Safeway Open odds 2017: Picks from model that called Jon Rahm's breakout

SportsLine simulated the 2017 Safeway Open 10,000 times after calling Jon Rahm's FedeEx Cup breakout

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 3, 2017 at 12:06 pm ET • 1 min read

The 2017-18 PGA Tour schedule tees off this week with the Safeway Open at the Silverado Country Club in Napa. Tony Finau is the Vegas odds favorite at 14/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the Masters and U.S. Open, calling career-defining wins from Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. It was all over Jordan Spieth at the British Open from the start and called the 24-year-old's third major win after the first round.

SportsLine's model also predicted Jon Rahm's run through the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Even though Rahm came into the playoffs with no finish better than 28th since May, their model projected him to finish in the top 10 in all four events. The results: Rahm finished no worse than seventh each time and surged to a fifth place finish in the final FedEx Cup Rankings.

Now that the Safeway Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for: Emiliano Grillo, who had just two top-10 finishes last season, makes a run at the title. Grillo held his own in the three playoff events he appeared in, and with a more open field in Napa, he's a strong dark horse pick to win it all.

Another curveball: Brendan Steele, last year's champion in this event and the fourth-biggest favorite at 25/1, doesn't finish in the top six. He's somebody to avoid picking at the very top.

Also, a golfer you're not even thinking about, who has a strong track record in this tournament, will make a run at the title. Anyone who bets on the big-time underdog could hit it big.

So who wins the 2017 Safeway Open? And what long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Safeway Open projected leaderboard from the model that predicted Jon Rahm's FedEx Cup Playoffs run to find out.