The 2018 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Jan. 24. In the days leading up to that announcement, we here at CBS Sports will profile one Hall of Fame candidate per day, provided that player is expected to receive the five percent of the vote necessary to remain on the ballot another year. Today's candidate is Andruw Jones.

Jones spent parts of 17 seasons in the majors, and 12 of those came with the Braves. He also had late-career stints with the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, and Yankees. This year marks his first on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Now let's break down his case. 

The case for Jones

We can do this in one sentence. At his peak, Jones was one of the greatest defensive center fielders in baseball history, and along the way he hit 434 home runs.

Let's focus on that first element. If you were watching baseball during Jones' prime years, then you'll recall the mellow richness with which he played the vital position of center field. Sure, he made plenty of highlight-reel snares in his career. This one, for instance:

Or this one:

But a lot of what you remember about Jones is seeing him comfortably settled under a ball that, off the bat, you thought would surely find grass. His first step was zipper-quick, his routes were direct, and this scribe has never seen anyone read the ball off the bat like Jones did. Throw in his speed, range, and instincts, and you've got one of the very best defensive center fielders in the annals of this game. 

Pop over to the all-time defensive WAR leaderboards available at Baseball-Reference, and you'll find that Jones ranks 20th all-time with a dWAR of 24.1. That mark is also tops among outfielders. To be sure, WAR is something of a blunt instrument, but in Jones' case that lofty estimation squares with both his reputation (10 Gold Gloves) and the eye test. Everything suggests that Jones was a tremendous fielder at a vital up-the-middle position for many years, and you can plausibly argue that he's one of the best ever in center. 

Of course, Jones is more than that. As noted above, he topped 400 homers for his career, and he also put up a 111 OPS+ and slugged .486. As well, he stole 152 bases and took the extra base at an above-average clip. From 1997-2007, Jones played in no fewer than 153 games in any season. To sum it up, his career WAR of 62.8 ranks 105th all-time. 

The case against Jones

Working against Jones when it comes to the typical BBWAA voter is that he's shy of any notable offensive benchmarks. He didn't make it to 500 homers or even 2,000 hits, and he's comfortably outside the top 100 all-time in runs scored and RBI. 

In related matters, Jones' decline phase didn't help his cause. Despite reaching the majors at age 19 and ending his age-25 season with 185 home runs and almost 1,000 hits, Jones didn't achieve the "compiling" that was expected of him. Framed another way, Jones after turning 30 batted .214/.314/.420 (92 OPS+, versus a 116 OPS+ before he turned 30). Given his athleticism, he profiled as the kind of player who would age well, but he plainly didn't. It's fair to say that Jones emerged from the first half of his career on a Hall of Fame track but suffered too much of a drop-off the rest of the way. 

Jones' sudden decline was also apparent in the field. Analyst Chris Dial (@Pfeiffer86 on Twitter) of Baseball Think Factory, who developed the RED (Runs Effectively Defended) system and who helps determine Gold Glove winners as a member of the SABR Defensive Index committee, put it this way to me via email: 

Andruw came up as a 170-pound CF speedster. By 2000 he was a 185-pound speedster.  By 2004 he was a 210 plodder (weights from Topps baseball cards). His defense reflects that:

  • 1997-1999: +50 RED (DRS)
  • 2000-2002: +10
  • 2003-2007: -33 

And then he stopped playing outfield. He clearly wasn't getting it done his last five years, but baseball is slow to come off that reputation. It's there in his range factor, as well as his Zone Rating. Balls he used to glide to became diving catches. And he was just no good in 2006-07: -19 RED.

It's not really surprising to me -- today's studies show that the good outfielders are young and fast. It's unkind for everyone to hear, but it is what happens to everyone.

It's likely Jones bulked up with the intent of becoming more of a power hitter, which worked to a degree. However, the added girth exacted a price in the field, perhaps beyond what we'd normally expect in a past-prime player. 

So where does that leave us? If you use Jay Jaffe's JAWS system as a barometer, then Jones, relative to the existing Hall of Fame standards for center fielders, clears the bar on a peak basis but comes up short in terms of career value. Blend the two approaches and Jones again falls shy of the mean for inducted center fielders. In other words, he's very much a borderline candidate, and whether you support his candidacy may come down to whether you're a "big Hall" or "small Hall" sort. Since this scribe is among the former, I'd vote for him, in part because I think BBWAA voters tend to give short shrift to peak value in favor of career value. 

Will he make it?

No.  According to Ryan Thibodaux's public ballot tracker, Jones has been named on just 5.4 percent of publicly released ballots. This puts him in danger of falling off the ballot after only one year, and he's of course miles upon miles shy of the 75 percent mark needed for election. Certainly, Jones' case is stronger than that. As mentioned, he's on the line, but a ballot crowded with worthies (thanks to the BBWAA's running habit of not electing obvious HoFers) is working against him. Even in a less competitive environment, Jones wouldn't make it, but he likely wouldn't be hovering just above the cutoff line. If Jones is ever to get a plaque, it's going to be via committee many years from now.