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Over the course of my coverage of the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, I've repeatedly called it a relatively weak class. There's a caveat to that, however. If we ignored any connections to PEDs or off-field issues, it would actually be pretty strong between Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramírez and Alex Rodríguez. 

Let's focus on A-Rod, statistically one of the greatest players in MLB history. There's an argument he sits in the top five there, if context behind the numbers is ignored. 

And yet, here are the voting percentages A-Rod has received in the Hall of Fame vote so far. 

  • 34.3%
  • 35.7%
  • 34.8%
  • 37.1%

I suppose one could try and spin that more than three-point increase year over year on the previous ballot and it's entirely possible he gets up into the 40s this time around. It's just that it is A-Rod's fifth time on the ballot out of a maximum of 10. 

Plus, we've seen where things end with a similar player before. Barry Bonds is Exhibit A. 

Like A-Rod, Bonds is an inner-circle all-time great, statistically. Bonds gathered some momentum late in his 10 years on the BBWAA ballot, plateauing between 59.1% and 61.8% for three years before getting a last-year bump up to 66%. That's still nine points short of induction. 

Unlike A-Rod, Bonds never tested positive or served a suspension once Major League Baseball put the Joint Drug Agreement into effect. There are some voters (including myself) who will withhold votes for players who were suspended by the league for a PED violation, but otherwise would vote for players who were never suspended. This is where A-Rod has a tougher road than Bonds ever did.

And this is why I don't think A-Rod has a chance to make the Hall of Fame any time soon. And when I say "soon," I'm talking within the next decade or two. I could see a sea change in the court of public opinion that causes an Eras Committee to re-evaluate things when it comes to A-Rod and Bonds, trickling down to Roger Clemens, Manny, Rafael Palmeiro and even Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, but it will be a long time before such a scenario is on the table. 

Let's make the case anyway. A-Rod played in parts of 22 seasons with the Mariners, Rangers and Yankees, hitting .295/.380/.550 (140 OPS+) with 3,115 hits, 548 doubles, 31 triples, 696 home runs, 2,086 RBI, 2,021 runs, 329 steals and 117.4 WAR. The three-time MVP won a World Series, 10 Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and made 14 All-Star Games. 

Usually when I discuss Hall of Fame candidates, I compare players to only players from their position. With A-Rod, he ranks so highly, we don't need to narrow it down. Among all position players, he is 12th all-time in WAR, 29th in slugging, 43rd in OPS, eighth in runs, 23rd in hits, seventh in total bases, 33rd in doubles, fifth in home runs, fourth in RBI, 37th in walks, seventh in extra-base hits and 16th in times on base. The most statistically similar players to him are Willie Mays, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson and Bonds. 

It's the type of resume that would've seen A-Rod fly into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, maybe even unanimously.

But. 

Yeah, there's that pesky "but." 

I've discussed at length before why A-Rod's Hall of Fame case is very complicated. The biggest thing working against him would be the 211-game suspension handed down by Major League Baseball for what the league called use and possession of PEDs "over the course of multiple years," skirting the testing system. He was accused of obstruction and attempted cover-up, too. 

I agree with A-Rod that Bud Selig in the Hall of Fame gives the esteemed Hall a look of hypocrisy and I'd love to kick Selig out (I never had a chance, but never, ever would've voted for him). Maybe sometime down the line I'll be persuaded to vote for A-Rod since Selig is in, but for others, as the old saying goes, "two wrongs don't make a right." 

For now, A-Rod seems like a hopeless Hall of Fame case and it's likely to stay that way.