rory-mcilroy-final-round-2024-cognizant-g.jpg
Getty Images

The final signature event before the year's first major championship headlines this week at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Traveling to a long-time PGA Tour stop and the house that the king built, the PGA Tour welcomes a smaller field of 69 men to Bay Hill Club & Lodge. This being one of the three player invitationals, the Arnold Palmer features a 36-hole cut to the top 50 players and ties as well as any players within 10 strokes of the lead.

One of the marquee players to fall on the wrong side of this number at the Genesis Invitational was Justin Thomas. The two-time PGA Championship winner has rediscovered his old form in the early stages of 2024 and hopes to bounce back as he begins his Florida swing. Thomas has only played the Arnold Palmer Invitational twice in his career, so he doesn't share similar course history as someone such as Scottie Scheffler.

The world No. 1 has been brilliant around Bay Hill in three attempts with three top 15s including a victory in 2022. Scheffler nearly defended his title last year, but it was Kurt Kitayama ultimately emerging from a clustered leaderboard that included the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth.

Also among those in the mix in 2023 was 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner Rory McIlroy. The world No. 2 has experienced a strange start to his PGA Tour season; solid runs of play have ultimately been undone by the occasional big number.

McIlroy hopes to keep his scorecard tidy this week as will Viktor Hovland, someone also searching for form. Amid a slight downturn in quality, the reigning FedEx Cup champion should relish in his return to Bay Hill -- a golf course that has yielded results of T10 and T2 his last two trips.

Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Matt Fitzpatrick are among those to round out the field as 14 of the top 15 players in the Official World Golf Rankings vie for the coveted red cardigan by tournament's end.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational schedule

Dates: Mar. 7-10 | Location: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge — Orlando, Florida
Par: 72 | Yardage: 7,466 | Purse: $20,000,000

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational field, odds

  • Scottie Scheffler (6-1): Since the beginning of the year, Scheffler ranks first in total strokes gained, first in strokes gained tee to green, first in strokes gained off the tee, first in strokes gained approach, third in strokes gained around the green and 66th in strokes gained putting among those in this field. The outlier is easy to spot, and it may come closer to his other statistical categories this week as Scheffler transitions from bumpy poa annua to Florida's Bermuda grass. Of those who have played at least 10 rounds at Bay Hill, the world No. 1 also ranks ... you guessed it ... first in total strokes gained.
  • Rory McIlroy (9-1)
  • Viktor Hovland (14-1): This is somehow Hovland's sixth appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he his batting 1.000 making the cut. The Norwegian fell victim to short-game woes in 2022 as bunker issues allowed Scheffler to race past him near the end. He gave it another good run last season but came up short again with ill-timed loose iron shots. That has been the story of Hovland's season thus far -- his ball striking is not up to the levels we'd expect from the world No. 4.
  • Xander Schauffele (16-1)
  • Patrick Cantlay (18-1)
  • Ludvig Åberg (20-1)
  • Jordan Spieth (22-1): Last we saw Spieth he was getting disqualified from the Genesis Invitational for signing an incorrect scorecard. That just about sums up the three-time major champion's start to the season; he has impressed with runs at The Sentry and WM Phoenix Open but fallen flat at tournaments such as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His around-the-green game has been sensational and carrying the load thus far, but this week may ultimately come down to his ball striking. It has been spotty at best, but it has a way of turning up at Bay Hill where he has a pair of T4s in two appearances.
  • Sam Burns (22-1): A lot of names are being tossed in the "hottest player in the world" race at the moment, and Burns has quietly made a case for himself. He has rattled off four straight top 10s thanks in large part to a significant improvement with the driver. The five-time PGA Tour winner is finding more fairways than usual, and that will be key for his chances this week given the penal nature of missing the short grass off the tee. In six prior trips, Burns has one top 10 and five forgettable outings.
  • Cameron Young (25-1)
  • Will Zalatoris (28-1): Difficult venues have brought out the best in Zalatoris in the beginning of 2024. A top 15 at Torrey Pines was followed up by a runner-up performance at Riviera where a win could have been in the cards if not for a streaking Hideki Matsuyama. Since debuting here with a T10 in 2021, Zalatoris has struggled to get things going. This has been primarily due to shortcomings with the putter, so with the broomstick in tow, there's a chance that could change in a significant manner this time around.
  • Collin Morikawa (28-1)
  • Max Homa (28-1)

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks


player headshot
Rory McIlroy
Winner (9-1): Big numbers have riddled McIlroy's start to 2024 as he has carded a triple bogey in each of his first three tournaments. While Bay Hill is among the most difficult golf courses on the PGA Tour, it has also been one of the kindest to the Ulsterman. McIlroy has rattled off seven straight top 15s including a win in 2018 and runner-up performance in 2023. He is driving the ball as well as ever, leading the field off the tee in his last two starts, which will set him up for a serious run at another big win.

player headshot
Matt Fitzpatrick
Contender (33-1): The driver has been uncharacteristically average so far in 2024, but if there is a place where Fitzpatrick can rediscover his off-the-tee prowess, it is Bay Hill. Like McIlroy, the Englishman has thrived around the par 72 with six top 15s in his last seven appearances, including a solo second in 2019. Fitzpatrick gained strokes throughout the bag last week at the Cognizant Classic in what may have been just the start of a big Florida swing.

player headshot
Chris Kirk
Sleeper (66-1): The price seems long for someone who's already won a signature event this season. A forgettable stint in California led Kirk into his title defense at the Cognizant Classic where he ranked top 20 from tee to green, off the tee and on approach. With his ball striking in tow, the Georgia resident should pose a realistic contender at Bay Hill where he has finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five starts, including a T5 in 2022.

Who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors and is up nearly $9,700 since June 2020.