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The Houston Astros eliminated the New York Yankees from the MLB playoffs in 2015, 2017 and 2019. New York will try to avoid falling into a two-game hole against Houston in this year's American League Championship Series when the teams square off in Game 2 on Thursday night. The Yankees took a 1-0 lead in the second inning of Game 1 on Wednesday, but Houston scored the next four runs in a 4-2 final. Right-handed pitcher Luis Severino will be on the mound for New York on Thursday, while left-hander Framber Valdez is going to make the start for Houston.

First pitch for Game 2 of the ACLS at Minute Maid Park is set for 7:37 p.m. ET. Houston is a -140 money-line favorite (risk $140 to win $100) in the latest Astros vs. Yankees odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Yankees are +118 underdogs, while the over/under for total runs scored is 7. Before making any Yankees vs. Astros picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the league championship round on a 20-13 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $400. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Astros vs. Yankees, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines and trends for Yankees vs. Astros:

  • Yankees vs. Astros money line: Houston -140, New York +118
  • Yankees vs. Astros over/under: 7 runs 
  • Yankees vs. Astros run line: Houston -1.5 (+158)
  • HOU: The Astros have won their last four home meetings with New York 
  • NYY: The Yankees are 3-14 in their last 17 ALCS road games 
  • Yankees vs. Astros picks: See picks here

Why you should back the Astros

Houston settled for a loss in the World Series last season and the Astros appear to be motivated to knock down anything in their path this year. Overall, Houston has won eight of its last nine games and it is unbeaten in the MLB playoffs 2022 thus far. The Astros have the rest advantage overall in this series and they have a remarkable 7-1 all-time mark at home against the Yankees in postseason play.

Valdez will get the start for Houston and he was electric in the regular season with a 17-6 record and a 2.82 ERA. His 194 strikeouts were a top-15 mark in the league this season. Houston has several hot bats going and Yuli Gurriel, Chas McCormick and Jeremy Pena all went deep in Game 1. Pena had three hits on Wednesday and is batting .350 overall in the playoffs. Yordan Alvarez has a couple playoff home runs already and he leads the team in walks in the playoffs this postseason as some pitchers are choosing to pitch around him. 

Why you should back the Yankees

Valdez set a major league single-season record by recording 25 consecutive quality starts, but he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks across 5.2 innings against Seattle in Game 2 of the ALDS. He has also struggled against New York during his career, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts. Valdez gave up three runs on two hits in six innings when he faced the Yankees in June. He will have to deal with red-hot outfielder Harrison Bader, who has already homered four times in 19 at-bats this postseason.

Severino has been solid against Houston during his career, posting a 3.82 ERA in seven career games. The Astros have averaged just three runs per game over their last three contests, needing 18 innings to score a run against Seattle last Saturday. New York led the majors in home runs this season and is poised to level this series on Thursday night. 

How to make Astros vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 7.3 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Astros vs. Yankees? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Yankees vs. Astros you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.