get the right odds, I'd bet he'll never win another U.S. Open. It's just so incredibly difficult to stay mentally engaged for 72 straight brutal holes like the Open provides you. And this is not McIlroy's forte. Ignore the hot patch and the fact that he's never been better off the tee with his driver and pick him for Troon or Baltusrol.
Lowest round: 68
Winning score: 288
Winner's Sunday score: 73
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner: Dustin Johnson -- He's been so close so many times that at some point you have to think he'll break through. He has a T4 and T2 finish at the U.S. Open the last two years and already has eight top 10s this season. I believe in D.J., even if the likely result is more soul-crushing disappointment.
Top-10 lock: Jason Day -- Day is a machine. He's lights out on the greens and hits it a mile. There just aren't weaknesses in his game. Oh, and he's not feeling 100 percent, which means you can expect a strong, gritty showing from him this week.
Sleeper: Jason Dufner (100-1) -- He's finished T4, T4, CUT and T18 in the last four U.S. Opens, which is a pretty impressive record. He's playing solid golf coming in, and I think his demeanor is perfect for Oakmont, which will get under most everyone's else's skin.
Top five in order: Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker
Surprise prediction: Bubba Watson misses the cut. This might not be all that bold, even though Bubba is one of the world's best golfers. The U.S. Open simply doesn't set up well for his style and he can get extremely frustrated on the course. He's missed the cut three of the last four U.S. Opens, and I think it happens again this week.
Lowest round: 69
Winning score: 284
Winner's Sunday score: 71
Adam Silverstein, golf editor
Winner: Rory McIlroy -- I've kind of pigeonholed myself into picking McIlroy after predicting he would finally win the Masters each of the last two years and not wanting to replicate Kyle's choice of, you know, the No. 1 golfer in the world. Why McIlroy? Well, as Kyle said, he's waded through some rough showings and is currently in a hot patch, and he's never been better with his driver. Though Rory and U.S. Opens are not a match made in heaven -- he said he was happy to win one earlier in his career to get it out of the way -- that might very well be the mindset needed to overcome Oakmont. Picking a winner has been more about crossing off who won't tame Oakmont, so give me the Ulsterman.
Top-10 lock: Jordan Spieth -- Could have gone one of two ways here with Spieth or Day, and considering there's always the chance Day sprains an ankle, catches a stomach bug or doesn't get enough rest the night before Moving Day, I simply went with the safer bet here. Here are Spieth's last five major finishes: 1, 1, T4, 2, T2. How about a top-five lock?
Sleeper: Billy Horschel (80-1) -- The fescue at Chambers Bay frustrated Horschel last year, and Oakmont will not be any less infuriating. The difference? Horschel knows what to expect this time and respects the course. He went on a super-nova run to end the 2014 season and posted his best major finish since 2013 at the Masters.
Top five in order: Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Danny Willett
Surprise prediction: Bryson DeChambeau finishes ahead of half the former champions in the field -- and Zach Johnson. I really have nothing against Johnson, though I was spot-on predicting him to miss the cut at the Masters. His U.S. Open career includes five missed cuts and these finishes: T48, T45, T77, T30, T41, T40, T72. DeChambeau had a rough stretch a month ago but should do well enough at Oakmont to best Johnson and a handful of ex-champions in the field.
Lowest round: 67
Winning score: 286
Winner's Sunday score: 72
