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Here is the 2016 U.S. Open field ranked from 1-25 based on how likely each golfer is to win this year's event, starting with the man who is still looking for his first Open. Remember, Oakmont almost always produces all-time historic champions. Pick with care.

1. Jason Day (best finish: second in 2011): The No. 1 player in the world also has the best cumulative score to par over the last five U.S. Opens and is one of only five players to make the cut at all five. This was an easy choice.

2. Jordan Spieth (won in 2015): Spieth's iron play might be a bit wayward (although that's probably overstated a little bit), but he has the makeup to win a fistful of these things before it's all over. Zero surprises if he defends his title successfully.

3. Dustin Johnson (second in 2015): I hate myself for putting him here, but he's the hottest player in the world (top five in four of his last six tournaments), and there's also this.

4. Rickie Fowler (T2 in 2014): Missed three of his last five cuts including The Players Championship and the Masters, but has top 10s in two of his last three U.S. Opens. He's in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and around the green (both of which should matter this week), but just 47th in strokes gained putting. I'm choosing to ignore the missed cuts and just pushing my chips to the middle of the table with Fowler.

5. Rory McIlroy (won in 2011): I'm inclined to think that McIlroy will never win another U.S. Open. He even almost admitted as much at the Masters this year.

"I never thought that the U.S. Open would be the first one just because of the way they usually get; the week that I won at Congressional, it wasn't really like a U.S. Open," said McIlroy. "It was more like a PGA Championship."

My only problem is that he's never looked more in control of his game and he has one finish outside the top 12 since February. So I'm not sure what to do here. I don't think he'll win, but I do think he'll contend.

6. Brooks Koepka (T4 in 2014): He has a little history at U.S. Opens and is coming off two top two finishes. His strokes gained around the green (not in top 120 on PGA Tour) concern me, but he drives it as well as anybody in the world. And driving will be at a premium, according to his pal Spieth.

"Fairways or first cut, I think, is the most important statistic for me to focus on this week," said Spieth on Monday.

7. Matt Kuchar (T6 in 2010): Kuchar has been playing great golf of late and is in the top 40 in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained around the green. Those will be two key stats at the end of a brutal week.

8. Phil Mickelson (second in 1999, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2013): Lefty has been playing great, but he's too wayward off the tee for my liking right now. That's fine at Augusta or a PGA Championship. It will crush you at Oakmont. Still, I can't quit him.

9. Sergio Garcia (T3 in 2005): Garcia has had a bit of a bumpy year highlighted by a win in his last outing at the Byron Nelson. Nobody shapes it like Garcia does when he's feeling good. I'm not sure what his lead has to be on the 10th tee on Sunday for me to feel good though. Fifteen? Twenty two?

10. Bubba Watson (T5 in 2007): Watson has two top 10s at major championships not named the Masters. One was a playoff loss to Martin Kaymer at Whistling Straits. The other was a T5 at the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2007.

11. Brandt Snedeker (eighth in 2015): Top 10 in each of his last two Opens. Nobody gets hotter with the short game. Nobody has better touch when he's on. I'm not sure I trust his approach game enough, but I could definitely see him mixing it up on the weekend.

12. Adam Scott (T4 in 2015): Has not been playing great since his two wins early in the year, but nobody without the name "Rory" drives it more purely than Scott when he's got it going on. He once told Justin Thomas he hit four greens in regulation over 36 holes in 2007 because everything at Oakmont is just absolute hellfire and brimstone.

13. Patrick Reed (T14 in 2015): Reed still (!) doesn't have a top 10 at a major championship. However, he's a top-10 machine this year and ranks No. 1 on strokes gained around the green. He might wrap himself in an American flag and fly on an eagle to the first tee box on Sunday if he leads.

14. Henrik Stenson (T4 in 2014): Hits it straighter than most. I'm just not sure I trust him at a major after missing each of his last two cuts.

15. Jason Dufner (T4 in 2012 and 2013): Dufner's average finish over the last five U.S. Opens when he's made the cut is 8.7. That's sneaky spectacular. He could be a force on the straight, fickle fairways this week. He hits it as well as anybody on tour, but I'm terrified of the putter.

16. Hideki Matsuyama (T10 in 2013): Made three straight cuts at Opens and has had a terrific year thus far. Can't you see Hideki just burning this thing down and finishing 3 under while nobody else can crack 4 over? I can. I'm not sure it will happen, but I can definitely see it.

17. Justin Rose (win in 2013): Beware the "injured but we're not totally sure how injured or if he's healthy yet" golfer? Rose has been out for a few weeks with a back injury but is good enough to give it a go. I'm not sure this is the course where you want to be "good enough to give it a go."

18. Charl Schwartzel (seventh in 2015): Schwartzel's numbers at U.S. Opens have surprised me. He's finished on average 17th in the last four Opens where he's made the cut, highlighted by a top 10 at Chambers Bay last year. We know he has the goods to close a major, but can he improve that driver enough to get in contention (No. 63 on tour in strokes gained off the tee).

19. Zach Johnson (T30 in 2011): This is the stat of the week so far for me. Zach Johnson has only finished in the top 30 once in his career at the U.S. Open. What?

20. Kevin Chappell (T3 in 2011): Chappell has two top 10s at majors, and both have come at U.S. Opens. One of just 21 players to make the cut at four of the last five, and he's having a great season. I love him as a dark horse this week.

21. Danny Willett (T45 in 2014): Only listing him here because he's our most recent major champ. He also nearly won the European Tour flagship event at the BMW PGA Championship. He's got the proper game for a U.S. Open, but is Danny Willett really going to win two straight majors?

22. Webb Simpson (won in 2012): Has come upon a hot patch of late and knows what winning a U.S. Open feels like late on Sunday. He's No. 170 in strokes gained putting which concerns me. No word on if there's a Squirrelman colleague to the Birdman who interrupted his trophy ceremony.

23. Louis Oosthuizen (T2 in 2015): Remember when Oosthuizen shot 29 on the back nine last year and nearly stole the tournament from Spieth and Johnson? Yeah, I do.

24. Jim Furyk (won in 2003): Nearly took this tournament at Oakmont in 2007. If being straight and narrow is a virtue this week (and it is!), then nobody does that better than Furyk. Would be higher if I wasn't worried about the lingering rust from his wrist injury last fall.

25. Billy Horschel (T4 in 2013): The U.S. Open is the major I can see Horschel winning. Top 25 in each of his last three Opens, and he's one of the greatest ball-strikers on the planet as evidenced by his round at Merion in 2013 in which he hit all 18 greens in regulation.

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Jason Day is ready for his first U.S. Open win. USATSI